Author Topic: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?  (Read 26523 times)

elagache

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A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?
« on: July 15, 2017, 10:19:39 PM »
Dear WeatherCat Climate watchers,

Mid-summer is the first opportunity for use to get some idea of what we might expect in terms of El Ni?o or La Ni?a effects on our upcoming winter.  Well the prognosticators have weighed and the answer is - neutral!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

As the synopsis reads:

ENSO-neutral is favored (~50 to 55% chance) into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18

So does that mean we might have a "normal" winter this year?  I suppose we could always hope , but I sure wouldn't count on it!

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
« Last Edit: September 29, 2020, 11:10:13 PM by elagache »

elagache

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La Ni?a watch? (Re: El Ni?o or La Ni?a? )
« Reply #1 on: September 16, 2017, 10:46:26 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Earlier this summer, the Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWSand the International Research Institute for Climate and Society folks had predicted a neutral year with neither an El Ni?o or La Ni?a event.  Well things have changed and we are now under a La Ni?a watch.  Here is the report:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

Here is a quote for the most relevant bit:

Quote
A majority of the models in the IRI/CPC suite of Ni?o-3.4 predictions favor ENSO-neutral through the Northern Hemisphere 2017-18 winter [Fig. 6]. However, the most recent predictions from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) and the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) indicate the formation of La Ni?a as soon as the Northern Hemisphere fall 2017 [Fig. 7]. Forecasters favor these predictions in part because of the recent cooling of surface and sub-surface temperature anomalies, and also because of the higher degree of forecast skill at this time of year. In summary, there is an increasing chance (~55-60%) of La Ni?a during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

The past few La Ni?a events have caused atmospheric rivers to become more intense and has brought a lot of moisture to the Western United States.  For those who forgot, last year was a La Ni?a:

http://athena.trixology.com/index.php?topic=2221.msg22663#msg22663

So we may be in for another wet winter.

We'll just have to wait and see . . . . . .

Cheers, Edouard

Blicj11

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Re: La Ni?a watch? (Re: El Ni?o or La Ni?a? )
« Reply #2 on: September 24, 2017, 06:41:00 AM »
So we may be in for another wet winter.

Sign me up.
Blick


elagache

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Beware of what you wish for . . . . (Re: La Ni?a watch?)
« Reply #3 on: September 24, 2017, 10:14:25 PM »
Dear Blick and WeatherCat Western US drought flood? watchers?!?!??

So we may be in for another wet winter.

Sign me up.

I certainly don't want the drought to start up again, but the rains definitely did a lot of damage around here.  The roads have suffered a lot because of the extremes of the soil.  In the middle of the rains the ground swelled a great deal and now with the very hot and dry summer, the ground has contracted to another extreme.  California rode out last winter mostly in stride, but our luck might not hold out if we get battered by a series of atmospheric rivers again.

I sure wish moderation would once more return to "climatological fashion."

Grin and bear it!  Edouard

elagache

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La Ni?a watch for another month. (Re: El Ni?o or La Ni?a? )
« Reply #4 on: October 16, 2017, 11:38:35 PM »
Dear WeatherCat types affected by El Ni?o and/or La Ni?a,

The CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society have updated their El Ni?o /La Ni?a predictions and we continue to be under a La Ni?a watch.  Here is the full briefing:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The punch-line is: "La Ni?a conditions are favored (~55-65%) during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18."

This is further bolstered by the puzzling technical jargon to be found in the discussion for the first storm expected for this year on Thursday.  The offending sentence reads as follows (key text with my emphasis) :

"IVT progs are focusing on Thursday evening being the best shot for moderate rainfall (coverage has decreased, but a narrow band of values over 500 KG/m/s are now indicated)."

To those who forgot from last year - IVT stands for Integrated Water Vapor Transport and Kg/m/s is a measure of how much water vapor is being transported.  In other words, by decoding the technical jargon, it is clear that there was already the possibility for an atmospheric river event this early in October.  The forecast has since downgraded the potential rainfall, but those of you in harm's way of atmospheric rivers might want to start preparing . . . . . just in case! . . .

