Author Topic: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Spring 2019  (Read 545 times)

elagache

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NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Spring 2019
« on: April 01, 2019, 11:09:28 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Spring has officially sprung and here is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for Spring.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for April:



This is rather typical of the "warming up everywhere" sort of forecast that the Climate Predication Center is more commonly likely to forecast around summer.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for April through June:



This outlook is definitely more complex.  Although besides the region of cold in the center of the country, it is perhaps more consistent than it might appear.  The Equal Chance means there is a 1/3 chance of heat for most of the country.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for April:



This is interesting because it forecasts above normal rain for a very large part of the country.  Once more the point about Equal Chance applies.

Here is the equivalent graph for April to June:



This graph is making a similar predication for the Spring season.  This is of course good for droughts but bad for flooding.  Speaking of flooding I've collected the current flooding forecast for the Spring season:



This figure is part of the NOAA Spring Flooding outlook press release.  As reported elsewhere on this forum, it is to going to be difficult season for the plains especially if the rains are heavy this Spring.

On the other extreme, here are drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for April:



The extra precipitation has helped most of the country.  Here is the equivalent 3 month outlook:



It paints an even more optimistic pictures of drought in the United States.

Since the data is out, I've decided to add the Wildfire predictions.  These come from the NICC - National Interagency Coordination Center.  Unfortunately, these come only monthly.  Here is April:



There are only small regions of increased fire risk within the continental 48.  The only exception being parts of Washington state suffering from drought and a curious line stretching across the Nevada, Utah, and Arizona border.  The situation in Alaska and Hawaii does seem serious nonetheless.  Here is the May outlook:



It is very similar to the April outlook.  It isn't until June that the outlook expands the threats:



For June wildfire threats start appearing in California even with all the rains and Arizona.  They also expand in Washington state.  However, the 4-corners region shifts to less likely fires presumably because of expected monsoon rains.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

Blicj11

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Re: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Spring 2019
« Reply #1 on: April 13, 2019, 03:54:58 AM »
These forecasts are sure nice for much of the western US, with regards to precipitation.
Blick


elagache

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May (Re: NWS - CPC forecasts - Spring 2019)
« Reply #2 on: May 01, 2019, 11:04:34 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Spring has officially sprung and here is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for Spring.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for May:



Interesting that hotter weather along the coasts and colder the middle.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for May through July:



It is a similar temperature outlook to the 1 month.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for May:



This is interesting because it forecasts above normal rain for a very large part of the country.  Only Oregon and Washington state are expected to get less.

Here is the equivalent graph for May to July:



This graph is making a similar predication for the Spring season.  This is of course good for droughts but bad for flooding.  There is no updated flood outlook, so you can look at the previous posting for the latest forecast.

On the other extreme, here are drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for May:



The extra precipitation has helped most of the country.  Here is the equivalent 3 month outlook:



It paints an even more optimistic pictures of drought in the United States.

Here are the Wildfire predictions.  These come from the NICC - National Interagency Coordination Center.  Unfortunately, these come only monthly.  Here is the updated May:



There are only small regions of increased fire risk within the continental 48.  The only exception being parts of Washington state suffering from drought and a bit of Arizona.  Here is the updated June outlook:



It is very similar to the May outlook, but starts to involve parts of California.  Here is July:



For July wildfire threats expand in California even with all the rains and Arizona.  They also expand in Washington state.  However, the 4-corners region shifts to less likely fires presumably because of expected monsoon rains.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

Blicj11

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Re: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Spring 2019
« Reply #3 on: May 02, 2019, 12:22:32 AM »
I like 'em. They are mostly headed in the right direction.
Blick