Author Topic: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Autumn 2014  (Read 1566 times)

elagache

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NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Autumn 2014
« on: October 01, 2014, 09:55:05 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Here is the latest 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for October:



Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for October through December:



Just as through the summer, the Climate Prediction Center insists there exists a broad stable climatic feature in the northwestern part of the United States.  As winter sets in they insist this band of warmer than normal temperatures will extend across most of the northern parts of the country.  I just took a look at the September report from WeatherCat and once more the CPC forecast was wrong.  We had an average high temperature of 80˚ F for September, a perfectly normal result.  I have no idea what sort of forecasting methodology they are using, but they are now on their third straight month of incorrectly forecasting the temperature variations in coastal northern California.


Note the use in all these graphs the extensive presence EC which stands for Equal Chances of either above, below, or normal conditions.  It is certainly odd, that the CPC can be so confident about some parts of the country, but admittedly clueless about immediately adjacent regions.


Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for October:



Here is the equivalent graph for October to December:



So, the Climate Prediction Center has put its reputation on the drought continuing in Northern California.  That should trigger new rounds of water conservation efforts by the state.  We'll see if the government trusts the CPC or not.

Since these posting seem to generate relatively low traffic, I'll post the data for November and December in this same thread.  That should make the data a bit easier to find.

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]

P.S. As always, I would be most interested how US "WeatherCatters" are seeing the weather in their local corner.  Is anybody seeing reliable climate forecasts from the NWS - Climate Prediction Center?

Blicj11

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Re: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Autumn 2014
« Reply #1 on: October 01, 2014, 11:08:41 PM »
As always, I would be most interested how US "WeatherCatters" are seeing the weather in their local corner.  Is anybody seeing reliable climate forecasts from the NWS - Climate Prediction Center?

Edouard:

The three-month precip forecast you posted at the end of August called for above normal rain in northern Utah. In the locale where I live, the average rainfall for September is 1.27 inches according to http://www.idcide.com/weather/ut/timber-lakes.htm

The actual as measured by my PWS was 5.01 inches. This makes the second month running that the NOAA precip forecast for my area was dead on.
Blick


elagache

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November's maps (Re: NWS - CPC forecasts - Autumn 2014)
« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2014, 10:44:50 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Here is the latest 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for November:



Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for November through January:



Just as through the summer, the Climate Prediction Center insists there exists a broad stable climatic feature in the northwestern part of the United States.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for November:



Unlike for October, now California is no longer predicted to remain in below normal rainfall - we'll see.

Here is the equivalent graph for November to January:



As usual, any comments about your actual experiences would be appreciated.

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]

Blicj11

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Re: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Autumn 2014
« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2014, 08:25:58 PM »
Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for October:

Edouard, the one-month precipitation chart you posted a month ago proved accurate for Northern Utah in October, although the NOAA chart wasn't helpful at all. It showed equal chances of being above at or below normal, which is the same thing as saying we have no idea what to predict. We were well below normal, which they would argue they predicted.

We did get 1/2 inch of snow here last weekend, but we need one of Reinhard's storm to produce over California and continue spreading joy eastward.
Blick


elagache

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December's maps (Re: NWS - CPC forecasts - Autumn 2014)
« Reply #4 on: December 01, 2014, 09:25:12 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Here is the latest 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for December:



That must be hard to swallow for all of you in the Midwest and East suffering from the cold.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for December through February:



Once more, the Climate Prediction Center insists there exists a broad stable climatic feature in the northwestern part of the United States.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for December:



Definitely good news for California if true.

Here is the equivalent graph for December to February:



As usual, any comments about your actual experiences would be appreciated.

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]