Author Topic: Latest report on El Niņo from Climate Prediction Center.  (Read 595 times)

elagache

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Latest report on El Niņo from Climate Prediction Center.
« on: October 09, 2015, 12:22:19 AM »
Dear WeatherCat El Niņo watchers,

I just located the latest report from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

Here is the relevant snippet:

Quote
During September, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were well above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). The Niņo indices generally increased, although the far western Niņo-4 index was nearly unchanged (Fig. 2). Also, relative to last month, the strength of the positive subsurface temperature anomalies decreased slightly in the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 3), but the largest departures remained above 6oC (Fig. 4). The atmosphere was well coupled with the ocean, with significant low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies persisting from the western to the east-central tropical Pacific. Also, the traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values became more negative (stronger), consistent with enhanced convection over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic anomalies reflect a strong El Niņo.

All models surveyed predict El Niņo to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2016, and all multi-model averages predict a peak in late fall/early winter (Fig. 6). The forecaster consensus unanimously favors a strong El Niņo, with peak 3-month SST departures in the Niņo 3.4 region near or exceeding +2.0oC. Overall, there is an approximately 95% chance that El Niņo will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

Across the United States, temperature and precipitation impacts from El Niņo are likely to be seen during the upcoming months (the 3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday October 15th). Outlooks generally favor below-average temperatures and above-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, and above-average temperatures and below-median precipitation over the northern tier of the United States.

This is still mostly technical jargon, but it does suggest that El Niņo will effect us in some way.   The big question is - how?

Cheers, Edouard

HantaYo

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Re: Latest report on El Niņo from Climate Prediction Center.
« Reply #1 on: October 10, 2015, 03:45:40 AM »
The effects are already here  [sweat2]- they have been since the spring.  September 2015 ended up being the driest September since keeping records (2004) and the second hottest after 2010.  We are just waiting for the drum  roll.