GULP!! A La Ni?a Watch!?!??

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Many of us in the western half of the United States gladly welcomed an El Ni?o event expected this winter.  For better or worse, this winter really didn't resemble a typical El Ni?o pattern.  For example, southern California didn't get the heavy rains normally generated by El Ni?o.

So it is definitely with mixed emotions that I read a La Ni?a Watch has been issued for the second half of 2016:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

Here is the most important paragraph from the announcement:

Nearly all models predict further weakening of El Ni?o, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during late spring or early summer 2016 (Fig. 6). Then, the chance of La Ni?a increases during the late summer or early fall. The official forecast is consistent with the model forecasts, also supported by a historical tendency for La Ni?a to follow strong El Ni?o events. A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, with an increasing chance of La Ni?a during the second half of the year (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

The traditional thinking was that a La Ni?a event increased the drought conditions in the western United States.  However two of the wettest years observed at my weather station were La Ni?a years.

So what does the future hold?   Anybody got a working crystal ball . . . . . 

Oh well, . . . . Edouard

[Blicj11]

Thanks for posting this and sharing your thoughts. Perhaps if we wait until May 11, when the National Weather Service will begin forecasting in sentence case rather than ALL CAPS, they will give us a clearer picture of what might happen. 

Here in Utah we had 3 inches of snow today, containing almost 1/3 of an inch of water. Keep it coming.

[dfw_pilot]

Lovely photo.

[elagache]

Dear Blick, dfw, and WeatherCat dreamers of crystal balls,

Thanks for posting this and sharing your thoughts. Perhaps if we wait until May 11, when the National Weather Service will begin forecasting in sentence case rather than ALL CAPS, they will give us a clearer picture of what might happen. 

Using lower case might be more polite, but alas I have little hope of greater climate forecasting wisdom.

Here in Utah we had 3 inches of snow today, containing almost 1/3 of an inch of water. Keep it coming.

Thanks for the beautiful photo!  I don't know if this is the result of the storm we had earlier this week or not.  At the moment we aren't expecting any rain until sometime next week at the earliest.  On the other hand, we are planning our monthly Costco run on Wednesday.  So far we haven't been rained on when going to Costco, but it would seem to be just what Murphy's law would be waiting for.

Stay tuned!  Edouard

[Blicj11]

Costco run = good

[HantaYo]

La Nina, not sure i am ready for that     Perhaps because El Nino was confused and sent most of the moisture north La Nina will be confused as well and send moisture to the south?   The weather Gods are acting kinda strange lately    Perhaps a little too much CO2 is clouding their thinking?

Finally a decent spring storm with 20" of snow and it is still snowing

[elagache]

Dear HantaYo and WeatherCat climate watchers.

La Nina, not sure i am ready for that    

You ain't kidding.  That is a very scary thought for me too.

Perhaps because El Nino was confused and sent most of the moisture north La Nina will be confused as well and send moisture to the south?   The weather Gods are acting kinda strange lately    Perhaps a little too much CO2 is clouding their thinking?

I hate to say it, but I'm getting that uncomfortable feeling that the "C-C" phrase (climate change) is unfolding before our eyes.  If true we are indeed past the tipping point and we need to stop hoping we can put the genie back in the bottle and decide how on earth we are going to cope with this. . . .

Finally a decent spring storm with 20" of snow and it is still snowing

Glad you got some relief.  There is talk of more rain at the end of next week so we'll see. 

Thanks for the pretty pictures.  It is on the warm side around here so photos of snow was especially welcome!

Cheers, Edouard 

[Jeffrey Hickey]

Hi All:

First day here. Just upgraded to WeatherCat from Lightsoft.

I live in a rain zone, and also, the only part of Marin County that is entirely dependent on our own local spring water from the hills above. We've been well under normal five straight years, but this year, we are currently at 104% of our annual goal of 40 inches. We're at 41.80 right now with more on the horizon. So while this year has not been like other El Nino years here (the big ones have been 60-70 inches, this year has completely filled our local water supplies. So I cannot complain.

Regarding La Nina, like one of the other posters, two of our largest rain years were during La Nina: 55.78 inches and 49.42, respectively. Both of those years, the cut-off point for rain seemed to be somewhere between Santa Cruz and San Luis Obispo.

