Trixology

Weather => General Weather Discussion => Topic started by: elagache on October 17, 2014, 10:30:17 PM

Title: NOAA 2014-15 United States winter outlook.
Post by: elagache on October 17, 2014, 10:30:17 PM

Dear WeatherCat residences of the USofA (and interested onlookers) . . .

For whatever reason, the National Weather Service highlighted the NOAA United States winter outlook for 2014-15.  You can read the entire article here:

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2014/20141016_winteroutlook.html (http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2014/20141016_winteroutlook.html)

Since this includes another set of forecasts I was anxious to once more "squirrel them away" so that we can see how accurate these forecasts turn out to be.  So here are the key graphics once more saved on my own web server so that nobody can "erase the evidence."  First here is the temperature outlook for this winter:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NOAA_Winter_outlook_2014/Winter_2014_temp_outlook_small.jpg)
http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NOAA_Winter_outlook_2014/Winter_2014_temp_outlook_large.jpg (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NOAA_Winter_outlook_2014/Winter_2014_temp_outlook_large.jpg)

These are large graphics so I've scaled them down for easy viewing on the forum and provided a link so that you can look at the details image on your own.

Here is the other important matter for most of us - precipitation:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NOAA_Winter_outlook_2014/Winter_2014_precip_outlook_small.jpg)
http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NOAA_Winter_outlook_2014/Winter_2014_precip_outlook_large.jpg (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NOAA_Winter_outlook_2014/Winter_2014_precip_outlook_large.jpg)

So you'all can either cheer or moan depending on whether this is good or bad news for you.  Definitely do read the associated article as there is additional information.  For example, this forecast explicitly predicts that the drought in California will continue because the rainfall expected is only normal.  That should trigger some government action and may increase the chances that Proposition #1 on the California ballot will pass.  That proposition finally proposes the construction of some additional reservoirs, although arguably - too little too late.

Of course, this outlook is just that - a climatological forecast.  We'll see if this forecast does better than the Climate Predication Center forecasts I've also been monitoring.

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]