Cheers, Edouard

Blicj11

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Re: La Ni?a watch for another month. (Re: El Ni?o or La Ni?a? )
« Reply #5 on: October 17, 2017, 07:00:22 PM »
The forecast has since downgraded the potential rainfall, but those of you in harm's way of atmospheric rivers might want to start preparing . . . . . just in case! . . .

I am preparing the ark.
Blick


elagache

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Is that why you are into computers? (Re: El Ni?o or La Ni?a? )
« Reply #6 on: October 18, 2017, 12:31:49 AM »
Dear "Noah"  ;) and WeatherCat "survivalists," . . . . .  [biggrin]

I am preparing the ark.

[wink] . . . Well if you are going to all that trouble, perhaps you should "supersize" the Biblical dimensions for your ark, since it seems that we have identified quite a few more species than the Old Testament would have suggested.  You also probably need all your binary math skills you can muster so you count all those animals one and then two to make sure you have a pair!! . . . .  lol(1)

Cheers, Edouard  [biggrin]

elagache

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It's official: a La Ni?a Advisory. (Re: El Ni?o or La Ni?a? )
« Reply #7 on: November 13, 2017, 12:06:20 AM »
Dear WeatherCat climate observers,

Those folks at the Climate Predication Center and and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society have made if official.  We are now under a La Ni?a Advisory:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The summary reads:  "La Ni?a conditions are predicted to continue (~65-75% chance) at least through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18. "

The key points of discussion can be summarized as follows:

" During October, weak La Ni?a conditions emerged as reflected by below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

. . . .

For the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18, a weak La Ni?a is favored in the model averages of the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] and also in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) [Fig. 7]. The consensus of forecasters is for the event to continue through approximately February-April 2018. In summary, La Ni?a conditions are predicted to continue (~65-75% chance) at least through the Northern Hemisphere winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period). "


So for all of you affected by La Ni?a events, the next question is to figure out exactly what do La Ni?a event actually does to your location.  There was a time when La Ni?as caused drought in the Western United States.  However, between the fact that last year as also a La Ni?a and the current forecast for the rest of November, I decided to clean the storm drains this afternoon.  Alas, of course they needed more cleaning than I had hoped.   When it comes to home maintenance, the work is never done . . . .

Oh well, . . . . . Edouard

elagache

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La Ni?a Advisory for another month (Re: El Ni?o or La Ni?a? )
« Reply #8 on: December 20, 2017, 11:07:35 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate observers,

Those folks at the Climate Predication Center and and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society have an update on the El Ni?o or La Ni?a situation:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The summary reads:  "La Ni?a is likely (exceeding ~80%) through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18, with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely during the mid-to-late spring."

The key points of discussion can be summarized as follows:

"La Ni?a strengthened during the past month, as indicated by an increasingly prominent pattern of below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean

. . . .

La Ni?a is predicted to persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18 by nearly all models in the IRI/CPC plume and in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME).


. . . .

La Ni?a is anticipated to affect temperature and precipitation across the United States during the upcoming months (the 3-month seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks will be updated on Thursday December 21st). The outlooks generally favor above-average temperatures and below-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, and below-average temperatures and above-median precipitation across the northern tier of the United States."


The expected effects of La Ni?a leave the center of the United States up for grabs.  Last year there is no doubt that rainfall was much above average for the Northern 1/2 of the Western United States.  Thus far, we are looking at drought conditions for all of the Western United States as far North as Washington state.  Alas, La Ni?a is Spanish for "the little girl,"  so I suppose we can only expect this weather phenomena to be "fickle." . . . . . .

Oh well, . . . . . Edouard

Blicj11

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Re: A year without either an El Ni?o or a La Ni?a?
« Reply #9 on: December 21, 2017, 02:13:04 AM »
Thanks for the update Edouard.

