Trixology

Weather => Observations => Topic started by: elagache on September 17, 2015, 11:18:49 PM

Title: Highlights from Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season
Post by: elagache on September 17, 2015, 11:18:49 PM
Dear WeatherCat drought watchers,

the Orinda Classic Car show wasn't enough by itself to make it rain, but 4 days later we finally got the first rainfall of the 2015-16 season:

(http://www.canebas.org/misc/Voila_images/First%20rains%202015-2016.jpg)

There were two more "bucket tips" overnight bringing the rainfall total to 0.07" (1.8mm).  Definitely nothing more than a drop in the bucket and with a heatwave expected for the weekend little help for the vegetation.  Still it is very early to receive any measurable precipitation and the forecast models are continuing to show variable weather.  We'll just have to see if this is really the start of a wetter pattern or not.

Edouard 
Title: First real storm of the year!! (Re: Northern CA's 2015-16 rainy season)
Post by: elagache on November 02, 2015, 09:45:05 PM
Dear WeatherCat drought watchers,

Well, October was essentially a complete bust, but November is off to a nice start in northern California.  The promised storm of last night was indeed just the right size, not too much water that could cause damage, but enough to get the ground thoroughly wet and wash down the dust and debris.  Here is the storm as recorded by my WC Storm Monitor AppleScript (I've relocated the growl notifications to read normally one column at a time from left to right.)

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Storm_2015-11-02.png)

The rainfall rates were sufficient to penetrate even very dense trees, so everything truly got wet.  The total rainfall is 0.65" (16.5mm) to this moment.  There was even enough runoff to start refilling the creeks:

(https://canebas.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Autumn-2015/i-FDKQ9c8/0/L/Water%20in%20Moraga%20Creek%20after%205%20months%20-L.jpg) (https://canebas.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Autumn-2015/i-FDKQ9c8/A)

This creek has been completely dry since late June, so the wildlife will be very happy to have that water source back.

Now the only problem is where is the next storm.  Thus far nothing expected through the 7 day forecast, but the pattern does seem more winter-like all of a sudden.  We'll see.

Cheers, Edouard
Title: Re: Highlights from Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season
Post by: Bull Winkus on November 02, 2015, 10:28:19 PM
Congratulations, Edouard! This could be the start of something good…

 [cheers1]
Title: Re: Highlights from Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season
Post by: HantaYo on November 03, 2015, 11:06:25 AM
Great rain, hopefully most of it soaked in [cheer]  Here is to more nice, ground soaking rains  [cheers1]

Ground is still wet from the much needed rain we received almost 2 weeks ago.  Snow in the forecast here with potential heavy snow in the mountains- winter storm watch in effect for the western slope of Colorado.  New snow tires on the Subaru, (it is amazing how much tread is on new tires) so El Nino -

Hit me with your best shot
Why don't you hit me with your best shot
Hit me with your best shot
Fire away [bounce] [bounce] [bounce]


Title: Waiting for the next one. (Re: Northern CA's 2015-16 rainy season)
Post by: elagache on November 03, 2015, 11:24:45 PM
Dear Herb, Jeff, and WeatherCat drought watchers,

Thanks, it was definitely most welcome.  I've done the mulch spreading routine so the water will take a while to evaporate around the house.  Also with the days definitely getting shorter, the sunlight isn't reaching large areas of the year thanks to all the shady trees.  So there is a lot of relief just from this one storm.

However, as one might expect, I'm getting anxious for the next storm.  Alas, all they are forecasting is a storm missing us to the North.  At least the pattern it looking more winter-like.

Cheers, Edouard

P.S. At least I put today's cool but clear conditions to good use.  I defrosted our 40+ year old freezer!

P.P.S. and yes, I watered the plants with melted ice! . . .  [rolleyes2]
Title: Re: Highlights from Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season
Post by: HantaYo on November 05, 2015, 02:17:48 PM
Quote
P.P.S. and yes, I watered the plants with melted ice! . . .

Always recycling the water around here as well.  I just feel guilty letting clean water go down the drain.
Title: El Niño Spigot finally opening? (Re: California's 2015-16 rainy season )
Post by: elagache on January 04, 2016, 11:08:20 PM
Dear WeatherCat drought watchers,

The San Francisco bay area is poised to have a number of "juicy" storms come through.  Yesterday's National Weather Service discussion went like this:

Quote
Storms thus far this winter have been fairly typical...cold and more from the Northwest. For the upcoming week, the Bay area may finally start seeing a more El Niño type storm track from the west- southwest with a good sub-tropical jet.

The first storm is due tomorrow with additional storms expected later in the week.  Could this be the start of the long promised El Niño event?

Stay tuned! (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/tune_in_TV_emoticon.gif)

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: Re: Highlights from Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season
Post by: HantaYo on January 05, 2016, 01:53:43 AM
Edouard,

Are your ready for the Pineapple Express?  You did take out flood insurance didn't you?

Looks like the the jet is on the move and you are ground zero- watch out for incoming "bombs".  Just leave a few drops for Colorado.  It will be interesting watching if the pattern develops and holds through the spring.  Perhaps a winter/spring like 1982/1983?  I still remember the Christmas Blizzard of 1982.  Roads were closed for a week.
Title: Bumper to bumper - storms! (Re: Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season )
Post by: elagache on January 05, 2016, 11:42:31 PM
Dear Jeff and WeatherCat drought watchers, . . . .

Are your ready for the Pineapple Express?  You did take out flood insurance didn't you?

Looks like the the jet is on the move and you are ground zero- watch out for incoming "bombs".  Just leave a few drops for Colorado.  It will be interesting watching if the pattern develops and holds through the spring.  Perhaps a winter/spring like 1982/1983?  I still remember the Christmas Blizzard of 1982.  Roads were closed for a week.

The forecast is for at least 2 weeks of sustained storms and above average rainfall through the rest of the month.  The Climate Predication Center forecasts expect above average rainfall for as long as they are willing to forecast.  So on the plus side it should make a huge dent in the drought.  On the minus side, it is likely to do a lot of damage.  There was one fallen tree not to far from here - before the long series of storms had arrived.  We are definitely battening down the hatches!

Cheers, Edouard
Title: Tightrope between to little and too much rain! (Re: CA 2015-16 rainy season)
Post by: elagache on January 13, 2016, 10:47:13 PM
Dear WeatherCat extreme weather watchers,

The rainfall at Canebas Weather station is barely keeping up with normal January.  At this moment we are 0.27" (6.9mm) of rain ahead of where we should be for January 13th (according to my synthetic channel calculation.)  That's because we got an energetic and wet storm in this morning's predawn hours.  We picked up 0.47" (11.9mm) of rain with a peak rate of 3.29"/hour (83.6mm/hour.)  It was also very windy with a peak gust of: 17 mph (27.4 km/h).  All this was too much for a local pine tree:

(https://canebas.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Winter-2016/i-84qhmvs/0/XL/Tall%20pine%20tree%20fallen%20on%20hill%20-XL.jpg) (https://canebas.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Winter-2016/i-84qhmvs/A)

As you can see this was a large and tall tree!  Thankfully it fell only to an unused hill and damaged nothing more than a fence panel, but if a tree this size would have struck a person, he/she would not have survived and any man-made objects in its way would be destroyed or at least badly damaged.

