Author Topic: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Autumn 2016  (Read 3393 times)

elagache

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NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Autumn 2016
« on: October 01, 2016, 12:22:47 AM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Sorry I dropped the ball at the end of summer, but I'll try to get back on track for Autumn.  Here is the latest 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for October:



Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for October through December:



The temperature forecasts appear to me to be a broken record and at least in my neck of the woods they have not been accurate.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for October:



Here is the equivalent graph for October to December:



There is a forecast of drought in the old south and extra precipitation for northwestern plains, but otherwise the Climate Prediction Center is being poker faced about what the west will face as far winter precipitation for the most of the drought-stricken western United States.

Edouard

elagache

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November's forecast (Re: NWS - CPC forecasts - Autumn 2016)
« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2016, 10:52:28 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Here is the latest 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for November:



Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for November through January:



The temperature forecasts appear to me to be a broken record and at least in my neck of the woods they have not been accurate.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for November:



Here is the equivalent graph for November to January:



It is odd how the 1 month precipitation prediction is so different from the 3 month, especially for Texas. 

Edouard

Blicj11

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Re: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Autumn 2016
« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2016, 04:14:00 AM »
These forecasts are not as favourable as previous ones. Please redo and post good ones.  ;)
Blick


elagache

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Where's Apple's "EarthKit?" (Re: NWS - CPC - Autumn 2016)
« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2016, 10:10:14 PM »
Dear Blick and WeatherCat wishers for a planetary "thermostat."

These forecasts are not as favourable as previous ones. Please redo and post good ones.  ;)

You ain't kiddin'
  :( No reason for panic yet, but the CPC 6-10 and 8-14 rain outlook is way below normal for our area and much of the west.  Sure hope they are wrong about that.

Edouard

elagache

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December's forecast (Re: NWS - CPC forecasts - Autumn 2016)
« Reply #4 on: December 01, 2016, 11:17:43 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Here is the latest 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for December:



If this does pan out, we may be in for a chilly December.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for December through February:



This forecast returns to dubious the broken record.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for December:



Here is the equivalent graph for December to February:



If this forecast rings true there will be some drought relief in the Southeast in December, but alas not far enough East it appears, and an overall drought pattern continuing.  The 3 month forecast suggests a La Nina effect for the Southern 1/3 of the country.

Edouard

Blicj11

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Re: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Autumn 2016
« Reply #5 on: December 02, 2016, 01:17:36 AM »
Thanks for posting better projections than you did a month ago. You are getting better with age, just like your Buick..
Blick


Felix

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Re: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Autumn 2016
« Reply #6 on: December 02, 2016, 11:56:31 AM »
I see the NWS forecast for the Eastern Seaboard is coming right in line with the Old Farmer's Almanac which was published back in late-August.


I always get a kick out of comparing the two. On one hand, we have a guy running MATLAB on a personal computer (using Windows I'm sure, or at least a Windows partition on a Mac, since the Windows version of MATLAB runs much faster) and solving a bunch of proprietary ordinary and partial differential equations versus a Chantilly, Virginia NWS staff of 50 running a $44.5 million supercomputer called Luna, the 51st most powerful supercomputer to date.


The Almanac has boasted an 80% accuracy rate for decades. And according to a regional newspaper article I read last last year, the NWS does almost 3% better than the Almanac on their long-range forecasts.


So, 10 - 12 grand (estimated for a top-end PC and commercial version of MATLAB with the requisite "toolboxes") and a staff of one meteorologist versus 44.5 million and a staff of 50 meteorologists, engineers, computer scientists/programmers, statisticians, mathematicians, technicians, support staff. Cost effective to get <3% better accuracy? Obviously just kidding, that Chantilly group does a lot more than just put out a rolling long-range forecast. And inside of 72 hours, they are the best we have by a wide margin.


BTW, Robert Thomas founded the Old Farmer's Almanac back in 1792. He believed that the Earth's weather could be reliably predicted by using sunspot data and apparently had goodness-of fit statistics to back up his beliefs, ergo, the early editions of the yearly Almanac were influenced heavily by sunspot predictions.

Blicj11

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Re: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Autumn 2016
« Reply #7 on: December 02, 2016, 06:08:40 PM »
Very interesting post, Felix. Thanks for sharing.  [tup]
Blick


elagache

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Thanks - Xmas present idea! (Re: NWS - CPC forecasts - Autumn 2016)
« Reply #8 on: December 02, 2016, 11:51:04 PM »
Dear Felix, Blick, and WeatherCat Christmas shoppers,

I see the NWS forecast for the Eastern Seaboard is coming right in line with the Old Farmer's Almanac which was published back in late-August.

Hmm, we haven't had a copy of the Old Farmer's Almanac in the house in a while.  That should make a nice Christmas present.  Thanks for giving me the idea!

Cheers, Edouard