Trixology

Weather => General Weather Discussion => Topic started by: elagache on July 15, 2017, 10:19:39 PM

Title: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?
Post by: elagache on July 15, 2017, 10:19:39 PM
Dear WeatherCat Climate watchers,

Mid-summer is the first opportunity for use to get some idea of what we might expect in terms of El Ni?o or La Ni?a effects on our upcoming winter.  Well the prognosticators have weighed and the answer is - neutral!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

As the synopsis reads:

ENSO-neutral is favored (~50 to 55% chance) into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18

So does that mean we might have a "normal" winter this year?  I suppose we could always hope (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/pray.gif) , but I sure wouldn't count on it! (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/eek-sign.gif)

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: La Ni?a watch? (Re: El Ni?o or La Ni?a? )
Post by: elagache on September 16, 2017, 10:46:26 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Earlier this summer, the Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWSand the International Research Institute for Climate and Society folks had predicted a neutral year with neither an El Ni?o or La Ni?a event.  Well things have changed and we are now under a La Ni?a watch.  Here is the report:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

Here is a quote for the most relevant bit:

Quote
A majority of the models in the IRI/CPC suite of Ni?o-3.4 predictions favor ENSO-neutral through the Northern Hemisphere 2017-18 winter [Fig. 6]. However, the most recent predictions from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) and the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) indicate the formation of La Ni?a as soon as the Northern Hemisphere fall 2017 [Fig. 7]. Forecasters favor these predictions in part because of the recent cooling of surface and sub-surface temperature anomalies, and also because of the higher degree of forecast skill at this time of year. In summary, there is an increasing chance (~55-60%) of La Ni?a during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

The past few La Ni?a events have caused atmospheric rivers to become more intense and has brought a lot of moisture to the Western United States.  For those who forgot, last year was a La Ni?a:

http://athena.trixology.com/index.php?topic=2221.msg22663#msg22663 (http://athena.trixology.com/index.php?topic=2221.msg22663#msg22663)

So we may be in for another wet winter.

We'll just have to wait and see . . . . . .

Cheers, Edouard
Title: Re: La Ni?a watch? (Re: El Ni?o or La Ni?a? )
Post by: Blicj11 on September 24, 2017, 06:41:00 AM
So we may be in for another wet winter.

Sign me up.
Title: Beware of what you wish for . . . . (Re: La Ni?a watch?)
Post by: elagache on September 24, 2017, 10:14:25 PM
Dear Blick and WeatherCat Western US drought flood? watchers?!?!??

So we may be in for another wet winter.

Sign me up.

I certainly don't want the drought to start up again, but the rains definitely did a lot of damage around here.  The roads have suffered a lot because of the extremes of the soil.  In the middle of the rains the ground swelled a great deal and now with the very hot and dry summer, the ground has contracted to another extreme.  California rode out last winter mostly in stride, but our luck might not hold out if we get battered by a series of atmospheric rivers again.

I sure wish moderation would once more return to "climatological fashion."

Grin and bear it!  Edouard
Title: La Ni?a watch for another month. (Re: El Ni?o or La Ni?a? )
Post by: elagache on October 16, 2017, 11:38:35 PM
Dear WeatherCat types affected by El Ni?o and/or La Ni?a,

The CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society have updated their El Ni?o /La Ni?a predictions and we continue to be under a La Ni?a watch.  Here is the full briefing:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The punch-line is: "La Ni?a conditions are favored (~55-65%) during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18."

This is further bolstered by the puzzling technical jargon to be found in the discussion for the first storm expected for this year on Thursday.  The offending sentence reads as follows (key text with my emphasis) :

"IVT progs are focusing on Thursday evening being the best shot for moderate rainfall (coverage has decreased, but a narrow band of values over 500 KG/m/s are now indicated)."

To those who forgot from last year - IVT stands for Integrated Water Vapor Transport and Kg/m/s is a measure of how much water vapor is being transported.  In other words, by decoding the technical jargon, it is clear that there was already the possibility for an atmospheric river event this early in October.  The forecast has since downgraded the potential rainfall, but those of you in harm's way of atmospheric rivers might want to start preparing . . . . . just in case! . . . (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/eek-sign.gif)

Cheers, Edouard
Title: Re: La Ni?a watch for another month. (Re: El Ni?o or La Ni?a? )
Post by: Blicj11 on October 17, 2017, 07:00:22 PM
The forecast has since downgraded the potential rainfall, but those of you in harm's way of atmospheric rivers might want to start preparing . . . . . just in case! . . . (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/eek-sign.gif)

I am preparing the ark.
Title: Is that why you are into computers? (Re: El Ni?o or La Ni?a? )
Post by: elagache on October 18, 2017, 12:31:49 AM
Dear "Noah"  ;) and WeatherCat "survivalists," . . . . .  [biggrin]

I am preparing the ark.

