Trixology

Weather => General Weather Discussion => Topic started by: xairbusdriver on June 13, 2019, 02:12:46 AM

Title: The long-awaited upgrade to the US weather forecast model is here
Post by: xairbusdriver on June 13, 2019, 02:12:46 AM
Mark your calendars! It?s been almost 40 years since the model got a new core. (https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/06/us-weather-forecasts-get-a-software-update/?comments=1) Scott K. Johnson, Ars Technica - 6/12/2019, 2:00 PM
Title: Re: The long-awaited upgrade to the US weather forecast model is here
Post by: Blicj11 on June 13, 2019, 03:59:57 PM
Only been out a day and some are already complaining. Regarding the new model, I say it's about time and I'm looking forward to drawing my own conclusions in the coming months.
Title: Re: The long-awaited upgrade to the US weather forecast model is here
Post by: xairbusdriver on June 13, 2019, 09:46:33 PM
Some interesting comments from "weather consumers" that indicate confusion between forecasts and actual weather events. Apparently, using "percentages" creates expectations that things (forecast events) will actually happen. Some people think a local thunderstorm, even one that is a dozen miles wide will create rain for the entire state or at least their entire county! [rolleyes2] To many, a "70% chance of rain" seems to mean it will rain for 70% of the day! [banghead] It's no wonder that lots of people can't understand the difference between climate and weather... :o
Title: Thanks. (Re: The long-awaited upgrade to the US weather forecast model is here)
Post by: elagache on June 13, 2019, 11:22:07 PM
Dear X-Air, Blick, and WeatherCat observers of forecast technology,

Quote from: xairbusdriver on June 13, 2019, 02:12:46 AM
Mark your calendars! It?s been almost 40 years since the model got a new core. (https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/06/us-weather-forecasts-get-a-software-update/?comments=1) Scott K. Johnson, Ars Technica - 6/12/2019, 2:00 PM

Thanks for the pointer.  It is interesting that the consensus view continues to hold that the European model does a better job.  In watching the forecasts, I've also come to take the European model more seriously if there is a conflict.

Quote from: xairbusdriver on June 13, 2019, 09:46:33 PM
Some interesting comments from "weather consumers" that indicate confusion between forecasts and actual weather events. Apparently, using "percentages" creates expectations that things (forecast events) will actually happen. Some people think a local thunderstorm, even one that is a dozen miles wide will create rain for the entire state or at least their entire county! [rolleyes2] To many, a "70% chance of rain" seems to mean it will rain for 70% of the day! [banghead] It's no wonder that lots of people can't understand the difference between climate and weather... :o

Sad but true.  Unfortunately, how weather statistics are supposed to be used isn't particularly well explained to the public.  I just made a quick search for such an explanation and failed.  Can anybody else find a reference that we could point someone to if needed?

In general, statistics is a very slippery subject that desperately few people understand. It isn't covered in high school and isn't required of all college graduates.  Yet many of the decisions the general public make today require some understanding of statistics - just how is the public supposed to do this?  ???

Indeed we live in "curious" times . . . . . . .

Cheers, Edouard
Title: Re: The long-awaited upgrade to the US weather forecast model is here
Post by: glenwood on August 03, 2019, 02:55:51 PM
Latest blog from Cliff Mass, professor of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Washington :   EPIC: The Last Chance for National Weather Service Weather Modeling to Regain Leadership?      https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/08/epic-last-chance-for-national-weather.html

Title: Thanks for sharing. (Re: the US weather forecast model)
Post by: elagache on August 03, 2019, 09:31:07 PM
Dear glenwood and WeatherCat observers of the weather forecast infrastructure,

Quote from: glenwood on August 03, 2019, 02:55:51 PM
Latest blog from Cliff Mass, professor of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Washington :   EPIC: The Last Chance for National Weather Service Weather Modeling to Regain Leadership?      https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/08/epic-last-chance-for-national-weather.html

Thanks for sharing!   [tup]  I can't say I wasn't expecting this but it is interesting that there might be a golden opportunity to put the United States back in the weather modeling game.

 [wink] . . . . . There was just one comment that "puzzled" me a bit.

Quote
Too many Federal agencies  or government-supported labs trying to do the same thing (NOAA/NWS, Air Force, NASA, Navy, NCAR)

What!?!?  You mean that the Air Force and the Navy don't cooperate on such things?  What about the Army? Don't they have their own weather forecasters?  Otherwise how can they plan for the Army Navy football match? . . . . .  (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/scarcasm.gif)

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: Re: The long-awaited upgrade to the US weather forecast model is here
Post by: Blicj11 on August 21, 2019, 03:15:10 PM
Quote from: glenwood on August 03, 2019, 02:55:51 PM
Latest blog from Cliff Mass, professor of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Washington :   EPIC: The Last Chance for National Weather Service Weather Modeling to Regain Leadership?      https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/08/epic-last-chance-for-national-weather.html

Very interesting read glenwood. Thank you for sharing.