Author Topic: First storm of the 2016-17 North CA rainy season  (Read 4461 times)

elagache

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Another day in . . . . paradise!?!??? (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
« Reply #30 on: January 06, 2017, 12:44:38 AM »
Dear WeatherCat admires of the mild Northern California Weather, . . . .

This is the National Weather Service Monterey office home page of this afternoon:



No kidding.  The current warnings are for widespread frost - tonight.  We have one more day to prepare for the storm (and I dearly need it!)  Then the rains start Friday night and the 7 day forecast has rain or showers all the way to the end of the week.  This appears to be uncertainty in the models, but the latest runs have a storm coming in Tuesday to Wednesday and yet a 3rd storm for the end of the week.  Given the forecast rainfall total, we might reach the total rainfall for a normal January in before the end of next week!

Oh well, . . . . Edouard

P.S. Yes that is the National Weather Service "YELLING."  Now that forecasts aren't always capitals, if you see them - it means trouble!

Blicj11

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Re: First storm of the 2016-17 North CA rainy season
« Reply #31 on: January 06, 2017, 01:32:13 AM »
We have received 37 inches of snow in the past four days. This is like the old days.
Blick


elagache

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The perfect(ly bad) storm (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
« Reply #32 on: January 09, 2017, 12:17:43 AM »
Dear WeatherCat extreme weather watchers,

Here is today's National Weather Service warnings from the Monterey (San Francisco) office:



Note the huge swath of light green "Flood Warning."  Instead of snowing in the Sierras, it is literally raining hard in the very place we need snow to accumulate.  What little snow was up there certainly has been diminished.

Worse still, it is raining so hard that we are getting flooding in places like Sacramento.  As a result, the dams which store our water are forced to release in order to cope with the water that is still coming.

We have picked up over 2" of rain from this storm and it is still coming.  On paper, I have almost 80% of the normal rainfall for January.  But all that water is racing back to the Pacific.  The only good thing about it is that we don't have to water.  Between the diminished snow pack and the reservoir releases we are actually going to end up with less water as a result of this storm!

Colder storms are expected later this week.  We might recover some of that snow.  But thus far, this storm has been very good at only one thing - doing harm!

So far the house hasn't suffered any significant damage, but I had to run around to make several rain-related fixes.

Even in drought-parched California, there is such a thing as too much rain!

Oh well, . . . . .Edouard

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Re: First storm of the 2016-17 North CA rainy season
« Reply #33 on: January 09, 2017, 02:56:59 PM »
Sorry to hear of this overage from the skies where you are. By the time these storms reach us, on the other side of the Sierras, they are behaving normally - rain in the valleys, snow in the mountains, and lots of much needed water.
Blick


HantaYo

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Re: The perfect(ly bad) storm (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
« Reply #34 on: January 10, 2017, 04:22:32 AM »
Dear WeatherCat extreme weather watchers,

Here is today's National Weather Service warnings from the Monterey (San Francisco) office:



Note the huge swath of light green "Flood Warning."  Instead of snowing in the Sierras, it is literally raining hard in the very place we need snow to accumulate.  What little snow was up there certainly has been diminished.

Worse still, it is raining so hard that we are getting flooding in places like Sacramento.  As a result, the dams which store our water are forced to release in order to cope with the water that is still coming.

We have picked up over 2" of rain from this storm and it is still coming.  On paper, I have almost 80% of the normal rainfall for January.  But all that water is racing back to the Pacific.  The only good thing about it is that we don't have to water.  Between the diminished snow pack and the reservoir releases we are actually going to end up with less water as a result of this storm!

Colder storms are expected later this week.  We might recover some of that snow.  But thus far, this storm has been very good at only one thing - doing harm!

So far the house hasn't suffered any significant damage, but I had to run around to make several rain-related fixes.

Even in drought-parched California, there is such a thing as too much rain!

Oh well, . . . . .Edouard

Raining here in Mountains of Colorado as well.  I am at 8,400' and have Never seen it rain like this in the winter time.

elagache

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And it keeps coming (Re: The perfect(ly bad) storm)
« Reply #35 on: January 11, 2017, 12:22:30 AM »
Dear HantaYo and WeatherCat victims of way too much of a "good thing."

Raining here in Mountains of Colorado as well.  I am at 8,400' and have Never seen it rain like this in the winter time.

Well, snow is rarely an issue in Orinda, but the rain just won't quit.  Here is a photo of my station with the storm total:



According to the Idecide website, Orinda should get only 5.13" of rain for the entire month of January in a normal season.  I now have more than that in just two back-to-back storms!  I'm within 0.40" of rain to set a new record rainfall for the month of January.