The rain is expected to pick up next week with several storms expected over the next 7-9 days.  We really need the rain, but there is no avoiding the storm damage from trees weakened by the drought.  So far, it really isn't looking like the El Niño conditions have been forecasted to bring a prolonged period of very heavy rains.  Such rains might be sufficient to break the drought, but there is no doubt, only at the cost of a lot more storm-related damage.

Definitely looking like a wild ride for California this winter!

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: Re: Highlights from Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season
Post by: xairbusdriver on January 14, 2016, 12:12:18 AM
Looks like extremely dry ground where the roots had been. If that had been a local tree, you would have seen a huge root ball composed mostly of the clay we call "soil" here. Looks like there is really nothing for the roots to hold on to or they were already dead. It is rare to have a moth without gust exceeding 20mph here and we don't usually have trees downed until al least 30mph. Dead limbs/trees can fall at almost any time, but not live ones.

Is that by any chance a 'filled' area? Perhaps it's just a very short fence or one with very wide boards. I'm just wondering if the fence is also partly a 'terrace' wall.

Glad no one was injured and the damage was minimal! I still think you should move farther away from the left edge of the continent! :o
Title: That's the drought for you . . (Re: CA 2015-16 rainy season )
Post by: elagache on January 15, 2016, 12:25:16 AM
Dear X-Air and WeatherCat arborists . . .

Looks like extremely dry ground where the roots had been.

. . .

Is that by any chance a 'filled' area?

Actually that soil has been undisturbed since at least when we moved to this house in 1980 and is probably much older.

The soil is that dry because of the drought and because the trees have been sheltering the ground from the rains we've gotten so far.

I checked the area this afternoon and another tree looks close falling over.  We'll see!

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: El Nino comes through! (Re:Northern CA 2015-16 rainy season)
Post by: elagache on January 20, 2016, 12:30:29 AM
Dear WeatherCat drought watchers,

So far it has been a dry to normal rainy season for California.  However, December and January has finally started bring us substantially above normal rainfall.  My Vantage Pro-2 console tells the tale on the latest storm:

(https://canebas.smugmug.com/Nature/Weather/Storm-scenes-2016-01-19/i-v4HNJHK/0/XL/Weather%20station%20console%20during%20storm%20of%20Jan%2015%2C%202016-XL.jpg)

Since I took that photo we have picked up some additional rain and find ourselves at 3.81" (96.8mm) for the storm.  There might be another bucket tip or two before it is completely over.  Today brought us a sustained period of heavy rain:

(http://www.canebas.org/misc/Voila_images/Intense%20rain%20event%202016-01-19.jpg)

At least in California, picking up almost an inch of rain in 5 hours is enough to bring about a risk of flooding especially when the ground is already saturated.

I went around the area this afternoon to take a look at the effect.  I didn't find any damage but some areas clearly were flooded during the peak rains.  The effect of the running water was interesting.  I took this photo of water jumping over a concrete obstruction in the street gutter:

(https://canebas.smugmug.com/Nature/Weather/Storm-scenes-2016-01-19/i-956QDg8/0/XL/Water%20bouncing%20on%20concrete%20obstacle%20-XL.jpg) (https://canebas.smugmug.com/Nature/Weather/Storm-scenes-2016-01-19/i-956QDg8/A)

Here is a small creek that was rushing into the storm drain system:

(https://canebas.smugmug.com/Nature/Weather/Storm-scenes-2016-01-19/i-FhCDV7w/0/XL/Creek%20flowing%20into%20storm%20drain%20-XL.jpg) (https://canebas.smugmug.com/Nature/Weather/Storm-scenes-2016-01-19/i-FhCDV7w/A)

I didn't see any signs of landslides but the ground is plenty saturated.  I saw this "natural drain:"

(https://canebas.smugmug.com/Nature/Weather/Storm-scenes-2016-01-19/i-4tTTKQH/0/XL/Water%20flowing%20out%20of%20gopher%20or%20other%20natural%20hole%20-XL.jpg) (https://canebas.smugmug.com/Nature/Weather/Storm-scenes-2016-01-19/i-4tTTKQH/A)

I"m guessing a gopher or other natural hole became a impromptu drain for that hill.

Here is one last photo of that fallen tree that I posted earlier.  It has finally gotten cut into pieces:

(https://canebas.smugmug.com/Nature/Weather/Storm-scenes-2016-01-19/i-J2srJHN/0/XL/Fallen%20tree%20cut%20into%20sections%20-XL.jpg) (https://canebas.smugmug.com/Nature/Weather/Storm-scenes-2016-01-19/i-J2srJHN/A)

That gives you a good idea of the size of that tree!  No other trees have fallen but the same property had another tree in the process of being taken down.  They weren't taking any more chances!

We are already 20% over the rainfall for January with more rain expected at the end of this week and probably more rain before the end of the month.  We are also at 98% of normal rainfall for the year (July-January.)  So we are guaranteed to finally pull ahead of normal rainfall for period for the first time this rainy season.

The drought is a long way from over, but December and January have both been wet.  If February and March follow suit, it might be enough to end water restriction.  Here's to hoping! (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/rain_happy.gif)

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: Re: Highlights from Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season
Post by: Blicj11 on January 20, 2016, 12:47:26 AM
Nice photos. Thanks for the update. Glad to see there rain there. It turned into snow here, and we need it too.
Title: Re: Highlights from Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season
Post by: xairbusdriver on January 20, 2016, 01:05:41 AM
Amazing how that tree came apart! It must have been very dry and full of those 'fault lines' you Californians are famous for!
Title: Re: Highlights from Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season
Post by: Bull Winkus on January 20, 2016, 10:16:25 PM
It's a Minecraft tree. They come apart in blocks.  [lol]

 [cheers1]
Title: Re: Highlights from Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season
Post by: xairbusdriver on January 20, 2016, 10:31:17 PM
Quote
It's a Minecraft tree. They come apart in blocks
Probably 64 bit 'words'?

Another question for enquiring minds; is your Console, which you show it that image (Post # 12), outside your house?