[wink] . . . Well if you are going to all that trouble, perhaps you should "supersize" the Biblical dimensions for your ark, since it seems that we have identified quite a few more species than the Old Testament would have suggested.  You also probably need all your binary math skills you can muster so you count all those animals one and then two to make sure you have a pair!! . . . .  lol(1)

Cheers, Edouard  [biggrin]
Title: It's official: a La Ni?a Advisory. (Re: El Ni?o or La Ni?a? )
Post by: elagache on November 13, 2017, 12:06:20 AM
Dear WeatherCat climate observers,

Those folks at the Climate Predication Center and and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society have made if official.  We are now under a La Ni?a Advisory:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The summary reads:  "La Ni?a conditions are predicted to continue (~65-75% chance) at least through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18. "

The key points of discussion can be summarized as follows:

" During October, weak La Ni?a conditions emerged as reflected by below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

. . . .

For the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18, a weak La Ni?a is favored in the model averages of the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] and also in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) [Fig. 7]. The consensus of forecasters is for the event to continue through approximately February-April 2018. In summary, La Ni?a conditions are predicted to continue (~65-75% chance) at least through the Northern Hemisphere winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period). "


So for all of you affected by La Ni?a events, the next question is to figure out exactly what do La Ni?a event actually does to your location.  There was a time when La Ni?as caused drought in the Western United States.  However, between the fact that last year as also a La Ni?a and the current forecast for the rest of November, I decided to clean the storm drains this afternoon.  Alas, of course they needed more cleaning than I had hoped. (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/sigh_bubble.gif)  When it comes to home maintenance, the work is never done . . . .

Oh well, . . . . . Edouard
Title: La Ni?a Advisory for another month (Re: El Ni?o or La Ni?a? )
Post by: elagache on December 20, 2017, 11:07:35 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate observers,

Those folks at the Climate Predication Center and and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society have an update on the El Ni?o or La Ni?a situation:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The summary reads:  "La Ni?a is likely (exceeding ~80%) through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18, with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely during the mid-to-late spring."

The key points of discussion can be summarized as follows:

"La Ni?a strengthened during the past month, as indicated by an increasingly prominent pattern of below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean

. . . .

La Ni?a is predicted to persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18 by nearly all models in the IRI/CPC plume and in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME).


. . . .

La Ni?a is anticipated to affect temperature and precipitation across the United States during the upcoming months (the 3-month seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks will be updated on Thursday December 21st). The outlooks generally favor above-average temperatures and below-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, and below-average temperatures and above-median precipitation across the northern tier of the United States."


The expected effects of La Ni?a leave the center of the United States up for grabs.  Last year there is no doubt that rainfall was much above average for the Northern 1/2 of the Western United States.  Thus far, we are looking at drought conditions for all of the Western United States as far North as Washington state.  Alas, La Ni?a is Spanish for "the little girl," (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Ni%C3%B1a)  so I suppose we can only expect this weather phenomena to be "fickle." . . . . . .

Oh well, . . . . . Edouard
Title: Re: A year without either an El Ni?o or a La Ni?a?
Post by: Blicj11 on December 21, 2017, 02:13:04 AM
Thanks for the update Edouard.

It is snowing here as I type. Send more.
Title: La Ni?a fading away. (Re: El Ni?o or a La Ni?a?)
Post by: elagache on February 24, 2018, 10:48:23 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

There is another report on this year's weak La Ni?a:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The La Ni?a Advisory continues, but the forecast is that this won't last for much longer.  Here is the synopsis: 

Quote
A transition from La Ni?a to ENSO-neutral is most likely during the Northern Hemisphere spring (~55% chance of ENSO-neutral during the March-May season).

Given how dry this Winter has been, perhaps that will allow for more normal precipitation during Spring.  We'll see . . . .

Cheers, Edouard
Title: La Ni?a not gone yet. (Re: El Ni?o or a La Ni?a?)
Post by: elagache on March 08, 2018, 11:28:19 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Today there was another report on La Ni?a from the the Climate Predication Center and and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The synopsis is very much like last month:

Quote
A transition from La Ni?a to ENSO-neutral is most likely (~55% chance) during the March-May season, with neutral conditions likely to continue into the second half of the year.


However, the alert status is still: La Ni?a Advisory and according to the observed data:

Quote
During February 2018, La Ni?a weakened, but was still reflected by below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1].

So the predictions remain the same, but only time will tell if this month will be the end of La Ni?a or not.

Stay tuned!

Cheers, Edouard
Title: La Ni?a still hanging around. (Re: El Ni?o or a La Ni?a?)
Post by: elagache on April 16, 2018, 11:29:11 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

There is an update to the El Ni?o or a La Ni?a forecast. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

As you may remember the sea surface temperatures were supposed to return to neutral in the March-May time frame.  Well, here we are in April and the latest report announces:

Quote
During March 2018, La Ni?a continued to weaken, but was still reflected by below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1].