So I'm hopeful for another decent rain year. As for climate change, my stats show a rise in temps in our area over the last three years that is fairly staggering. Monthly temps have risen 3-4 degrees consistently over previous years, and the last two years have been the warmest on record here. I've been keeping track of this for almost 20 years here.

Anyway, nice to be here. Look forward to chatting again.

Jeff
Inverness, CA

[elagache]

Hi Jeff and WeatherCat west coast drought monitors,

I live in a rain zone, and also, the only part of Marin County that is entirely dependent on our own local spring water from the hills above. We've been well under normal five straight years, but this year, we are currently at 104% of our annual goal of 40 inches. We're at 41.80 right now with more on the horizon. So while this year has not been like other El Nino years here (the big ones have been 60-70 inches, this year has completely filled our local water supplies. So I cannot complain.

Glad you are back in business as far as your water supply.  It does feel sadly that Californians aren't willing to make changes so that we can have a stable water supply given what seems to be genuine changes the weather processes we have counted upon for water.

So I'm hopeful for another decent rain year. As for climate change, my stats show a rise in temps in our area over the last three years that is fairly staggering. Monthly temps have risen 3-4 degrees consistently over previous years, and the last two years have been the warmest on record here. I've been keeping track of this for almost 20 years here.

I haven't looked carefully at my records in part because they only go back 6 years, but I sure feel like there has been a dramatic change in the local climate.  The big surprise I'm noticing is the dramatic decrease in fog coming in from the Pacific.  When I was a kid, there was fog most nights during the summer.  Now there are many days without any fog.  The summers don't appear to be warmer in the way you would expect.  The sea-breezes also appear to have changed so that we get significant periods of what appears to me to be cooler than normal weather during the summer.  What has been steady for the past two years is higher than normal sea surface temperatures.  As a result, the overnight lows don't go down as far as they used to.  So heatwaves are that much more unbearable. 

I've started to worry that the obsession with atmospheric temperature is something of a red-herring.  Greenhouse gases are trapping solar radiation, but that excess energy doesn't always make itself manifest simply and purely as kinetic energy of the atmosphere.  If that energy ends causing other changes like increased sea surface temperature, these effects will be overlooked.  Storms becoming more energetic might also be tapping into this increased pool of kinetic energy.

The thermodynamics of temperature are easily understood when you have a pressure vessel in a laboratory.  The thermodynamics of the entire atmosphere - well, that clearly isn't so well understood as the limitations our forecast models sadly demonstrate.

Cheers, Edouard

[Jeffrey Hickey]

Hi Elagache:

I hear you regarding other Californians. I've lived through droughts before, and know all the tricks, but am amazed more has still not been done to fix the infrastructure issues. Plus, the entire disparity between water in the north and water in the south has never been adequately resolved.

Here in little Inverness, however, we managed five straight drought years in part because our water comes from springs, which doles out water differently than reservoirs. Last fall, before the rains began, but after five straight well below normal years, our own spring was still pumping out over 100 gallons a day (It is currently going at over 100 gallons an hour). So we found ways to manage, when to water, when to flush, etc. We grew what we wanted, and our efforts to ration became a non-issue. We had enough water.

Though this drought is very real and ongoing, I suspect a lot more could be done with less, if people were willing to learn.

[HantaYo]

Glad you got some relief.  There is talk of more rain at the end of next week so we'll see. 

Thanks for the pretty pictures.  It is on the warm side around here so photos of snow was especially welcome!

Ended up with 24.4" of snow with 1.51" of water content.  Storm 2 started last night.  So far 6.3" of new snow since last night 

The Grand Junction, Colorado NWS studied 100 years of records for portions of western Colorado and eastern Utah.  Interesting precipitation increased .45"/year in the study area.  For temperature, 

Specifically, maximum temperatures have risen 0.4 degrees Fahrenheit and minimum temperatures have risen 1.1 degrees Fahrenheit

.  I have read elsewhere, the minimum temperatures are increasing the most .

[elagache]

Dear Jeff, HantaYo, and WeatherCat drought watchers,

I hear you regarding other Californians. I've lived through droughts before, and know all the tricks, but am amazed more has still not been done to fix the infrastructure issues. Plus, the entire disparity between water in the north and water in the south has never been adequately resolved.