Or is it really only one degree 'warmer' inside (57°) than out (56°)?!  [cold1] If those are actually inside your home, I congratulate you for going well above and beyond in your attempt to lower your use of oil/gas/electricity and for supporting the clothing industry! ;)
Title: The demon high pressure ridge returns (Re: Northern CA 2015-16 rainy season)
Post by: elagache on February 05, 2016, 11:14:48 PM
Dear WeatherCat western United States drought waters,

There is an extremely ominous development here in California - the rain has stopped.  Worse it has stopped in exactly the same way it has did in 2015 and 2013.  A strong ridge of high pressure has pushed the storm track way to the north - negating any benefit that El Niño might provide.  The month is only 5 days old, but the extended forecasts are absolutely horrible.  No rain is expected through the middle of the month and the 8-14 day outlook by the climate prediction center is below normal - that leads to February 19th.  February is the second wettest month for my station at: 4.75" almost 20% of our total rainfall.  If we don't at least keep up with our normal pace of rainfall, surely we fall back into the misery of drought.

This morning the Monterey office of the National Weather Service made the worries official.  The following paragraph was part of the morning discussion:

Quote
Ridge stays in place through most of next week suggesting dry    conditions and near normal temps. Latest long range trends are now trending dry through next weekend with some concern as the GFS runs out through 15 days are looking drier and drier with a ridge along the West Coast. From a drought perspective we don't want to lose February for rain and mountain snow. CFS climate model shows March as above normal in relation to the ongoing El Niño.

I fear that everyone in the western United States should view this situation with alarm and worry.  What had looked so promising to ease our suffering may yet let us down.  . . . . (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/desert-smiley.gif)

Edouard
Title: Re: Highlights from Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season
Post by: Blicj11 on February 06, 2016, 12:00:05 AM
Hate to see this. We've have a good snow pack replenishment so far, but our 10-day forecast here, after 3 inches of snow early this morning, calls for clear, sunny skies. Not what we need!
Title: Hoping for a change (Re: Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season )
Post by: elagache on February 06, 2016, 10:05:49 PM
Dear Blick and WeatherCat western US drought sufferers,

Hate to see this. We've have a good snow pack replenishment so far, but our 10-day forecast here, after 3 inches of snow early this morning, calls for clear, sunny skies. Not what we need!

Sadly, this high pressure ridge is continuing to behave as it has in past years and if it does really become stagnant everyone in the west will suffer.  The GFS model is trying to break down the ridge starting next weekend but the European and Canadian models don't produce this solution.  All we can do is wait and hope.

Edouard
Title: Re: First real storm of the year!! (Re: Northern CA's 2015-16 rainy season)
Post by: TechnoMonkey on February 07, 2016, 01:24:30 AM
Dear WeatherCat drought watchers,

Well, October was essentially a complete bust, but November is off to a nice start in northern California.  The promised storm of last night was indeed just the right size, not too much water that could cause damage, but enough to get the ground thoroughly wet and wash down the dust and debris.  Here is the storm as recorded by my WC Storm Monitor AppleScript (I've relocated the growl notifications to read normally one column at a time from left to right.)

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Storm_2015-11-02.png)

The rainfall rates were sufficient to penetrate even very dense trees, so everything truly got wet.  The total rainfall is 0.65" (16.5mm) to this moment.  There was even enough runoff to start refilling the creeks:

(https://canebas.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Autumn-2015/i-FDKQ9c8/0/L/Water%20in%20Moraga%20Creek%20after%205%20months%20-L.jpg) (https://canebas.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Autumn-2015/i-FDKQ9c8/A)

This creek has been completely dry since late June, so the wildlife will be very happy to have that water source back.

Now the only problem is where is the next storm.  Thus far nothing expected through the 7 day forecast, but the pattern does seem more winter-like all of a sudden.  We'll see.

Cheers, Edouard

I noticed that you have 11.0 mph winds considered as high winds. ???  That is a gentle breeze.  Here on the Gulf coast, we do not consider winds high until they reach 20-25 mph with gusts to 35-40 mph.
Title: Anenometer not well placed (Re: Northern CA's 2015-16 rainy season)
Post by: elagache on February 07, 2016, 11:25:51 PM
Dear TechnoMonkey and WeatherCat less than ideal station owners,

I noticed that you have 11.0 mph winds considered as high winds. ???  That is a gentle breeze.  Here on the Gulf coast, we do not consider winds high until they reach 20-25 mph with gusts to 35-40 mph.

You would be correct if I could get good wind data, but my location makes that impossible.  My station isn't like this exactly but here is the write-up on Canebas weather station 1.0.

http://athena.trixology.com/index.php?topic=969.msg8478#msg8478 (http://athena.trixology.com/index.php?topic=969.msg8478#msg8478)

I'm in the shadow of a steep hill with tall trees at the summit.  So what wind does reach us is minimal.  I set the values for WC Storm Monitor based on what the national weather service calls a wind event.  It's purpose isn't to provide data for meteorologists (since it can't,) instead it is to give me some idea of the potential for property damage.  Since strong winds are rare, that criteria is sufficient to get to run around and make sure we don't have something that could blow around.  Normally that simply isn't an issue.

Cheers, Edouard
Title: February heat wave . . (Re: Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season )
Post by: elagache on February 09, 2016, 12:09:58 AM
Dear WeatherCat drought watchers, . . . . (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/desert-smiley.gif)

Definitely not getting the sort of weather I want for February.  Today's high was 70.8˚.  I'm sure some record highs fell.  We have a strong off-shore flow and gusty wind.  It is the equivalent of a Santa Ana condition for Northern California and the effect is to dry out the soil very rapidly.  The moisture that was so hard won is disappearing from the upper parts of the soil and things will continue to dry in this heat.

Temperatures are supposed to moderate for the second half of the week, but no significant change in the weather pattern is so far being suggested by the forecast models.

Oh well, . . . . . Edouard (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/pout.gif)
Title: Re: February heat wave . . (Re: Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season )
Post by: HantaYo on February 10, 2016, 02:24:29 PM
Dear WeatherCat drought watchers, . . . . (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/desert-smiley.gif)

Definitely not getting the sort of weather I want for February.  Today's high was 70.8˚.  I'm sure some record highs fell.  We have a strong off-shore flow and gusty wind.  It is the equivalent of a Santa Ana condition for Northern California and the effect is to dry out the soil very rapidly.  The moisture that was so hard won is disappearing from the upper parts of the soil and things will continue to dry in this heat.

Temperatures are supposed to moderate for the second half of the week, but no significant change in the weather pattern is so far being suggested by the forecast models.

Oh well, . . . . . Edouard (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/pout.gif)

Heat is here in Colorado too.  My snow pack has gone from 18" last week to 6" this morning.  We hit a high of 54°F yesterday.  5 day forecast is more of the same.  This is more like middle of March weather   [sweat2]
Title: Rain back in forecast (Re: Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season )
Post by: elagache on February 11, 2016, 12:19:38 AM
Dear HantaYo and WeatherCat drought watchers,

Heat is here in Colorado too.  My snow pack has gone from 18" last week to 6" this morning.  We hit a high of 54°F yesterday.  5 day forecast is more of the same.  This is more like middle of March weather   [sweat2]

Sorry to hear that.  The forecast is looking a bit better with a chance of rain starting a week from today.  Also the outlooks from the Climate Predication Center aren't so gloomy for northern California.  I sure wish these so called climate experts would come to understand this winter ridging phenomenon.  If it is a permanent feature of winter weather than what we call drought would become the new normal.  It is really important to understand why this is happening.

Oh well, . . . Edouard
Title: Re: Highlights from Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season
Post by: Blicj11 on February 11, 2016, 12:51:31 AM
Same in Utah. We lost a foot of snowpack over the past couple of days and made it to 50° F today.
Title: Re: Highlights from Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season
Post by: HantaYo on February 12, 2016, 01:31:19 PM
Quote
The forecast is looking a bit better with a chance of rain starting a week from today.

Similar here with snow possibility next Thursday.  Looks like highs in the upper 40s and low 50s until then.  My local weather model called AVIAN has flown the coop to colder environs- until the Rosy Finches return it will be hot and dry.

Quote
I sure wish these so called climate experts would come to understand this winter ridging phenomenon.  If it is a permanent feature of winter weather than what we call drought would become the new normal.  It is really important to understand why this is happening.

I wonder if this phenomenon is why the climate models show the southwest drying out?  The prediction is El Nino like conditions to become permanently  established and it just did not make sense, considering past El Nino events, that the southwest would dry out.

Quote
Same in Utah. We lost a foot of snowpack over the past couple of days and made it to 50° F today.
Well for my CoCoRAHs snow depth report I'll have to call a trace of snow depth real soon.  Bare ground is popping up all over the place.  See what this morning looks like.
Title: CPC forecast pessmistic for Feb. (Re: Northern CA's 2015-16 rainy season )
Post by: elagache on February 12, 2016, 10:20:09 PM
Dear HantaYo, Blick, and Western US drought watchers,

Quote
The forecast is looking a bit better with a chance of rain starting a week from today.

Similar here with snow possibility next Thursday.  Looks like highs in the upper 40s and low 50s until then.  My local weather model called AVIAN has flown the coop to colder environs- until the Rosy Finches return it will be hot and dry.

Alas, if the NWS Climate Prediction Center is correct, the rain of next week is all we shall get for the remainder of the month of February.  If so, that would put us around 20% behind normal rainfall once more.

I wonder if this phenomenon is why the climate models show the southwest drying out?  The prediction is El Nino like conditions to become permanently  established and it just did not make sense, considering past El Nino events, that the southwest would dry out.

This recurrent winter ridge of high pressure will most certainly dry out the west and especially the southwest.  However, I've never seen an explanation of - why - this ridge is forming now in winter.  It is certainly something that is new and remarkably stable.  There has been this sort of ridging during the winter months for I believe 4 years in a row.  It doesn't completely shut down the storm systems, but it does make storms much less frequent and as a result, the only way to catch up is with periods of extremely wet storms.  That is what happened in 2014.  At the moment this maybe what will have to happen this year in order to avoid a serious water shortfall.

Oh well, . . . . . Edouard
Title: Re: Highlights from Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season
Post by: Blicj11 on February 12, 2016, 11:42:54 PM
We have an inch of snow projected for this Sunday and up to 3 inches predicted for Thursday. In the meantime, our high mountain valleys have incredibly bad inversions, which will only be cleared out by the snowstorms so I am hoping they happen as forecast. I heard on the radio today that California had a mostly normal winter and is back to dry now. Sorry Edouard.
Title: Normal totals - not climate (Re: Northern CA's 2015-16 rainy season )
Post by: elagache on February 13, 2016, 10:07:59 PM
Dear Blick and WeatherCat drought watchers,

We have an inch of snow projected for this Sunday and up to 3 inches predicted for Thursday. In the meantime, our high mountain valleys have incredibly bad inversions, which will only be cleared out by the snowstorms so I am hoping they happen as forecast.

Well, I"m glad that you are seeing a change in the weather pattern.

I heard on the radio today that California had a mostly normal winter and is back to dry now. Sorry Edouard.

Well, I think northern California has ended up with close to normal rainfall totals, but the south has been drier than normal which is not what is expected for El Niño.  Also the rainfall hasn't been falling in a way that is normal for the north.  Autumn was drier than normal and we basically caught up because of extra rain in December and January.

Indeed we are suffering from this demon high pressure ridge.  However, the forecast models are continuing to show it will be broken down later this week and the models aren't showing the ridge immediately rebuilding after all.  The moisture taps that El Niño generates should still be out there.  In the past, El Niño has tended to produce two episodes of heavy rain: at the start of winter and the start of spring.  If that pattern holds up, the West may eek out at least partial relief from the drought.

Nonetheless, there is something really weird going on here.  It does look ominously like processes of climate change are already underway.  This is where climate science really needs to step up to the plate and inform society of what we can realistically expect.  Without better predictions of what to expect in the future - we are stuck with nothing more than hoping for precipitation and that clearly isn't enough to make it happen.

Edouard
Title: Rain was nice while it lasted (Re: Northern CA's 2015-16 rainy season.)
Post by: elagache on February 20, 2016, 10:31:04 PM
Dear WeatherCat west coast drought watchers,

The much vaunted California rain event of this past week indeed exceeded the forecasts.  We were expecting 0.25" to 0.50" of rain we ended up getting 0.91" of rain (23.1 mm.)  In addition there was high winds, hail, and thunderstorms greater than had been originally forecast.

Alas, a weaker storm forecast for Friday didn't hold together as well as the models had previously suggested.  As a result, we received only a moistening of 0.03" of rain.  Still any rain was welcome because of what had preceded it:

(http://www.canebas.org/misc/Voila_images/Storms%20of%202016-02-17.jpg)

Since February is the second wettest month typically, this is seriously bad news which is dramatically illustrated by the difference from normal rainfall graph:

(http://www.canebas.org/misc/Voila_images/Rainfall%20deficit%202016-02-20.jpg)

The current forecasts are looking extremely bleak for an additional rainfall before the end of the month.  So for the moment California is back into a serious bout of drought. (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/desert-smiley.gif)

Oh well, . . . . Edouard (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/pout.gif)
Title: Re: Highlights from Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season
Post by: Blicj11 on February 21, 2016, 06:44:55 AM
Nice to hear Edouard. That same storm dropped 6 inches of snow in our area.
Title: Some signs of change (Re: Northern CA's 2015-16 rainy season.)
Post by: elagache on February 21, 2016, 10:19:43 PM
Dear Blick and WeatherCat drought watchers,

Nice to hear Edouard. That same storm dropped 6 inches of snow in our area.

I'm glad that you received some help in recouping some of the snow lost in the record heat.  The California weather blog cautions against complete gloom and doom:

http://www.weatherwest.com/ (http://www.weatherwest.com/)

In addition, for the first time since January, the medium range models now forecast two storms (if both weak) in a row. The first is expected for the upcoming weekend and a second one into the following week.  Finally the Climate Predication Center is signaling a change back to a more wet weather pattern.  We'll just have to see.

For now, we are expecting another very warm week.  I'll have to start watering before the end of it and I might be forced to get the lawn mower out of winter storage.  Bummer dude it is still February! (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/rant.gif)

Cheers, Edouard
Title: Re: Some signs of change (Re: Northern CA's 2015-16 rainy season.)
Post by: Blicj11 on February 22, 2016, 03:56:41 PM
... I might be forced to get the lawn mower out of winter storage.

This is one of the reasons we moved into the mountains. No lawn, ergo no mowing required. I gave my lawn mower to my son-in-law when we moved up here 8 years ago. One of the best days of our lives.
Title: CPC backing off on wet. (Re: Northern CA's 2015-16 rainy season.)
Post by: elagache on February 23, 2016, 12:51:51 AM
Dear Blick and WeatherCat drought watchers,

... I might be forced to get the lawn mower out of winter storage.

This is one of the reasons we moved into the mountains. No lawn, ergo no mowing required. I gave my lawn mower to my son-in-law when we moved up here 8 years ago. One of the best days of our lives.

Rub it in will ya'! . . . .

Alas, the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center is starting to back-off on the promise of El Niño returning.  The 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook is now only for normal precipitation instead of above normal.  Also the storm for this coming weekend is once more fading away.  The demon ridge of high pressure continues to do its damage . . . .

Oh well, . . . . Edouard  :(
Title: Climate
Post by: dfw_pilot on February 23, 2016, 12:53:57 PM
Quote from: elagache
Climate Prediction Center is starting to back-off on the promise of El Niño returning
The climate prediction center might be wrong?? Gasp! They've been right so far on global warming, so they must be right on the weather forecasts 5-10 days in advance, right?

I'll crawl back into my hole . . .
Title: Waffling on whether climate change is already happening. (Re: Climate)
Post by: elagache on February 23, 2016, 11:30:13 PM
Dear dfw and WeatherCat weather observers,

Quote from: elagache
Climate Prediction Center is starting to back-off on the promise of El Niño returning
The climate prediction center might be wrong?? Gasp! They've been right so far on global warming, so they must be right on the weather forecasts 5-10 days in advance, right?

Well sadly you might have touched upon an extremely inconvenient truth about climate change.  Depending on who you read, some climate experts insist that temperatures are rising, but the climate hasn't been destabilized - yet.  Others insist the climate is already changing.  The latter point is extremely important for situations like the western drought.  If we are observing a new stable feature of winters along the west coast of north America, then it will never rain as much as we are normally expecting.  The new normal amount of rainfall is well below what is necessary to maintain the population densities we have in places like California and Arizona.  Sooner or later we'll exhaust our water reserves and that's it, literally millions of people will have to be relocated else where.  It isn't as dramatic as some other natural disasters, but it would make the current European refugee crisis look like a picnic.  Considering how much food is grown in California, the effects on the United States and the world could be catastrophic.

Right now I'm having a living nightmare.  The rains have stopped just as they have for several year in a row.  This change in the western US winter weather pattern is painfully stable.  I'm just a layman, but this sure looks like new stable feature of the climate - climate change is already here and is hurting people and businesses.

Not to start a politic battle, but there is strong movement to try to prevent climate change by throttling human produced CO2 emissions.  A lot of money is supposed to be spend on that agenda.  In California, attempt to expand our water reserves have run into a brick wall created by the environmental movement and the Democratic leadership in the state house.  If what I'm observing is really happening - it is already too late.  California and other western states are on the brink of a cataclysm. 

I've been extremely critical of the quality of climate research.  Way too much of it has been focused on the narrow and dubious question of is global temperatures actually rising.  Even with my now distant course on thermodynamics that took in college, I remember that temperature is nothing more than the average kinetic energy of the gas modules forming the atmosphere.  More energetic gas molecules will behave differently, so as a first approximation, any change in temperature should have a direct effect on climate.  Clearly there must be feedback relations that result in climate stability, but exactly what are these feedback relations and exactly how stable they are? That's been all part of the black magic of the climate science.  We have been asked to trust them instead of getting what we should expect from science - predictions we all can personally observe as accurate or not.

When such demands are made, we get a lot of hand waving about how hard prediction turns out to be.  Yet, the National Weather Service Climate Predication Center is able to predict this high pressure ridge over periods of 2 weeks.  What do they know and why aren't they telling us what this means over the long term?

I fear that more is known about our predicament than is being made public.  I fear there is a mix of denial and political correctness that is promoting "pie in the sky" responses when we might be facing a humanitarian crisis in as little as 1 year.

Every day that passes without rain around here, I get more and more scared . . .  (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/nervous_smiley.gif)

I'll crawl back into my hole . . .

I sure wish I could find a safe hole to escape from this one . . .

Edouard
Title: Climate Hoax
Post by: dfw_pilot on February 24, 2016, 12:38:22 AM
I agree. The Earth's climate is obviously changing, but like you say, more drought in California is probably due to the millions of people who have moved there over the last 100 years. I liken it to when people claim that through climate change, there are more hurricanes. Really? Based on what information? I say it's only because there are billions more people on the planet and many of those live closer to the sea to experience them that it seems like there are more. Sadly, California has spent billions of dollars it does not have to fund things like embryonic stem cell research. Nothing notable has come form that stem cell research. Meanwhile, the real problem of no water, the problem of the here and now, isn't fixed. Moonbeam hasn't spent money to build aqueducts or de-salinization plants, or a project to bring Pacific Northwest water down to the basin where people badly need it - today.

I'll preface all this by saying I believe that the Hoax that is Climate Change (or is it Global Warming, Al?) is the greatest scam ever to play out in human history. It has even become its own religion to many. It has never really been about saving the planet, but about destroying freedom, dismantling Capitalism, and handing over nearly all control to the state.

I agree wholeheartedly that our job as humans is to tend the garden (http://biblehub.com/genesis/2-15.htm) and we should treat our home with care and respect. But sadly, the climate change movement has become riddled with politics, to the point it can't be taken seriously today. There have been too many scandals, too many coverups of e-mails and data, and too much "green" money invested into the idea for it to be real science today. Big Climate Change has too much money wrapped up in it to be disavowed. Lots of good has come from the movement, like e-mail instead of mail, LED instead of incandescent, and on and on. The huge rub comes when the government tries to push agendas and pet projects like solar, long before the science is really ready (nasty CFL's anyone?). The answer is not more government regulation or meddling, but allowing the free market to decide these things, to let the free market determine winners and losers, not bureaucrats.

People, by nature, want to matter, or at least they want to feel like they matter. They feel like they matter when the do their part to save the planet from destruction by recycling or lowering their carbon footprint. It's a perfect way to perpetuate the myth of climate change, even though it only exists in computer models 50 years from now. We can't predict the weather in two weeks but 50 year climate models are correct? We only have data for a 100 year slice of the planet and think we can extrapolate that out and deem humans the problem? Much of North America was covered in ice, so yeah, climate change happens, but what caused the warming thousands of years ago? Was it evil oil (that comes from the earth)? People do matter (https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=John+3%3A16), even if they don't know it. But in the climate change hoax, I'm afraid people have glommed onto the wrong ideas.

I love the quote: "There is no consensus in science." Even if 100% of climate scientists agreed doesn't make it so, just like if they all agreed the moon was made of blue cheese, their belief doesn't make it so. Upton Sinclair could have been thinking about future climate scientists when he said, "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it."

dfw

(Now I'm really going to go back into my hole!)
Title: The paradox of "nature religion" (Re: Climate Hoax)
Post by: elagache on February 25, 2016, 11:53:50 PM
Dear dfw and WeatherCat social observers,

Not to be a dead horse, but I wanted to highlight two thing about your reply:

I agree. The Earth's climate is obviously changing, but like you say, more drought in California is probably due to the millions of people who have moved there over the last 100 years.

You are correct, but after all California is a democracy and people were aware that the water supply wasn't keeping up with the population growth.  But instead of rationally planning solutions to the water shortfalls, people soon broke down into the famous western water wars.

It is a troubling example of democracy enabling irrational behavior that ultimately people are paying for.

I'll preface all this by saying I believe that the Hoax that is Climate Change (or is it Global Warming, Al?) is the greatest scam ever to play out in human history. It has even become its own religion to many.

It is interesting that you also see environmentalism has been becoming a substitute for human religions.  This is a puzzle with two dimensions.  The people who embrace nature as a kind of religion nonetheless are rejecting traditional religions - why would they not reject nature worship as just as irrational?  If they experience a religious itch - isn't it proof enough there must something genuine about human spirituality?

At another level worshiping nature is a fool's errand.  Sure human find things that are grand, beautiful, inspiring and so on in nature, but do they exist to move us in such ways?  If you take cold scientific view: grandeur, beauty, inspiration exist within the human mind alone.  Sunrises like the one I've been photographing have occurred (presumably) for billions of years.  Borrowing from Jean Paul Sartre, if a sunrise happens, but there is nobody to appreciate it - is it beautiful?

Moreover, nature worship is a kind of trap within its freedom.  At some level it is like motherhood and apple pie - how could that go wrong?  Well, established religions would disagree.  Western civilization is founded on moral foundations like: thou shall not kill.  In nature, things kill each other all the time and that's natural.  Even species become extinct and humanity could suffer that fate with everything remaining natural.  Whether it is a lion or the Ebola virus, in truth nature is merciless.  Nature as revealed by our scientific understand of things is utterly without hope - as the current drought in California attests.

So there is something extremely peculiar about people trying to find a "back door" to scratch their religious itch.  It isn't the innocent practice people imagine it to be.

Edouard
Title: Re: Highlights from Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season
Post by: xairbusdriver on February 26, 2016, 03:48:21 PM
"Scams" are a favorite and personal topic of mine.<Mail Scam Alert.com (http://mailscamalert.com/index.html)>

<sermon>I think most conspiracy theorists put way too much intelligence and cooperativeness in other humans. From local school boards to the United Nations, we see examples of how hard it is to get even a consensus, much less a "plan" to do anything. [rolleyes2]

Saying that "scientific consensus doesn't make it true/correct" is accurate to a degree. But that is much different than saying a consensus proves a conspiracy. A "majority" of voters greats a "consensus" in the minds of those elected and no one would argue that that proves anything to be correct or even moral.

However, "science" operates much differently than any form of government. It's basic tenant is to question the results by any 'proofs' of a hypothosis. Any reported result must be tested by others to prove, by repeatable actions, that something is 'true'. And even then, it is said to be 'true' when using the available methods for testing. That's why previous 'proofs' or later rejected when more comprehensive methods became available. Some of the designers of the X-1 claimed it's supersonic flight 'proved' that swept wings were unnecessary! ;) What it really proved is that a brick can 'fly' if the engine is powerful enough! [lol] As far as I know, there are very few scientific "facts". All we have are repeatable results that support a hypothesis which can be changed as new information appears.

I have no problem agreeing that humans have affected the world's climate. We have certainly created problems for thousands of years in just about every thing else on this planet. I believe "Man" has dominion over this world, but that doesn't mean he has the wisdom to do what is best for it. The least we can do is conserve and protect what we have to the best of our abilities. Stop buying more food than you need, stop adding non-degradable plastic to the oceans... </sermon>

If everyone believed and behaved as I do...
we'd probably be extinct by now! [banghead]
Title: Da' sequel is HERE!! (Re: Northern CA's 2015-16 rainy season)
Post by: elagache on March 07, 2016, 12:08:42 AM
Dear WeatherCat western US drought watchers,

Well the promised front was . . . . an overachiever!!  Here is a summary of the notifications from my WC Storm Monitor AppleScript:

(http://www.canebas.org/misc/Voila_images/Storm%20summary%202016-03-05.jpg)

The peak rate was substantially greater than what my AppleScript sampled:

(http://www.canebas.org/misc/Voila_images/Recent%20precip%202016-03-06.jpg)

Unfortunately, I don't see any way to check on this, but a rainfall rate of 8.73" per hour (221.7 mm per hour) might well be a record for my station.

Here is the graph of rainfall:

(http://www.canebas.org/misc/Voila_images/Rainfall%20Graph%202016-03-06.jpg)

We are at 2.60" (66mm) of rain for the total storm and are expecting another strong impulse this afternoon and tonight.

Later this week into the weekend is expected another series of strong storms.

So it would appear that the California rainfall spigot is definitely back on!  I made a check of the neighborhood and beyond some flooding and one large branch being down, everything looked okay.  About a mile from my house a tree came down and took out power according to a local police report.  All in all, not too bad given the severity of this storm.  Nonetheless with more storms coming, California may be in for too much of a good thing!  [thunder]

Stay tuned! (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/tune_in_TV_emoticon.gif)

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]

Title: Re: Highlights from Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season
Post by: xairbusdriver on March 07, 2016, 12:12:05 AM
At least too much too fast... Should help fill some reservoirs but probably won't help the water table. Remember, there's a black cloud inside every silver lining! [blush]
Title: Funny
Post by: dfw_pilot on March 07, 2016, 01:15:02 AM
Quote from: xairbusdriver
Remember, there's a black cloud inside every silver lining!

