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Weather => General Weather Discussion => Topic started by: elagache on July 01, 2019, 10:54:53 PM

Title: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Summer 2019
Post by: elagache on July 01, 2019, 10:54:53 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Summer is a few days old and here is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/) for the start to summer.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for July:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Summer%202019/Temperature_outlook_Jul-2019.gif)

It is very much the same curious pattern curious pattern as the June forecast.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for July through September:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Summer%202019/Temperature_outlook_Jul-Sep-2019.gif)

This also looks similar to last month.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for July:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Summer%202019/Precipitation_outlook_Jul-2019.gif)

The precipitation forecast has the same similarity as the temperature forecast.  However, significant parts of the are expected to receive below normal rain for July.

Here is the equivalent graph for July to September:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Summer%202019/Precipitation_outlook_Jul-Sep-2019.gif)

Rainfall is favored for the center of the country.

On to drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for July:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Summer%202019/Drought_outlook_Jul-2019.png)

Compared to past years, there isn't much drought this summer.  The 3 month outlook further reflects this:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Summer%202019/Drought_outlook_Jul-Sep-2019.png)

Here are the Wildfire predictions.  These come from the NICC - National Interagency Coordination Center (https://www.nifc.gov/).  These come only monthly.  Here is the updated July:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Summer%202019/Wildfire_outlook_Jul-2019.png)

This forecast follows the rainfall predictions with some curious additions.    Here is the August outlook.

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Summer%202019/Wildfire_outlook_Aug-2019.png)

Definitely looks worrisome for the West.  Here is September:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Summer%202019/Wildfire_outlook_Sep-2019.png)

September is expected to be nasty in California and the Pacific Northwest.  Once more other parts of the country are expecting some reduction in fire risk.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard
Title: Re: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Summer 2019
Post by: Blicj11 on July 01, 2019, 11:52:55 PM
Fire outlook is better than it has been for years, but still hot and dry on the west coast.
Title: Ignorance is . . . . . . ??? (Re: NWS - CPC forecasts - Summer 2019)
Post by: elagache on July 02, 2019, 10:59:13 PM
Dear Blick and WeatherCatters concerned about wildfires,

Fire outlook is better than it has been for years, but still hot and dry on the west coast.

That may be so, but I didn't know about these outlooks until the end of last year. Since I never saw those disconcerting outlooks in the past, I didn't get worried about it.  I suppose ignorance is . . . . . . ignorance! . . . .(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/D'oh.gif)

Oh well, . . . . . Edouard  ???
Title: Re: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Summer 2019
Post by: Blicj11 on July 08, 2019, 04:35:29 PM
Edouard, I've been following these drought forecasts for the past several years and these are the best I've seen.
Title: August forecasts (Re: NWS - CPC forecasts - Summer 2019)
Post by: elagache on August 01, 2019, 10:35:55 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

We are the first of August and here is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/) for the start to summer.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for August:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Summer%202019/Temperature_outlook_Aug-2019.gif)

It is very much the same curious pattern curious pattern as the July forecast.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for August through October:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Summer%202019/Temperature_outlook_Aug-Oct-2019.gif)

This is more like the traditional "hot everywhere" prediction of past years.  The whole country is either hotter than normal or an equal chance of any of the 3 outcomes.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for August:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Summer%202019/Precipitation_outlook_Aug-2019.gif)

The precipitation forecast has the same similarity as the temperature forecast for last month.

Here is the equivalent graph for August to October:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Summer%202019/Precipitation_outlook_Aug-Oct-2019.gif)

Curiously besides a swatch in the Northern center of the country, this forecast is for a equal chance of any of the 3 possible outcomes once more.

On to drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for August:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Summer%202019/Drought_outlook_Aug-2019.png)

Oddly, drought is expected to develop in a number of regions.  Here is the 3 month:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Summer%202019/Drought_outlook_Aug-Oct-2019.png)

This isn't so pessimistic.  Drought is expected to continue in Texas and the extreme Pacific Northwest.

Here are the Wildfire predictions.  These come from the NICC - National Interagency Coordination Center (https://www.nifc.gov/).  These come only monthly.  Here is the updated August:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Summer%202019/Wildfire_outlook_Aug-2-2019.png)

Definitely not looking good for the West.  Even Alaska and Hawaii are under elevated wildfire threats.    Here is the September outlook:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Summer%202019/Wildfire_outlook_Sep-2-2019.png)

The west continues to face elevated threats with the exception of Alaska were the temperatures are presumably dropping.   Here is October:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Summer%202019/Wildfire_outlook_Oct-2019.png)

October continues the trend of September.  Florida is expecting some benefits from cyclonic rains presumably.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard