EuroWx anyone?

[HantaYo]

Received a promotional email for a free 7 day trial of EuroWx.com.  The email was sent on Monday with the promise of a MAJOR snow storm along the east coast this weekend.  Well, their model has delivered    Unfortunately, I am not qualified to for the free trial, email already has an account with them.

Any thoughts on the service?  I am always looking for a good crystal ball.

[elagache]

Dear Jeff and WeatherCat seekers of weather-related crystal balls,

Received a promotional email for a free 7 day trial of EuroWx.com.

We had a discussion about this service when it first launched.

http://athena.trixology.com/index.php?topic=940.msg8277#msg8277

It is expensive and it requires that you be able to read the output of the computer model in a way I don't have the skills to do.  I don't know how well your local office of the National Weather Service does the discussions, but I get what I need out of that.  At least the Monterey office frequently states which models are forecasting what.  In addition, I've come to understand how the professional forecasts make sense of these models.  They aren't good enough to be trusted literally.  Instead the professional look for two things: consistency across the models and the trends between model runs.  Given that this is their strategy, I don't think it is all that helpful to have access to just one model.  The European model does seem to do a better job than the American one, but it is wrong frequently as well.

Perhaps we should leave the business of peering into these crystal ball to the guys who make a living at it.

Cheers, Edouard

[xairbusdriver]

Perhaps we should leave the business of peering into these crystal ball(s) to the guys who make a living at it.

Unless they are paid by the "news" suppliers! I think those "professionals" are in cahoots with the grocery stores...

But the real weathermen (NWS?) have real problems with snow forecasts, at least in areas like mine where it is a fairly rare occurrence. We tend to have fairly narrow 'bands' of snow rather than large, general areas. That makes it doubly hard to forecast snow in any particular place, especially a place as 'small' as even a county (~785 square miles <Shelby Cty, TN>). Depending on the winds, those snow bands could completely miss our county but dump several inches a few miles either side of us. On top of that, we seldom have temps below freezing at ground level and often end up with drizzle or sleet.

Genrally, I don't worry much about snow forecasts here. They are usually overly cautious. However, I do worry when they tell us "No chance of snow."  That's when I make a run to the stores!

[HantaYo]

We had a discussion about this service when it first launched.

http://athena.trixology.com/index.php?topic=940.msg8277#msg8277

That must be where my EuroWx account got created.  I vaguely remember this.

It is expensive and it requires that you be able to read the output of the computer model in a way I don't have the skills to do.  I don't know how well your local office of the National Weather Service does the discussions, but I get what I need out of that.  At least the Monterey office frequently states which models are forecasting what. 

I am always finding the local weather service discussions lacking.  In general, they vaguely refer to the models especially if they are agreeing.  The national weather medias tend to just focus on the Eastern states- I refer to the Weather Channel as the EASTERN Weather Channel.  As is the case with the current storm system out east, Eastern Weather just gets all the hype and news and coverage.

But the real weathermen (NWS?) have real problems with snow forecasts, at least in areas like mine where it is a fairly rare occurrence. We tend to have fairly narrow 'bands' of snow rather than large, general areas. That makes it doubly hard to forecast snow in any particular place, especially a place as 'small' as even a county (~785 square miles <Shelby Cty, TN>). Depending on the winds, those snow bands could completely miss our county but dump several inches a few miles either side of us. On top of that, we seldom have temps below freezing at ground level and often end up with drizzle or sleet.

Same here.  Seldom does the NWS get our significant snow events forecasted correctly.  A lot of time the forecast is for a 1" or 2" snow total and we end up with 10" to 20".  I believe the terrain and how it interacts with the winds must be hard to predict here.  Additionally, elevation wise, we are right at the significant snow line between the valley and the mountains (the upper foothills).  Low pressure systems have to set up perfectly to allow the moisture flow through the canyons and mountains into central Colorado.  I love maps and the NWS information just leaves me wanting more.

[elagache]

Dear Jeff, X-Air, and WeatherCat weather-related crystal ball seekers,

I am always finding the local weather service discussions lacking.  In general, they vaguely refer to the models especially if they are agreeing..

Sorry to hear that.  It might be the case that the best forecasters are sent to the areas with the greatest population and influence.  It would make sense that even the National Weather Service would send their best people to the locations where the forecasts will effect the most people and institutions.  So the crews manning the distant outposts aren't as skilled and are probably even doing some "on the job training."   I suppose you indeed have to make a choice to either live with more uncertainty to make the effort to learn enough so you can make decent forecasts from direct information like forecast models.

Cheers, Edouard

[Blicj11]

I have found the most accurate forecasts for my area are those extrapolated by WeatherUnderground based on my PWS. This has not always been the case, but for the last 6 months, the WU forecast adjusted for my weather station has been far more accurate than the NWS forecast at the nearest airport. Granted, I live more than 2,000 feet higher than the airport, but even NOAA's adjusted forecast for my latitude and longitude is way less accurate that what WU is generating these days.

Speaking of WU, does anyone know if IBM's purchase of most of the assets of The Weather Channel included WU?

[HantaYo]

I have found the most accurate forecasts for my area are those extrapolated by WeatherUnderground based on my PWS. This has not always been the case, but for the last 6 months, the WU forecast adjusted for my weather station has been far more accurate than the NWS forecast at the nearest airport. Granted, I live more than 2,000 feet higher than the airport, but even NOAA's adjusted forecast for my latitude and longitude is way less accurate that what WU is generating these days.

Hmmm,  I think you are similar to me with elevation throwing a monkey wrench into accurate forecasts.  Maybe something to investigate.  I am in the foothills right in the transition zone between valley snow and mountain snow zones.

Speaking of WU, does anyone know if IBM's purchase of most of the assets of The Weather Channel included WU?

I have not seen any word on this.

[Bull Winkus]

IBM has acquired The Weather Company?s B2B, mobile and cloud-based web-properties, weather.com, Weather Underground, The Weather Company brand and WSI, its global business-to-business brand.

Thanks for reminding me, Blick. I'd completely forgotten about that. Here's the link. There's a video to watch, too.

 

[Felix]

I have found the most accurate forecasts for my area are those extrapolated by WeatherUnderground based on my PWS.

That's been my experience as well. In areas where several PWSs upload to WU, it's almost like having a local mesonet; albeit operated at the amateur level, and WU crunches the data to provide a forecast which historically I've found is more accurate than selecting the NWS setting.

[Bull Winkus]

That's been my impression, too. WU's forecast does a very good job. I just can't seem to convince anyone to give up whatever they are used to, which is usually an aggregated forecast for the whole region, and stick with the more specific forecast of my WU site.