Alas, too much water has to go somewhere.  I'm getting flooding on the semi-developed basement I use as a workshop.  At the moment I'm having to vacuum up the water every 1/2 hour or so.  Definitely anything but fun.

All this and this may still make our water supply actually worse.  I can't win for losing . . . . . . .

Edouard

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Re: First storm of the 2016-17 North CA rainy season
« Reply #36 on: January 11, 2017, 04:06:29 AM »
Edouard,

A lot of rain in a few days [cloudsun]  Alas, for the West I fear the "New" normal weather will either be too much or not enough.  What was shaping up to be a dry winter has completely reversed.  Bracing for storm 3 or 4 (have lost count) with another potential storm Friday-Saturday which will be a big one depending upon were the closed low goes.

I am up to 2.69" of precipitation with 31.2" of snow.  .77" of that was rain.  Snow is like concrete with the rain.

elagache

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Indeed very ominous . . . (Re: The perfect(ly bad) storm)
« Reply #37 on: January 11, 2017, 11:42:38 PM »
Dear HantaYo and WeatherCat climate observers,

A lot of rain in a few days [cloudsun]  Alas, for the West I fear the "New" normal weather will either be too much or not enough. 

Sadly I fear that you are correct and my worries is that this proof that climate change is already out of control.  Last year there was finally a study based on the movements of the cloud bands that I feel is convincing that greenhouse gas based climate change has already started.  It is horribly disappointing that good research like that is so hard to come by.

I haven't had a chance to check, but my recollection is that the last La Nina event also produced heavy precipitation like we are seeing right now.  This can be explained by a more energetic atmosphere that brings storms even over the colder water.  "Normal years" are becoming increasingly dry.  The cause is an usually strong blocking ridge of high pressure during the wintertime.  This too is consistent with a more energetic atmosphere.  The changes in climate are perfectly reasonable with a more energetic (warmer) atmosphere.

If true than the west is at the brink of a water supply crisis the likes of which nobody even imagined.  Our current water storage strategy is out of sync with the way water is now delivered to the region.  As a result, there is plenty of water to be stored but we don't have the technology to catch it.   While the ways we have traditionally counted for our water supply seem poised to really fail us.

Nobody predicted this sort of scenario.  That is exactly what we needed to the climate scientists to do for us.  Their unwillingness to admit honestly what they could and could not tell us about the changing climate might well bring about the very disasters they insisted they were trying to help us prevent.

Oh well,. . . . . Edouard

elagache

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First of 3 storms . . . (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
« Reply #38 on: January 18, 2017, 10:54:19 PM »
Dear WeatherCat West Coast victims of feast or famine,

After a break of a few days, we are experiencing the first of three storms.  A second storm is expected on Friday and the final storm on Sunday.  All have some sort of an atmospheric river tap which means abundant rainfall.  However the first two are expected to move through more quickly and don't have as rich a source of moisture.  Nonetheless, all three are energetic storms with strong winds and are expected put us through a period of heavy rains.  As the three storms go through, the temperatures are expected to fall.  That should make for a lot of snow and reduce the risk of flooding on the rivers fed by the Sierra foothills.

Alas, the ground is saturated and the trees have been already stressed from the drought and earlier storms.  We shall see, but there is likely to be more damage around the San Francisco Bay Area.

After these 3 storms, current Climate Prediction Center forecasts are for a complete turnaround in the situation with below normal precipitation perhaps as long as into February 10th.

Sadly for the West, extremes seem to be norm these days . . . . .

Oh well, . . .  Edouard

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Re: First storm of the 2016-17 North CA rainy season
« Reply #39 on: January 19, 2017, 04:45:32 AM »
Dear WeatherCat West Coast victims of feast or famine,

After a break of a few days, we are experiencing the first of three storms.  A second storm is expected on Friday and the final storm on Sunday.  All have some sort of an atmospheric river tap which means abundant rainfall.  However the first two are expected to move through more quickly and don't have as rich a source of moisture.  Nonetheless, all three are energetic storms with strong winds and are expected put us through a period of heavy rains.  As the three storms go through, the temperatures are expected to fall.  That should make for a lot of snow and reduce the risk of flooding on the rivers fed by the Sierra foothills.

Alas, the ground is saturated and the trees have been already stressed from the drought and earlier storms.  We shall see, but there is likely to be more damage around the San Francisco Bay Area.

After these 3 storms, current Climate Prediction Center forecasts are for a complete turnaround in the situation with below normal precipitation perhaps as long as into February 10th.

Sadly for the West, extremes seem to be norm these days . . . . .

