Author Topic: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Winter 2017-18  (Read 351 times)

elagache

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NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Winter 2017-18
« on: January 01, 2018, 11:28:04 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Here is the latest 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for January:



The Eastern part of the United States is predicted to be cooler while a high pressure is expected to remain over the 4-corners and effect a large part of the West.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for January through March:



Once more, there is a prediction of above normal temperatures for a wide swath of the county. 

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for January:



The regions of below normal precipitation have been reduced and some areas are expected to receive above normal moisture, but the majority of the country is left in the "unknown" category.

Here is the equivalent graph for January to March:



The Northern third of the country is expected to get above normal precipitation, while the Southern third would be deprived of moisture.

Continuing from last month, here are drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for January:



It shows the drought in the South improving in some places while drought continues to fester in the Southwest.

Here is the equivalent 3 month outlook:



The 3 month outlook has drought expanding through many areas of the South and Southwest even as far North as the San Francisco Bay Area.

Such are the forecasts we are facing . . . .  :(

Edouard

Blicj11

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Re: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1 on: January 02, 2018, 12:13:41 AM »
The 3 month outlook has drought expanding through many areas of the South and Southwest even as far North as the San Francisco Bay Area.
Such are the forecasts we are facing . . . .  :(

No good for us water worriers.
Blick


elagache

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February's outlooks (Re: NWS - CPC forecasts - Winter 2017-18)
« Reply #2 on: February 01, 2018, 11:30:07 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Here is the latest 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for February:



This forecast is somewhat similar to last month's which didn't thankfully didn't pan out at least in the West

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for February through April:



This also looks similar to last month.  Thus, Caveat Emptor is appropriate. 

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for February:



This is a definitely gloom and doom forecast for much of the West and South.  The North would be in the positive realm if this were to pan out.

Here is the equivalent graph for February to April:



The Northern third of the country is expected to get above normal precipitation, while the Southern third would be deprived of moisture.

Continuing from last month, here are drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for February:



It shows the drought in the South improving in some places while drought continues to fester in the Southwest.

Here is the equivalent 3 month outlook:



The 3 month outlook has drought expanding through many areas of the South and Southwest, although it backs off on the claim that drought would spread as far North as the San Francisco bay area.

The reliability of these outlooks appears to be typical and therefore your mileage will most definitely vary.  Nonetheless, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . .  :(

Edouard

Blicj11

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Re: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Winter 2017-18
« Reply #3 on: February 02, 2018, 04:53:16 AM »
More bad news for the western US.
Blick


elagache

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March's outlooks (Re: NWS - CPC forecasts - Winter 2017-18)
« Reply #4 on: March 02, 2018, 12:24:40 AM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Here is the latest 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for March:



There is a surprising forecast of colder weather in the West which hasn't happened in a while.  Also a wide swath of the Eastern seaboard escapes the usual higher temperatures.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for March through May:



This also looks similar to last month.  Thus, Caveat Emptor is appropriate. 

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for March:



This is a surprise that large areas of the West and the Midwest are expected to have above normal rainfall.

Here is the equivalent graph for March to May:



The Northern third of the country is expected to get above normal precipitation, while the Southern third would be deprived of moisture.

Continuing from last month, here are drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for March:



It shows the drought in the South improving in some places while drought continues to fester in the Southwest.

Here is the equivalent 3 month outlook:



The 3 month outlook has drought expanding through many areas of the Southwest and renews the claim that drought would spread to Northern California and even Southern Oregon.  On the other hand the conditions in the Southeast improve.

The reliability of these outlooks appears to be typical and therefore your mileage will most definitely vary.  Nonetheless, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

Blicj11

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Re: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Winter 2017-18
« Reply #5 on: March 02, 2018, 06:14:45 PM »
Sure doesn't look too promising. Thanks for posting.
Blick