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A year without either an El Niņo or a La Niņa?

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elagache:
Dear WeatherCat Climate watchers,

Mid-summer is the first opportunity for use to get some idea of what we might expect in terms of El Niņo or La Niņa effects on our upcoming winter.  Well the prognosticators have weighed and the answer is - neutral!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

As the synopsis reads:

ENSO-neutral is favored (~50 to 55% chance) into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18

So does that mean we might have a "normal" winter this year?  I suppose we could always hope , but I sure wouldn't count on it!

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]

elagache:
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Earlier this summer, the Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWSand the International Research Institute for Climate and Society folks had predicted a neutral year with neither an El Niņo or La Niņa event.  Well things have changed and we are now under a La Niņa watch.  Here is the report:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

Here is a quote for the most relevant bit:


--- Quote ---A majority of the models in the IRI/CPC suite of Niņo-3.4 predictions favor ENSO-neutral through the Northern Hemisphere 2017-18 winter [Fig. 6]. However, the most recent predictions from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) and the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) indicate the formation of La Niņa as soon as the Northern Hemisphere fall 2017 [Fig. 7]. Forecasters favor these predictions in part because of the recent cooling of surface and sub-surface temperature anomalies, and also because of the higher degree of forecast skill at this time of year. In summary, there is an increasing chance (~55-60%) of La Niņa during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).
--- End quote ---

The past few La Niņa events have caused atmospheric rivers to become more intense and has brought a lot of moisture to the Western United States.  For those who forgot, last year was a La Niņa:

http://athena.trixology.com/index.php?topic=2221.msg22663#msg22663

So we may be in for another wet winter.

We'll just have to wait and see . . . . . .

Cheers, Edouard

Blicj11:

--- Quote from: elagache on September 16, 2017, 10:46:26 PM ---So we may be in for another wet winter.

--- End quote ---

Sign me up.

elagache:
Dear Blick and WeatherCat Western US drought flood? watchers?!?!??


--- Quote from: Blicj11 on September 24, 2017, 06:41:00 AM ---
--- Quote from: elagache on September 16, 2017, 10:46:26 PM ---So we may be in for another wet winter.

--- End quote ---

Sign me up.

--- End quote ---

I certainly don't want the drought to start up again, but the rains definitely did a lot of damage around here.  The roads have suffered a lot because of the extremes of the soil.  In the middle of the rains the ground swelled a great deal and now with the very hot and dry summer, the ground has contracted to another extreme.  California rode out last winter mostly in stride, but our luck might not hold out if we get battered by a series of atmospheric rivers again.

I sure wish moderation would once more return to "climatological fashion."

Grin and bear it!  Edouard

elagache:
Dear WeatherCat types affected by El Niņo and/or La Niņa,

The CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society have updated their El Niņo /La Niņa predictions and we continue to be under a La Niņa watch.  Here is the full briefing:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The punch-line is: "La Niņa conditions are favored (~55-65%) during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18."

This is further bolstered by the puzzling technical jargon to be found in the discussion for the first storm expected for this year on Thursday.  The offending sentence reads as follows (key text with my emphasis) :

"IVT progs are focusing on Thursday evening being the best shot for moderate rainfall (coverage has decreased, but a narrow band of values over 500 KG/m/s are now indicated)."

To those who forgot from last year - IVT stands for Integrated Water Vapor Transport and Kg/m/s is a measure of how much water vapor is being transported.  In other words, by decoding the technical jargon, it is clear that there was already the possibility for an atmospheric river event this early in October.  The forecast has since downgraded the potential rainfall, but those of you in harm's way of atmospheric rivers might want to start preparing . . . . . just in case! . . .

Cheers, Edouard

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