Oh well, . . .  Edouard

3 Storms in sight of Colorado as well, must be your 3 storms and the river of water.  As you, the third storm is forecast to be the most robust.  Looks like the first might be more southern with winter storm watch for the southwest Colorado Mtns starting tomorrow.   Hopefully the snow line in California remains high.  Lucky here in Colorado so far with a snow line around my elevation, 8,400' for several storms with just rain one day.  It was so sunny and nice on Tuesday I had to force myself to go to work.

elagache

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A tree surcumbs to the wet (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
« Reply #40 on: January 21, 2017, 12:08:14 AM »
Dear WeatherCat home caregivers in extreme weather,

Storm #2 of 3 came through early this morning.  It dumped an impressive amount of rain on us by Northern California standards.  Here is the "blow-by-blow" as recorded by my WC Storm Monitor AppleScript:



We are now over double the normal rainfall for January.  Not surprisingly trees are starting to fall over.  There was one next to the local middle school a while back.  Last week a very large tree fell into a creek next to the local grade school.  Today they sent a crew to remove it.  It was serious business as the crane they used to lift sections of the tree out makes clear:



Here is the rig that was used to chip the tree parts into small pieces:



Finally, here is the chipper in action.  Note the mechanical claw needed to lift the heavy sections of tree trunk:



This is industrial sized tree removal.  However, this is relatively small problem compared to the sinkhole that opened on a road in the Northern part of Orinda:

http://www.eastbaytimes.com/2017/01/18/orinda-declares-local-state-of-emergency-following-sinkhole/

This is feeder road to many neighborhoods and carries a lot of traffic, so is already a serious inconvenience for many citizens of Orinda.  However, we live in the South, so we aren't effected.

Still, there is one more storm expected and it is expected to be the strongest and wettest.

All I can try do to is take the blows as the come!

Oh well, . . . . Edouard

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Last storm will be duesy (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
« Reply #41 on: January 21, 2017, 10:31:02 PM »
Dear WeatherCat extreme weather watchers,

We have probably something like 6 hours before the final storm of the triplet makes landfall.  As you can see on this 8 km satellite photo is had a very extensive moisture tap:



This means, unlike the previous two storms that moved through quickly, we are in for a protected period of heavy rains.  Here are the warnings from the National Weather Service, Monterey office:



I don't recall ever seeing any stronger than a gale warning out to sea before - so this storm has plenty of strong winds as well.  Looks like Northern California is in for a real duesy of a storm.  I've battened down the hatches as best as I could, but I'm expecting more flooding with this sort of a rain event.

All I can do is grin and bare it!

Oh well, . . . . . Edouard

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Re: First storm of the 2016-17 North CA rainy season
« Reply #42 on: January 22, 2017, 08:07:50 AM »
These storms produce snow further east; we had 5 inches today with more to come. The snow is heavy and wet and we'll take all we can get for now.
Blick


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Sierras getting the same. (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
« Reply #43 on: January 22, 2017, 11:27:14 PM »
Dear Blick and WeatherCat Western US drought watchers,

These storms produce snow further east; we had 5 inches today with more to come. The snow is heavy and wet and we'll take all we can get for now.

I just checked and there is a lot of snow falling on the Sierras so hopefully we are also banking some water for the Summer.  This last storm hasn't been as mean as advertised but it has given us almost 1" of rain and there is more still coming.  I just cleared 12" of rain for January.  That's more than 50% more than the previous record January of 7.79" set just last year.

According to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center drought monitor:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/season_drought.png

Northern California is officially out of drought (at least until the end of April.)

This is really amazing for a La Niña year.

Go figure . . . . .

Edouard

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Prepping for the next round of wet. (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
« Reply #44 on: February 01, 2017, 10:54:40 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

The forecast has once more lead to concerns of excessive rainfall. 

This afternoon's forecast discussion starts with this synopsis:

Quote
SYNOPSIS...Unsettled weather conditions return to the region late tonight into Thursday as an upper level system approaches from the west. Widespread rainfall will develop, especially along the coastal ranges, along with an increase in southerly winds. Showers will then continue through Friday before potentially a brief break in precipitation during the day Saturday. Another round of widespread rainfall is possible from late Sunday into Monday as another system approaches the region.

The area is already hurting from all the previous storm damage.  This morning I noticed another tree had fallen into the same creek where the huge tree was removed by crane as documented in this posting:

http://athena.trixology.com/index.php?topic=2301.msg23230#msg23230

This is is much smaller but still did some damage:



Here is a view of the end of the trunk where it fractured:



Finally here are some more fallen branches along the side of a hill that serves as a power company right-of way:



I did some storm preparation and I have some more to do.  It does appear like "more of the same" is to be expected at least through the weekend.

Oh well, . . . . Edouard