Author Topic: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Winter 2019  (Read 352 times)

elagache

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NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Winter 2019
« on: January 01, 2019, 10:11:35 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

The new year has arrived and here is the 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the start of Autumn.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for January:



This prediction is back to the typical above normal theme that is found on these predictions.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for January through March:



All I can say is "ditto."  Only regions of the South might be colder than normal.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for January:



This prediction isn't nearly as optimistic for the western United States as the previous predictions.  While the Southwest gets some El Niño benefit, the rest remains uncertain.  Once more there is a prediction of increased rain in the old South.

Here is the equivalent graph for January to March:



The increased rain in the Southwest deserts is consistent with El Niño.  I don't know what is the basis for the rain continuing across the rest of the South into the Atlantic seaboard.

Here are drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for January:



This prediction is of significant reversals into drought for a large swath of the West.

Here is the equivalent 3 month outlook:



This predicts continued hardship for Oregon and the Arizona New Mexico boarder regions.  The remainder of the regions are supposed to see an improvement in their drought situations.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

Blicj11

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Re: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Winter 2019
« Reply #1 on: January 02, 2019, 03:51:47 AM »
Today's low temperature here was -13°F (-25°C), so the first day of the new forecast period started in the opposite direction of the forecast.
Blick


elagache

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February (Re: NWS - CPC forecasts - Winter 2019)
« Reply #2 on: February 01, 2019, 11:05:49 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

February is here and here is the 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the middle of Winter.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for February:



This is very different with a large band of cold expected from the Pacific covering a large part of the northern tier states.  Southern parts would be warmer in a region surrounding Florida.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for February through April:



The 3 month forecast is rather more typical of the Climate Predication Center.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for February:



This is a claim that it will be wet February for most of the country.  We'll see if this pans out.

Here is the equivalent graph for February to April:



This is a much more hesitant forecast with most of the country with an equal chance of the 3 possible outcomes.

Here are drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for February:



This predication is definitely bad news for Oregon and Nevada.  Everyone else should be in better shape.

Here is the equivalent 3 month outlook:



This prediction reverses the February gains for large areas in the West.  Only parts of Idaho and Washington state see relief.  There is also a part of Florida that is expected to get some relief from drought.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

Blicj11

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Re: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Winter 2019
« Reply #3 on: February 01, 2019, 11:43:39 PM »
Thanks for sharing. Regarding drought: The Colorado River water use reduction agreement that failed to materialize last week because California did not submit a water reduction plan means that the Feds will be in charge of this important western water source instead of the 7 involved states. Bad move from the PRK (Peoples Republic of Kalifornia).
Blick


elagache

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Sad but so true! (Re: NWS - CPC forecasts - Winter 2019)
« Reply #4 on: February 02, 2019, 10:39:04 PM »
Dear Blick and WeatherCat victims of those who prefer to repeat the mistakes of history,

. . . . .
Bad move from the PRK (Peoples Republic of Kalifornia).

Alas, if that was the only bad move of the PRK, things wouldn't be to dire.  I remember my studies at the University of California, Berkeley.  Being on campus wasn't fun, but trying to cope with the city of Berkeley was a real horror.  I especially hated driving there - the roads were in such horrible condition.  Yet, the Berkeley city counsel was so preoccupied by world politics that the condition of the city that they were supposed to be governing was "unimportant" by comparison. 

The lunacy of Berkeley spread to San Francisco and Oakland.  Eventually it infected the state government and does the exact opposite of the political premise: there is governmental stalemate even if the Democratic party has complete control of the government.  There are plenty desperate problems that California needs to tackle, but California's politicians are "too busy" to be bothered by them.  Worse still, the voters don't seem to care even if they are the ones facing water rationing, horrible roads, and crippled electrical grid.

I used to be proud to have been born in California.  I'm definitely ashamed of it now.  No time like the present for the second coming!

Oh well, . . . . Edouard  :(


elagache

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March (Re: NWS - CPC forecasts - Winter 2019)
« Reply #5 on: March 01, 2019, 11:18:23 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

March is here and here is the 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the end of Winter into the start of Spring.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for March:



This once more puts a large part of the country back into below normal temperatures like December's forecast.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for March through May:



The 3 month forecast is a curious blend of their usual "gloom and doom" of higher temperatures with more uncertainty.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for March:



This is a claim that it will be wet March for most of the country.  We'll see if this pans out.

Here is the equivalent graph for March to May:



This is a somewhat more hesitant forecast with about half of the country with an equal chance of the 3 possible outcomes.  The southern half from Arizona to the Atlantic seaboard is supposed to get above normal rain with most of the Eastern Seaboard also benefiting

Here are drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for March:



This is the most optimistic drought forecast I've seen thus far!  Only areas of Texas see worsening drought.

Here is the equivalent 3 month outlook:



This too is amazingly optimistic.  Only a modest region of Oregon is expected to have persistent drought.

In this case the 64-dollar question is: just how much can we believe these forecasts and is it good news or bad in some yet unexpected way? . . . . 

Whatever the situation, all we can do is grin and bear it!

Edouard

Blicj11

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Re: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Winter 2019
« Reply #6 on: March 02, 2019, 08:07:51 AM »
I like the forecasts and hope I am equally happy with the actuals.
Blick