Author Topic: A year without either an El Niño or a La Niña?  (Read 149 times)

elagache

  • Global Moderator
  • Storm
  • *****
  • Posts: 4333
    • DW3835
    • KCAORIND10
    • Canebas Weather
  • Station Details: Davis Vantage Pro-2, MacBook Pro (Mid 2009)
A year without either an El Niño or a La Niña?
« on: July 15, 2017, 10:19:39 PM »
Dear WeatherCat Climate watchers,

Mid-summer is the first opportunity for use to get some idea of what we might expect in terms of El Niño or La Niña effects on our upcoming winter.  Well the prognosticators have weighed and the answer is - neutral!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

As the synopsis reads:

ENSO-neutral is favored (~50 to 55% chance) into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18

So does that mean we might have a "normal" winter this year?  I suppose we could always hope , but I sure wouldn't count on it!

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]

elagache

  • Global Moderator
  • Storm
  • *****
  • Posts: 4333
    • DW3835
    • KCAORIND10
    • Canebas Weather
  • Station Details: Davis Vantage Pro-2, MacBook Pro (Mid 2009)
La Niña watch? (Re: El Niño or La Niña? )
« Reply #1 on: September 16, 2017, 10:46:26 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Earlier this summer, the Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWSand the International Research Institute for Climate and Society folks had predicted a neutral year with neither an El Niño or La Niña event.  Well things have changed and we are now under a La Niña watch.  Here is the report:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

Here is a quote for the most relevant bit:

Quote
A majority of the models in the IRI/CPC suite of Niño-3.4 predictions favor ENSO-neutral through the Northern Hemisphere 2017-18 winter [Fig. 6]. However, the most recent predictions from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) and the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) indicate the formation of La Niña as soon as the Northern Hemisphere fall 2017 [Fig. 7]. Forecasters favor these predictions in part because of the recent cooling of surface and sub-surface temperature anomalies, and also because of the higher degree of forecast skill at this time of year. In summary, there is an increasing chance (~55-60%) of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

The past few La Niña events have caused atmospheric rivers to become more intense and has brought a lot of moisture to the Western United States.  For those who forgot, last year was a La Niña:

http://athena.trixology.com/index.php?topic=2221.msg22663#msg22663

So we may be in for another wet winter.

We'll just have to wait and see . . . . . .

Cheers, Edouard

Blicj11

  • Storm
  • *****
  • Posts: 2485
    • EW3808
    • KUTHEBER6
    • Timber Lakes Utah
  • Station Details: Davis Vantage Pro2 Plus | WeatherLinkIP™ Data Logger | iMac (late 2013), 3.5 GHz Intel Core i7, 24 GB RAM, macOS Sierra | Sharx SCNC2900 Webcam | Supportive Wife
Re: La Niña watch? (Re: El Niño or La Niña? )
« Reply #2 on: September 24, 2017, 06:41:00 AM »
So we may be in for another wet winter.

Sign me up.
Blick


elagache

  • Global Moderator
  • Storm
  • *****
  • Posts: 4333
    • DW3835
    • KCAORIND10
    • Canebas Weather
  • Station Details: Davis Vantage Pro-2, MacBook Pro (Mid 2009)
Beware of what you wish for . . . . (Re: La Niña watch?)
« Reply #3 on: September 24, 2017, 10:14:25 PM »
Dear Blick and WeatherCat Western US drought flood? watchers?!?!??

So we may be in for another wet winter.

Sign me up.

I certainly don't want the drought to start up again, but the rains definitely did a lot of damage around here.  The roads have suffered a lot because of the extremes of the soil.  In the middle of the rains the ground swelled a great deal and now with the very hot and dry summer, the ground has contracted to another extreme.  California rode out last winter mostly in stride, but our luck might not hold out if we get battered by a series of atmospheric rivers again.

I sure wish moderation would once more return to "climatological fashion."

Grin and bear it!  Edouard