Author Topic: Weaker La Ni?a forecast  (Read 1965 times)

elagache

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Weaker La Ni?a forecast
« on: July 22, 2016, 08:32:37 PM »
Dear WeatherCat drought watchers,

The latest La Ni?a forecast is in and it is something of a surprise.  They aren't seeing the onset of La Ni?a that they expected.  While the forecast models still favor it, the current thinking is that it will start later and will be weaker than initially expected.  This could be good news for the Western United States drought situation.  Here is all the technical details:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

Stay tuned!

Cheers, Edouard

Blicj11

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Re: Weaker La Ni?a forecast
« Reply #1 on: July 22, 2016, 08:54:29 PM »
Thanks for posting.

As you say, good news for the western US. It's already working here. We've had a trace for two day in a row now.
Blick


elagache

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Back to a La Ni?a watch (Re: La Ni?a forecast)
« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2016, 11:51:59 PM »
Dear WeatherCat drought sufferers,

The Climate Prediction Center has put out its latest forecast regarding El Ni?o versus La Ni?a.  You can read it here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_oct2016/ensodisc.shtml

Unfortunately they are back to a La Ni?a watch.  The synopsis reads:

Quote
La Ni?a is favored to develop (~70% chance) during the Northern Hemisphere fall 2016 and slightly favored to persist (~55% chance) during winter 2016-17

Moreover they cite the following data:

Quote
ENSO-Neutral conditions were observed during September, with negative sea surface temperatures (SSTs) anomalies expanding across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean by early October (Fig. 1). All of the Ni?o regions cooled considerably during late September and early October, with the latest weekly value of Ni?o-3.4 index at -0.9?C (Fig. 2). Subsurface temperature anomalies also decreased toward the end of the month (Fig. 3), reflecting the strengthening of below-average temperatures at depth in the east-central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 4). Atmospheric anomalies across the equatorial Pacific edged toward La Ni?a during September, with a stronger tendency toward La Ni?a late in the month.

So whatever La Ni?a means in your corner of the world, you should probably prepare for it.

FYI, . . . . . Edouard

elagache

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An official a La Ni?a advisory (Re: La Ni?a forecast)
« Reply #3 on: November 20, 2016, 11:46:47 PM »
Dear WeatherCat drought sufferers,

I missed the November 10 announcement from the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation (Enso)
Diagnostic Discussion:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

They have upgraded the status from a La Ni?a watch to a full-blown advisory.  To quote from the synopsis:

Quote
La Ni?a conditions are present and slightly favored to persist (~55% chance) through winter 2016-17.

So whatever it means for you . . . . "Such are da' conditions that prevail" . . . . . .

Oh well,
. . . . . Edouard