Sadly, you've hit the nail on the head.  The problems have been understood since the 1976-77 drought.  Yet essentially nothing has been done and the population has been allowed to grow by leaps and bounds.  Clearly politicians have gotten very good at being elected and we have allowed them to specialize in that instead of leadership.

Though this drought is very real and ongoing, I suspect a lot more could be done with less, if people were willing to learn.

People should try to save water, there is new technology that helps a lot.  However, there is a very harsh line between being more efficient and having your quality of life compromised because incompetent planning.  People who grew up in California shouldn't be punished over and while the state is invaded by newcomers who neither know safe water effectively nor vote for the infrastructure that should have been in place to allow them to move to the state in the first place.

I can't pretend otherwise, I'm extremely angry at the political propaganda that makes saving water into a patriotic virtue akin to the World War II home front.  There is no virtue in ripping out all your plants and replacing them with rocks - it will make global warming a little worse.  We can't "win the war" against insufficient water supplies.  By being suckered by our political leaders, we simply make the problem worse and defer the changes that are absolutely necessary to avoid extreme water shortages that could leave the southland for example at the edge of riots.

For temperature,  I have read elsewhere, the minimum temperatures are increasing the most.

My big worry is the assumption we have not exceeded the "tipping point" of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.  I don't have the feeling we have sufficient understanding of the climate to know whether or not we have exceeded this level.  Academics are clearly spending a lot of money on climate research, but I've gotten a PhD and know what the academia looks like on the inside.  If the future of the human race depends on academics getting the answers 100% correct . . . . well, our chances are really, really slim . . . . 

Oh well, Edouard

[xairbusdriver]

If the future of the human race depends on academics getting the answers 100% correct...

Hopefully, not all 'weather scientists' are 'academics'. Unfortunately, it often takes 'scientists' (academic or not) an extremely long time to reach consensus, much less "100%" agreement. "Climate" appears to be the most complicated phenomena ever studied. Certainly one with the most long-term, wide-spread and life-treatening consequences, although nuclear weapons are close...

[elagache]

Dear X-Air and WeatherCat academic "outsiders,"

Hopefully, not all 'weather scientists' are 'academics'. Unfortunately, it often takes 'scientists' (academic or not) an extremely long time to reach consensus, much less "100%" agreement. "Climate" appears to be the most complicated phenomena ever studied. Certainly one with the most long-term, wide-spread and life-treatening consequences, although nuclear weapons are close...

You are correct, not all climate research is happening in universities.  Alas, it is clear from the papers that are referenced from time to time that a lot of climate research is being done in university settings.

That is why my insider's sense of the situation leaves me very nervous.  Academics are a lot like lawyers.  You may have heard the joke:

. . . One lawyer in a small town will starve to death, but two lawyers can make a pretty good living! . . . 

Academics claim to be working together to provide a unified picture, but nothing could be farther from the truth.  Academia is an extremely competitive environment and even within the same university, faculty will be competing with one another for resources and prestige.

In a situation like this, there is no reward for trying to come together to clearly identify a complete body of knowledge.  Instead, climate change has been described by small studies that remain focused on a topic small enough that a research team can actually handle it.  It isn't surprising that there are lots of studies attempting to measure the temperature of particular locations or the melting of parts of the arctic or antarctic.

Climate change most definitely isn't being tackled in a "race to the moon" fashion.  Perhaps that's just as well, because getting to the moon was mostly a matter of engineering - not science.  When we have tried to apply that sort of massive effort to say curing cancer, the result haven't been anywhere as impressive.

Still the big question remains: "what is the point of no return in greenhouse gas emissions and what would be the indications that the climate cannot return to its previous state no matter what we do?"  If we don't know the answer to that question, we are stuck trying to devote resources without a clear objective and that can only waste resources during hard economic times.

Edouard

[xairbusdriver]

Still the big question remains: "what is the point of no return in greenhouse gas emissions and what would be the indications that the climate cannot return to its previous state no matter what we do?"

I think that question has one huge and unsolvable variable that is rarely included in any of the computer models: The heat generated by the politicians!