Author Topic: Can someone decode this example of forecaster-speak?  (Read 614 times)

elagache

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Can someone decode this example of forecaster-speak?
« on: May 16, 2016, 03:38:23 AM »
Dear WeatherCat vigilant readers of weather forecasts,

I've suggested that we should fire all the diplomats in the State department and replace them with weather forecasters.  These guys truly seem good enough that they could tell you to "go to hell" such that you would actually look forward to the trip!

Nonetheless, from time to time their odd manner of speech does leave me scratching my head . . . . 

Okay, so they have stopped yelling at me but what do you'all make out of this paragraph from tonight's discussion here in the San Francisco bay area:

Quote
Models show the ridge apex retrograding towards Hawaii by midweek, which allows 850mb temps to cool and a low pressure system to descend into the Pacific Northwest from the Gulf of Alaska to fill the void. This low will lead to a cooling trend in the latter half of the week as well as a slight chance of rain for the North Bay. A general troughy pattern then takes shape over the greater region through next weekend and beyond.

Does anyone know precisely what a troughy weather pattern is supposed to be?

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]

Felix

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Re: Can someone decode this example of forecaster-speak?
« Reply #1 on: May 16, 2016, 10:28:57 AM »
Dear WeatherCat vigilant readers of weather forecasts,

Does anyone know precisely what a troughy weather pattern is supposed to be?



Based on the info that preceded, I assume it's merely a colloquial way of referring to a synoptic weather trough. But no, I don't know precisely

elagache

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Da' plot thickens . . . . . (Re: Example of forecaster-speak?)
« Reply #2 on: May 16, 2016, 11:24:02 PM »
Dear Felix and WeatherCat forecaster "interpreters,"

Does anyone know precisely what a troughy weather pattern is supposed to be?

Based on the info that preceded, I assume it's merely a colloquial way of referring to a synoptic weather trough. But no, I don't know precisely

Well as commonly happens the today's forecast provided further clues as to what was being "hidden from view."  One possibility was that they were referring to a "longwave trough" which keeps temperatures relatively cool along the coast.  However, that would be one trough - no need for adjective.  This afternoon's discussion in part reads:

Quote
 
Thursday will mark the beginning of a noted cooling trend that will last right through the weekend and likely into early next week. For Thursday winds will become strong over the ocean with gusty onshore winds Thursday afternoon ahead of an unseasonably deep and cold upper trough.

. . .

For reference the ECMWF has a general 0.25-0.50 of liquid for northern Sonoma County this weekend with a tenth or less for the greater Bay Area.

. . .

By May standards the pattern remains active and unseasonably cool with long range models keeping a trough over the West Coast. No big storms of note but above average confidence for below normal temps through most of next week.

So the phrase troughy meant a series of troughs coming through keeping things cool and potentially bring showers.  We are approaching one of weather forecastings "witching hours:" Memorial day.  Everybody knows that the Chamber of Commerce was sunny days with mild temperatures - so people go out and spend more.  Of course Murphy's law may well have "other plans."

Definitely stay tuned on this one!

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]