LOL!
Title: Re: Highlights from Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season
Post by: Blicj11 on March 07, 2016, 07:41:54 PM
We got 5 inches of wet snow when that storm hit northern Utah. Keep 'em coming.
Title: Photos of storm damage (Re: Northern CA's 2015-16 rainy season )
Post by: elagache on March 07, 2016, 11:04:04 PM
Dear X-Air, dfw, Blick, and WeatherCat drought watchers,

Remember, there's a black cloud inside every silver lining! [blush]

Speaking of da' devil . . . .  (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/devil.gif)

There was some serious storm damage.  Here is a photo of that tree that feel down and took out power lines on Saturday night:

(https://canebas.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Winter-2016/i-dhFBHmJ/0/XL/Truck%20of%20tree%20fallen%20March%205%2C%202016-XL.jpg)

Here is the other side of the road that was blocked:

(https://canebas.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Winter-2016/i-cCKcFmd/0/XL/Branches%20from%20tree%20that%20blocked%20road%20March%205%2C%202016%20-XL.jpg)

You can see in the upper left corner of the photo the power lines that had been taken down.  Finally, here is a photo of a branch that fell down and blocked a neighbors driveway:

(https://canebas.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Winter-2016/i-B39WVvh/0/XL/Branch%20broken%20in%20storm%20March%205%2C%202016%20-XL.jpg)

So indeed this isn't the sort of rain that would be preferred to end the drought.  However, compared to drought - well, any rain is better than none at all.

Cheers, Edouard
Title: Re: Highlights from Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season
Post by: xairbusdriver on March 09, 2016, 05:01:33 PM
Wish I could send some of the following out your way:
Quote
...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER... .A STALLED FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TO EAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...EXTREME WEST TENNESSEE...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH AT LEAST LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED WHICH WILL LIKELY
We've had ~2.2 inches by 11am. At least it's not thunderstorms and heavy.
Title: More rain and more damage (Re: Northern CA's 2015-16 rainy season)
Post by: elagache on March 14, 2016, 12:00:11 AM
Dear WeatherCat observers of the California water spigot.

Well, the spigot remains on with another series of very wet storm marching one after the other.  There have been mudslides a few miles from here and I took this picture of a fence that had been blown down:

(https://canebas.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Winter-2016/i-Cxr3ZXf/0/XL/Fence%20down%20after%20storm%20of%20March%2010%2C%202016%20-XL.jpg)

There is a report of a sinkhole on a nearby road and flooding in a low-lying shopping center.  At home, the soil is getting as saturated as it normally can get but no signs of flooding. 

We have received 3.95" (100 mm) of rain since Wednesday.  We may get a little more overnight.  However, it is supposed stop raining for the entire work-week.  That will allow for repairs and for rivers and streams to recede.  However, the long range models are hinting at more rain starting the following week.  We'll see . . . .

Cheers, Edouard

 ;) . . . . P.S. Ya' know, I think those folks with that broken fence are facing a crisis.  I think this year they are really going to have to take down their Christmas lights! . . . . .  [biggrin]
Title: Re: More rain and more damage (Re: Northern CA's 2015-16 rainy season)
Post by: Blicj11 on March 14, 2016, 02:00:20 PM
;) . . . . P.S. Ya' know, I think those folks with that broken fence are facing a crisis.  I think this year they are really going to have to take down their Christmas lights! . . . . .  [biggrin]

Ha ha ha! Thanks for the laugh.

It's snowing here today and tomorrow, so keep sending those storms eastward Edouard!
Title: Rain after 16 days. (Re: Northern CA's 2015-16 rainy season.)
Post by: elagache on April 09, 2016, 10:39:40 PM
Dear WeatherCat rain dancers,

It has only been 16 days since our last significant rainfall, but it felt more like a month.  Oddly this is a storm spinning off of southern California that has brought us rain.  Normally we get storms traveling from north to south.  We have gotten 0.54" (13.7mm).  It isn't a lot but is double what was forecast and we might pick up a little more before the storm ends.  It is enough to wet the ground and allow me to stop watering once more.

With the rain came good news and bad.  The good news came in the form of blooming wild-flowers:

(https://canebas.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-spring-2016/i-Q8MQJ5G/0/XL/California%20poppy%20in%20the%20rain%20-XL.jpg) (https://canebas.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-spring-2016/i-Q8MQJ5G/A)

This California poppy is in some rocky soil that prevents the grass from growing so it is doing very well at the moment.  On the other hand this grass does appear to be disturbed:

(https://canebas.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-spring-2016/i-tRmTbbh/0/XL/Strange%20deformations%20of%20grass%20on%20hillside%20-XL.jpg) (https://canebas.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-spring-2016/i-tRmTbbh/A)

If you look carefully, this region of falling grass starts and ends abruptly before the bottom of the hill is reached.  While it might be caused by an animal (or juvenile delinquent,) there are no tracks or other signs indicating something traveled to the fallen grass.  There were a number of such regions some as far as 20 feet away from the road and once more no breaks in the grasses leading to regions.

On the other hand, gophers have been very active in the region because this is a electrical utility right of way that remains wild as a result.  Those burrows would of course provide a perfect "drain" for rainwater.  It appears to me like this is the beginning of significant slide activity on this hill.  Since at the base of this hill is a road, residents might soon be inconvenienced by having this road at least partially blocked.

The "joys" of living in a place were either it is a drought or a flood . . . .

Cheers, Edouard
Title: Bluebonnets
Post by: dfw_pilot on April 09, 2016, 10:58:19 PM
Early spring rains brought out the Texas State flower (illegal to pick on public grounds).

Found some weeds growing amongst the Bluebonnets :)
Title: Re: Highlights from Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season
Post by: Blicj11 on April 09, 2016, 11:56:28 PM
Great looking weeds!!

In 1981, my first job out of uni was in Houston. I worked with a colleague whose parents came from Iran. He was new to Texas and he failed to show up for work on the Monday following our first week. He had been arrested and put in jail for picking bluebonnets next to the highway on his way to Austin for the weekend.

Don't mess with Texas.
Title: Re: Highlights from Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season
Post by: xairbusdriver on April 10, 2016, 12:56:41 AM
OK, dfw, that's not fair! Who could possibly top those adorable kids with any kind of "weather"!!!

edouard, I see rice and wheat looking like that after a strong thunderstorm. Usually, a heavy downpour is accompanied by some fairly strong downdrafts. That's why most pilots won't land while a thunderstorm over an airport or the approach to the runway. Those types of storms usually move fairly fast, you should have planned on them being where you intend to land at your ETA and have some extra fuel to hold at a nice safe distance while enjoying the "light show".

