Weather > General Weather Discussion
A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?
Blicj11:
--- Quote from: elagache on October 16, 2017, 11:38:35 PM ---The forecast has since downgraded the potential rainfall, but those of you in harm's way of atmospheric rivers might want to start preparing . . . . . just in case! . . .
--- End quote ---
I am preparing the ark.
elagache:
Dear "Noah" ;) and WeatherCat "survivalists," . . . . . [biggrin]
--- Quote from: Blicj11 on October 17, 2017, 07:00:22 PM ---I am preparing the ark.
--- End quote ---
[wink] . . . Well if you are going to all that trouble, perhaps you should "supersize" the Biblical dimensions for your ark, since it seems that we have identified quite a few more species than the Old Testament would have suggested. You also probably need all your binary math skills you can muster so you count all those animals one and then two to make sure you have a pair!! . . . . lol(1)
Cheers, Edouard [biggrin]
elagache:
Dear WeatherCat climate observers,
Those folks at the Climate Predication Center and and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society have made if official. We are now under a La Ni?a Advisory:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
The summary reads: "La Ni?a conditions are predicted to continue (~65-75% chance) at least through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18. "
The key points of discussion can be summarized as follows:
" During October, weak La Ni?a conditions emerged as reflected by below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
. . . .
For the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18, a weak La Ni?a is favored in the model averages of the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] and also in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) [Fig. 7]. The consensus of forecasters is for the event to continue through approximately February-April 2018. In summary, La Ni?a conditions are predicted to continue (~65-75% chance) at least through the Northern Hemisphere winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period). "
So for all of you affected by La Ni?a events, the next question is to figure out exactly what do La Ni?a event actually does to your location. There was a time when La Ni?as caused drought in the Western United States. However, between the fact that last year as also a La Ni?a and the current forecast for the rest of November, I decided to clean the storm drains this afternoon. Alas, of course they needed more cleaning than I had hoped. When it comes to home maintenance, the work is never done . . . .
Oh well, . . . . . Edouard
elagache:
Dear WeatherCat climate observers,
Those folks at the Climate Predication Center and and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society have an update on the El Ni?o or La Ni?a situation:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
The summary reads: "La Ni?a is likely (exceeding ~80%) through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18, with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely during the mid-to-late spring."
The key points of discussion can be summarized as follows:
"La Ni?a strengthened during the past month, as indicated by an increasingly prominent pattern of below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean
. . . .
La Ni?a is predicted to persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18 by nearly all models in the IRI/CPC plume and in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME).
. . . .
La Ni?a is anticipated to affect temperature and precipitation across the United States during the upcoming months (the 3-month seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks will be updated on Thursday December 21st). The outlooks generally favor above-average temperatures and below-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, and below-average temperatures and above-median precipitation across the northern tier of the United States."
The expected effects of La Ni?a leave the center of the United States up for grabs. Last year there is no doubt that rainfall was much above average for the Northern 1/2 of the Western United States. Thus far, we are looking at drought conditions for all of the Western United States as far North as Washington state. Alas, La Ni?a is Spanish for "the little girl," so I suppose we can only expect this weather phenomena to be "fickle." . . . . . .
Oh well, . . . . . Edouard
Blicj11:
Thanks for the update Edouard.
It is snowing here as I type. Send more.
Navigation
[0] Message Index
[#] Next page
[*] Previous page
Go to full version