It is snowing here as I type. Send more.
Blick


elagache

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La Ni?a fading away. (Re: El Ni?o or a La Ni?a?)
« Reply #10 on: February 24, 2018, 10:48:23 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

There is another report on this year's weak La Ni?a:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The La Ni?a Advisory continues, but the forecast is that this won't last for much longer.  Here is the synopsis: 

Quote
A transition from La Ni?a to ENSO-neutral is most likely during the Northern Hemisphere spring (~55% chance of ENSO-neutral during the March-May season).

Given how dry this Winter has been, perhaps that will allow for more normal precipitation during Spring.  We'll see . . . .

Cheers, Edouard

elagache

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La Ni?a not gone yet. (Re: El Ni?o or a La Ni?a?)
« Reply #11 on: March 08, 2018, 11:28:19 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Today there was another report on La Ni?a from the the Climate Predication Center and and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The synopsis is very much like last month:

Quote
A transition from La Ni?a to ENSO-neutral is most likely (~55% chance) during the March-May season, with neutral conditions likely to continue into the second half of the year.


However, the alert status is still: La Ni?a Advisory and according to the observed data:

Quote
During February 2018, La Ni?a weakened, but was still reflected by below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1].

So the predictions remain the same, but only time will tell if this month will be the end of La Ni?a or not.

Stay tuned!

Cheers, Edouard

elagache

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La Ni?a still hanging around. (Re: El Ni?o or a La Ni?a?)
« Reply #12 on: April 16, 2018, 11:29:11 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

There is an update to the El Ni?o or a La Ni?a forecast. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

As you may remember the sea surface temperatures were supposed to return to neutral in the March-May time frame.  Well, here we are in April and the latest report announces:

Quote
During March 2018, La Ni?a continued to weaken, but was still reflected by below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1].

Nonetheless, the forecasters are sticking to their guns:

Quote
Most models in the IRI/CPC plume predict La Ni?a will decay and return to ENSO-neutral during the current March-May season [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus similarly favors a transition to neutral, with a continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions through the summer 2018.

Beyond that, well there isn't nearly as much enthusiasm to predict the future:

Quote
Thereafter, there is considerable forecast uncertainty, in part due to the lower prediction skill for forecasts made at this time of year.


 ;) . . . . . So continues the El Ni?o or a La Ni?a soap opera for 2018! . . . .  ;D

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]

xairbusdriver

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Re: A year without either an El Ni?o or a La Ni?a?
« Reply #13 on: April 17, 2018, 01:41:08 AM »
"Nonetheless, the forecasters are sticking to their guns" How can you be "consistent" if you keep changing your mind(s)?! If they pict the right forecast, they are bound to be correct, someday! For me, if I have a chance to change my mind, I usually do it right before my current opinion is confirmed!! [banghead] cmu:-) [rolleyes2] [blush]
THERE ARE TWO TYPES OF COUNTRIES
Those that use metric = #1 Measurement system
And the United States = The Banana system


elagache

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La Ni?a finally sent packing, but . . . . (Re: El Ni?o or a La Ni?a?)
« Reply #14 on: May 14, 2018, 11:20:28 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

The Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society have issued (to quote:) their "Final La Ni?a Advisory."

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The critical bit of data is (once more I quote:) "During April 2018, the tropical Pacific returned to ENSO-neutral, as indicated by mostly near-to- below average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) along the equator."

However, just when you thought you could relax because things were back to "normal," the discussion goes on to say: "The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict ENSO-neutral to continue at least through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2018. As the fall and winter approaches, many models indicate an increasing chance for El Ni?o. Therefore, the forecaster consensus hedges in the direction of El Ni?o as the winter approaches, but given the considerable uncertainty in ENSO forecasts made at this time of year, the probabilities for El Ni?o are below 50%. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored through September-November 2018, with the possibility of El Ni?o nearing 50% by Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 . . . . ."

;) . . . . . So continues the El Ni?o or a La Ni?a soap opera for 2018 with every hope for a brand new season of foolishness for 2018-19!! . . . .  ;D

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]