Weather > General Weather Discussion
A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?
elagache:
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,
This week the experts on such things made their latest pronouncement on the El Ni?o - La Ni?a situation. The El Ni?o Watch remains in effect as you can read here:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
The key points are as follows: "The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict El Ni?o to form during the fall and continue through the winter. The official forecast favors the formation of a weak El Ni?o, consistent with the recent strengthening of westerly wind anomalies and positive temperature trends in the surface and subsurface ocean. In summary, El Ni?o is favored to form in the next couple of months and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (70-75% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period)."
Unfortunately exactly what this means for us mere inhabitants of planet Earth remains very much less clear.
Such are da' conditions that prevail, . . . . .
Cheers, Edouard
Blicj11:
Here in the mountains of Northern Utah we have received an unprecedented 4.85 inches of precipitation since October 1. This is 4 times the monthly average and enough to reduce our area one status level in drought severity. Sure would be nice if this kept up although now nothing of the sort in the forecast.
elagache:
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,
The latest update on El Ni?o supplied by "da' usual suspects" can be found in its usual haunt:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
The headline says it all: "El Ni?o is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (~80% chance) and into spring (55-60% chance)."
Check into other breaking news on this forum for what this exactly might mean - or not mean! :o
Cheers, Edouard [cheers1]
Blicj11:
It would be most welcome if it turns out to send precipitation our way.
elagache:
Dear WeatherCat viewers of the El Ni?o and La Ni?a soap opera,
There is yet another proclamation from "da' usual suspects" regarding El Ni?o:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
The headline says it all: "El Ni?o is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (~65% chance)."
What does it mean for us mere mortals? . . . . ;) Besides the likelihood that our tax dollars are paying for the employment of "da' usual suspects," hard conclusions remain difficult to come by! . . . . ??? . . . lol(1)
Cheers, Edouard [cheers1]
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