Author Topic: NOAA's U.S. Winter Outlook 2017-18  (Read 340 times)

elagache

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NOAA's U.S. Winter Outlook 2017-18
« on: October 21, 2017, 10:48:42 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Most of you probably discovered this press release when it came out 2 days ago.  Alas, I didn't have time until now to actually search for it.  Has NOAA been doing a Winter Outlook for a long time?  If so, this is the first time I've noticed the general press picking up on it even if it is sent as a press release!  Here is link:

http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/us-winter-outlook-noaa-forecasters-predict-cooler-wetter-north-and-warmer-drier-south

The punch line is roughly as follows:  "NOAA forecasters predict cooler, wetter North and warmer, drier South"  The main uncertainty that they note is the potential La Niña event.  They claim it will be a relatively weak event, but of course they weren't even expecting that a few months ago.  There are maps on the press release so you can look at what is expected in your corner of da' USofA.

As is always true of such "outlooks" . . . . . "your actual mileage my vary (wildly!!)"

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]

Blicj11

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Re: NOAA's U.S. Winter Outlook 2017-18
« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2017, 06:31:00 AM »
I haven't see this previously so thank you for posting. I hope it its accurate.
Blick


elagache

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NOAA's U.S. Winter Outlook 2018-19
« Reply #2 on: October 18, 2018, 10:09:44 PM »
Dear WeatherCat observers of the seasons turning.

Another October tradition is NOAA's Winter outlook.  Last year's release is still accessible (click on the click of the first posting in this thread if you are curious.)  So I'll simply provide the link:

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/winter-outlook-favors-warmer-temperatures-for-much-of-us

It is difficult to summarize this outlook.  One takeaway is these two sentences:

"A mild winter could be in store for much of the United States this winter according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. In the U.S. Winter Outlook for December through February, above-average temperatures are most likely across the northern and western U.S., Alaska and Hawaii."

However, as usual with such forecasts, Caveat Emptor very much applies.

When it comes to precipitation these are the two bullet points:

  • Wetter-than-average conditions are favored across the southern tier of the U.S., and up into the Mid-Atlantic. Northern Florida and southern Georgia have the greatest odds for above-average precipitation this winter.
  • Drier-than-average conditions are most likely in parts of the northern Rockies and Northern Plains, as well as in the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley.

It does make interesting reading.  As to whether it should be filed under fiction or nonfiction - that is to be left to the reader's discretion! .  .  [biggrin]

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]

   

Blicj11

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Re: NOAA's U.S. Winter Outlook 2017-18
« Reply #3 on: October 19, 2018, 12:22:46 AM »
Thanks for sharing. Our governor (Utah) has just declared a sate-wide emergency for drought, which kicks in some conservation measures and ramps up awareness. Like most states in the west, the largest water user is the agricultural sector, but when you are in a drought, every drop matters. So we are doing our part here too.
Blick


elagache

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Such are the conditions . . . (Re: NOAA's U.S. Winter Outlook)
« Reply #4 on: October 19, 2018, 10:51:44 PM »
Dear Blick and WeatherCat concerned citizens of planet Earth,

Thanks for sharing. Our governor (Utah) has just declared a sate-wide emergency for drought, which kicks in some conservation measures and ramps up awareness.

My sympathies.  Not exactly a surprise, but indeed nothing hopeful in the weather pipeline.

Like most states in the west, the largest water user is the agricultural sector, but when you are in a drought, every drop matters. So we are doing our part here too.

I understand, but it does concern me that politicians treat situations like drought with the same sort of public appeals that occurred during World War II.  The two situation simply aren't comparable and as citizens we should be concerned about it.  The hope was that World War II would be won and then we would be free to "go back to normal."  The problem of drought isn't ever really going to go away and human populations are growing everywhere.  It simply isn't fair to ask long time residents to reduce their standards of living so that new people can take what once was their ration of water.  Moreover the "battle" between agriculture and residents is a fool's errand that too many people are tricked into.  Agriculture isn't simply a business - it grows the food everybody needs.  When agriculture is forced to cut back that means less food for everyone and those worst affected are the most vulnerable - the poor.

I'll be the first to admit I don't know what the answers are, but belt tightening most definitely isn't an answer.  Government leaders are supposed to be just that - leaders in solving problems like how to provide for sufficient water for all the needs.   Alas at a time when leadership is desperately needed - it is an extremely rare thing indeed.

Oh well, . . . . . Edouard