Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,
For some reason the latest El Ni?o or a La Ni?a report didn't get the CPC headlines until today even if it was issued January 10th. Nonetheless here it is for the curious:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtmlThe headlines remain the same: "El Ni?o is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (~65% chance). "
However the details are much more dicey all of a sudden. The reports are of neutral conditions. Here is an example:
ENSO-neutral continued during December 2018, despite widespread above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. In the last couple of weeks, all four Ni?o indices decreased, with the latest weekly values at +0.2?C in the Ni?o-1+2 region and near +0.7?C in the other regions [Fig. 2]. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180?-100?W) also weakened [Fig. 3],
That sounds like no El Ni?o after all. However the report goes on to say:
The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict a Ni?o3.4 index of +0.5?C or greater to continue through at least the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 [Fig. 6]. Regardless of the above-average SSTs, the atmospheric circulation over the tropical Pacific has not yet shown clear evidence of coupling to the ocean. The late winter and early spring tend to be the most favorable months for coupling, so forecasters still believe weak El Ni?o conditions will emerge shortly. However, given the timing and that a weak event is favored, significant global impacts are not anticipated during the remainder of winter, even if conditions were to form.
So whatever El Ni?o may form, it isn't expected to have any effect on your climate and whatever climate effects you are observing now are not due to El Ni?o.
Of source it is up to you decide if this is good news or bad!
Cheers, Edouard