Author Topic: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Spring 2018  (Read 440 times)

elagache

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NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Spring 2018
« on: April 02, 2018, 11:22:17 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Spring has officially sprung and here is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for Spring.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for April:



There is an expectation of savage cold centered around the Great Lakes while the West is expected to warm up.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for April through June:



This outlook is even more pessimistic than last month.  Thus, Caveat Emptor is appropriate. 

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for April:



This graph has been changing dramatically in the past week.  Last week it had most of the West much below rainfall.  So perhaps this too should be taken with a grain of salt especially with "Atmospheric Rivers" back in the forecast for the Pacific coast.

Here is the equivalent graph for April to June:



This graph is also similar to last month's although the extremes are shifted over a bit.  The drought is more focused on the West while the above normal rains would be further to the East.

Here are drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for April:



It shows that the droughts in the South have indeed mostly ended.  It also indicates that the rains of March were sufficient to prevent drought from starting from the Sacramento delta and parts North.  The one exception is a patch of Southeast Oregon which is supposedly going to see an improving drought situation.

Here is the equivalent 3 month outlook:



The 3 month outlook has drought holding steady in the Southwestern part of the United States and adds drought forming in the Southeast.  Oddly drought in Southeastern Oregon returns. Drought the Dakotas is supposed to improve but apparently very slowly.

It appears that these forecasts may be placing a misguided confidence in the stability of climatology.  The shorter-term outlooks paint a different picture that could overturn what has been forecast at the start of the month.  Only time will tell.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

xairbusdriver

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Re: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Spring 2018
« Reply #1 on: April 03, 2018, 01:12:39 AM »
Indeed, the temp forecast for the middle of the country (Great Lakes south through the Mississippi Valley are not looking favorable. The next week+ much cooler, but the next 3 months a lot warmer. That may start producing convective storms sooner and those are too often damaging; wind/hail can damage houses/cars, but it is also horrible on crops.

OTOH, I think the forecasters lament is that anytime they have a 50-50 chance they get it wrong 90% of the time! [lol]

elagache

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Temp forecasts not very reliable. (Re: NWS - CPC forecasts - Spring 2018)
« Reply #2 on: April 03, 2018, 11:00:20 PM »
Dear X-Air and WeatherCat climate watchers,

Indeed, the temp forecast for the middle of the country (Great Lakes south through the Mississippi Valley are not looking favorable. The next week+ much cooler, but the next 3 months a lot warmer. That may start producing convective storms sooner and those are too often damaging; wind/hail can damage houses/cars, but it is also horrible on crops.

The potential damage could be real, but I've never seen these 3 month forecasts as particularly reliable.  If you look back through the years, these forecasts are more often than not, hotter than normal for most of the country.  That definitely isn't happening in California and as far as I can tell it isn't nearly extreme as they forecasting.  I'm starting to suspect that there is a flaw in the way greenhouse gases are being modeled.  There appears to be simple-minded assumption that greenhouse gases simply increase temperatures in a linear fashion.  Judging from the extremes of weather we are experiencing lately, greenhouse gases may be doing all sort of things that aren't expected and that's why the mostly above normal temperature forecasts aren't panning out.

OTOH, I think the forecasters lament is that anytime they have a 50-50 chance they get it wrong 90% of the time! [lol]

 [wink] . . . . . Look with the luck we're having with forecasters, even it if shouldn't be possible to fail 200% of the time, somehow they'd figure out how to do it! . . . . . .  lol(1)

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]

xairbusdriver

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Re: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Spring 2018
« Reply #3 on: April 03, 2018, 11:41:42 PM »
Speaking of convective activity: Tornado Watch until early tonight

Blicj11

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Re: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Spring 2018
« Reply #4 on: April 06, 2018, 08:40:04 AM »
I’m in Southern California for 10 days and have been surprisingly chlled whilst here. Need to get back to the mountains so I can warm up.
Blick


elagache

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May's outlook (Re: NWS - CPC forecasts - Spring 2018)
« Reply #5 on: May 01, 2018, 11:28:08 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

It is May-1 and here is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for Spring.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for May:



We are back to a everything is warmer than normal sort of monthly forecast.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for May through July:



This forecast is similar to the one month forecast.  We'll just have to see. 

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for May:



It is forecasting below normal rain in the Pacific Northwest and parts of the South, while forecasting above average for areas in the center of the country especially Texas.  This could be bad news as this sort of forecast has come to pass. 

Here is the equivalent graph for May to July:



In this case the below normal rains expands in the Pacific Northwest while parts of the East see above normal rain.

Here are drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for May:



It shows that the Southwest is seriously impacted as well as parts of Oregon.

Here is the equivalent 3 month outlook:



The 3 month outlook has drought holding steady in the Southwestern part of the United States but suggests some relief in Texas and nearby regions.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

Blicj11

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Re: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Spring 2018
« Reply #6 on: May 02, 2018, 11:41:19 PM »
Thanks for posting. This will be quite the summer, one way or the other, for the western U.S.
Blick


elagache

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June's outlook (Re: NWS - CPC forecasts - Spring 2018)
« Reply #7 on: June 01, 2018, 11:47:51 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

It is June-1 and here is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for Spring.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for June:



The forecast is continuing the warmer than normal prediction.  The areas not explicitly to be above normal have an equal chance of anything, meaning they still could also be above normal.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for June through August:



This forecast is similar to the one month forecast.  We'll just have to see. 

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for June:



It is forecasting below normal rain in an an odd swath of the country, but once more including the Pacific Northwest.  the Atlantic seaboard is expected to be above normal and an odd patch between Arizona and New Mexico.   This should be an expectation of higher than normal monsoonal activity.

Here is the equivalent graph for June to August:



In this case the Pacific Northwest continues to suffer, while parts of the East see above normal rain.  Also the monsoonal benefit moves north.

Here are drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for June:



It shows that the Southwest is seriously impacted as well as parts of Oregon.

Here is the equivalent 3 month outlook:



The 3 month outlook has drought holding steady in the Southwestern part of the United States but suggests some relief in Texas and nearby regions.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

Blicj11

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Re: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Spring 2018
« Reply #8 on: June 02, 2018, 01:42:21 AM »
Dry dry dry.
Blick


xairbusdriver

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Re: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Spring 2018
« Reply #9 on: June 02, 2018, 02:15:06 AM »
And don't forget warm to hot...