Author Topic: 2016-17 La Niña event had ended.  (Read 297 times)

elagache

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2016-17 La Niña event had ended.
« on: February 14, 2017, 11:06:44 PM »
Dear WeatherCat global climate watchers,

Without much fanfare, the Final La Niña Advisory was issued on February 9th:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

To quote from the discussion:

Quote
Most models predict the continuation of ENSO-neutral (3-month average Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and 0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere summer [Fig. 6]. However, a few dynamical model forecasts, including the NCEP CFSv2, anticipate an onset of El Niño as soon as the Northern Hemisphere spring (March-May 2017). Because of typically high uncertainty in forecasts made at this time of the year for the upcoming spring and summer, and the lingering La Niña-like tropical convection patterns, the forecaster consensus favors ENSO-neutral during the spring with a ~60% chance. Thereafter, there are increasing odds for El Niño toward the second half of 2017 (~50% chance in September-November).

If these forecasts are correct, we might go from a La Niña winter to an El Niño winter in 2017-18.  Considering that this year is anything but a "typical" La Niña winter - what this might mean is . . . . . .anybody's guess . . . . .

Oh well, . . . . . Edouard

Blicj11

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Re: 2016-17 La Niña event had ended.
« Reply #1 on: February 15, 2017, 12:19:46 AM »
If these forecasts are correct, we might go from a La Niña winter to an El Niño winter in 2017-18.  Considering that this year is anything but a "typical" La Niña winter - what this might mean is . . . . . .anybody's guess . . . . .

Amen!!
Blick