Another possibility for the 'lazy' grass could be some of those California leprechauns, they don't usually leave foot prints and are known to hop long distances.
Title: Re: Highlights from Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season
Post by: Bull Winkus on April 10, 2016, 06:23:07 AM
Nice camera work, Pilot! Having excellent subjects always helps, but seriously… good job!

You know, in Texas even the weeds are adorable!

 [cheers1]
Title: Very strange. (Re: Northern CA's 2015-16 rainy season)
Post by: elagache on April 10, 2016, 10:05:15 PM
Dear dfw, Blick, X-Air, Herb, and WeatherCat gardeners, . . .

Early spring rains brought out the Texas State flower (illegal to pick on public grounds).

Thanks for the nice photo!


Found some weeds growing amongst the Bluebonnets :)

Cute!  :)

 ;) . . . Of course I could make a crass remark about using Roundup! . . .  [lol2]

edouard, I see rice and wheat looking like that after a strong thunderstorm.

That isn't a bad guess but it was a very weak storm with essentially no wind, so that cannot be the cause.  I went by the area and look another look.  Some of the depressions look like they have been made by deer moving around.  There is faint paths leading in and out.  However, others like the one I photographed are too steep for a dear to have made.  Still it does appear to have been made by an object moving along the road rather than the earth sliding down.

Another possibility for the 'lazy' grass could be some of those California leprechauns, they don't usually leave foot prints and are known to hop long distances.

Well, it is either them leprechauns or d'em dreaded gremlins! (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/gremlin_emoticon.png)

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: Rainfall
Post by: dfw_pilot on April 12, 2016, 04:43:30 AM
Got this picture out the front windshield on our way home today. Five minutes later, we were in our garage and the hail started. Peak rain rate was 16+ inches per hour. Whoa!
Title: Re: Highlights from Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season
Post by: Blicj11 on April 12, 2016, 02:25:15 PM
Whoa is correct!
Title: Re: Highlights from Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season
Post by: xairbusdriver on April 12, 2016, 02:36:39 PM
Good thing that 'tip-bucket' bearing is water-cooled! [tup] Not sure that funnel would be able to handle that rate for very long, either! Hope the hail didn't bend any of those bird pokers! [rolleyes2]
Title: Great escape! (Re: Rainfall)
Post by: elagache on April 12, 2016, 11:50:18 PM
Dear dfw, Blick, X-Air, and WeatherCat "escape artists, "

Got this picture out the front windshield on our way home today. Five minutes later, we were in our garage and the hail started. Peak rain rate was 16+ inches per hour. Whoa!

Indeed glad you made it home!  I sure hope you have a strong roof!

Cheers, Edouard
Title: Re: Highlights from Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season
Post by: Bull Winkus on April 13, 2016, 03:56:54 AM
Lot's of damage around Dallas from that storm.

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/files/2016/04/Cf2J9xqUMAAUv1A.jpg&w=1484)
Title: Re: Highlights from Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season
Post by: Blicj11 on April 13, 2016, 04:39:33 AM
This is one of the reasons that we moved out of Texas 8 years ago. We loved living there and raising our family there. But honestly, the weather did us in. We lived there for almost 30 years. During that time we had two hurricanes, one tropical storm, too many floods to count and snow on one Christmas Eve. The humidity was what finally drove us out after we got our youngest off to uni. My wife says we traded 8 months of hot and humid for 8 months of cold and dry and we are thrilled to be here now.
Title: Re: Highlights from Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season
Post by: Bull Winkus on April 13, 2016, 05:04:20 AM
I know exactly what you mean. I lived for 4 years in Tyler, TX and another year and a half on Lake Fork near Sulphur Springs. The last summer, on Lake Fork, before going to Michigan, we had 3 weeks where the daily high was at or near 115° F. I'm surprised you only moved to a mountain top and not the North Pole!

What's it like to be in a Texas hail storm. This video show you in slow motion.
https://www.facebook.com/CBSDFW/videos/1186385171384617/

 [cheers1]
Title: Re: Highlights from Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season
Post by: Blicj11 on April 13, 2016, 03:56:06 PM
What's it like to be in a Texas hail storm. This video show you in slow motion.
https://www.facebook.com/CBSDFW/videos/1186385171384617/

What a great video. Mother Nature is impressive.
Title: Re: Highlights from Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season
Post by: Blicj11 on April 13, 2016, 04:15:59 PM
And apologies to the OP (Edouard) for hijacking his California thread to talk about Texas. He might be so busy tuning up the fuel injection on his Buick, running Windows on his MacBook to notice we helped his thread take a small detour from the West Coast to the Gulf Coast.
Title: Pool
Post by: dfw_pilot on April 13, 2016, 04:25:24 PM
My kind of pool . . .
Title: End of the season (Re: Northern CA 2015-16 rainy season)
Post by: elagache on April 14, 2016, 12:31:31 AM
Dear Herb, Blick, dfw, and WeatherCat extreme weather watchers (preferably from a long distance away!)

And apologies to the OP (Edouard) for hijacking his California thread to talk about Texas. He might be so busy tuning up the fuel injection on his Buick, running Windows on his MacBook to notice we helped his thread take a small detour from the West Coast to the Gulf Coast.

No worries.  This thread is more gossip than anything else.  Still it is interesting to see the weather in other parts of the country and the world.  The latest discussion isn't encouraging me to move to Texas in any way shape or form!  :o

Yesterday was a busy wagon day and I did some more data collection using my MacBook on how the fuel injection was performing while driving.  However, today I have been running ragged trying to prepare for a brief rain event tonight.  The goal wasn't cleaning so much as fertilizing.  It could be one of the last rain events around here and rain water is always the best to activate fertilizer.  I'm hoping for more rain, but I'm starting to prepare for that long dry season that isn't far away anymore.

Cheers, Edouard   [cheers1]
Title: A little more rain (Re: Northern CA 2015-16 rainy season)
Post by: elagache on April 22, 2016, 11:45:13 PM
Dear WeatherCat drought watchers,

A "late season" storm blew through the San Francisco bay area today and provided still more rain.  We ended up with 0.33" (8.4mm) and might pickup a bit more before the storm is over.

In addition, while the models aren't in very good agreement, they all show a chance of showers next week.  So perhaps California will end up with more than its usual quota of "April showers."

Cheers, Edouard
Title: Re: Highlights from Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season
Post by: Blicj11 on April 23, 2016, 07:15:22 AM
Good news. This year's El Niño-influenced storms in the Bay Area, have turned into moisture-laden snow storms as they moved eastward, over Utah and Colorado. Keep it coming.