Nonetheless, the forecasters are sticking to their guns:

Quote
Most models in the IRI/CPC plume predict La Ni?a will decay and return to ENSO-neutral during the current March-May season [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus similarly favors a transition to neutral, with a continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions through the summer 2018.

Beyond that, well there isn't nearly as much enthusiasm to predict the future:

Quote
Thereafter, there is considerable forecast uncertainty, in part due to the lower prediction skill for forecasts made at this time of year.


 ;) . . . . . So continues the El Ni?o or a La Ni?a soap opera for 2018! . . . .  ;D

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: Re: A year without either an El Ni?o or a La Ni?a?
Post by: xairbusdriver on April 17, 2018, 01:41:08 AM
"Nonetheless, the forecasters are sticking to their guns" How can you be "consistent" if you keep changing your mind(s)?! If they pict the right forecast, they are bound to be correct, someday! For me, if I have a chance to change my mind, I usually do it right before my current opinion is confirmed!! [banghead] cmu:-) [rolleyes2] [blush]
Title: La Ni?a finally sent packing, but . . . . (Re: El Ni?o or a La Ni?a?)
Post by: elagache on May 14, 2018, 11:20:28 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

The Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society have issued (to quote:) their "Final La Ni?a Advisory."

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The critical bit of data is (once more I quote:) "During April 2018, the tropical Pacific returned to ENSO-neutral, as indicated by mostly near-to- below average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) along the equator."

However, just when you thought you could relax because things were back to "normal," the discussion goes on to say: "The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict ENSO-neutral to continue at least through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2018. As the fall and winter approaches, many models indicate an increasing chance for El Ni?o. Therefore, the forecaster consensus hedges in the direction of El Ni?o as the winter approaches, but given the considerable uncertainty in ENSO forecasts made at this time of year, the probabilities for El Ni?o are below 50%. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored through September-November 2018, with the possibility of El Ni?o nearing 50% by Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 . . . . ."

;) . . . . . So continues the El Ni?o or a La Ni?a soap opera for 2018 with every hope for a brand new season of foolishness for 2018-19!! . . . .  ;D

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: Re: A year without either an El Ni?o or a La Ni?a?
Post by: xairbusdriver on May 15, 2018, 01:08:32 AM
I think the key word in that ?explanation? is hedges...
Title: Re: A year without either an El Ni?o or a La Ni?a?
Post by: Blicj11 on May 16, 2018, 01:19:32 AM
Their guess may be more scientific than mine, but mine is just as probable.
Title: Depends on da' coin! (Re: A year without either an El Ni?o or a La Ni?a? )
Post by: elagache on May 16, 2018, 10:04:46 PM
Dear Blick and WeatherCat gamblers on da' weather,

Their guess may be more scientific than mine, but mine is just as probable.

 [wink] . . . . Oh I dunno'  50% odds are simply a coin toss, but your odds are much better in a coin toss if you happen to sneak in a two-headed coin! . .  lol(1)

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: El Ni?o watch? (Re: El Ni?o or La Ni?a? )
Post by: elagache on July 07, 2018, 12:25:16 AM
Dear WeatherCat observers of El Ni?o and La Ni?a,

Just when you thought it was safe to turn your television back on - the El Ni?o La Ni?a soap opera is back!  The folks at the climate prediction center and friends have issued a El Ni?o watch on June 14th:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_jun2018/ensodisc.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_jun2018/ensodisc.shtml)

The punch line reads:

ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere summer 2018, with the chance for El Ni?o increasing to 50% during fall, and ~65% during winter 2018-19

The key text is as follows:

Quote
The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict ENSO-neutral to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2018, with El Ni?o most likely thereafter [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus favors the onset of El Ni?o during the Northern Hemisphere fall, which would then continue through winter. These forecasts are supported by the ongoing build-up of heat within the tropical Pacific Ocean. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere summer 2018, with the chance for El Ni?o increasing to 50% during fall, and ~65% during winter 2018-19 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

So what does this mean for us mere morals . . . . . . . who knows? (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/confused_do_no.gif)

Oh well, . . . . Edouard
Title: Re: A year without either an El Ni?o or a La Ni?a?
Post by: Blicj11 on July 07, 2018, 01:26:07 AM
Remember the old Saturday Night Live clips where Chris Farley translated Spanish into English for us?

"I am El Ni?o! All other tropical storms must bow before El Ni?o! ?Yo soy El Ni?o! For those of you who don't habla espa?ol, 'El Ni?o' is Spanish for ... 'the Ni?o'!"
Title: Sticking to their El Ni?o prediction (Re: El Ni?o or a La Ni?a?)
Post by: elagache on August 03, 2018, 12:31:54 AM
Dear viewers of the El Ni?o or a La Ni?a soap opera,

The July update didn't make any headlines so I missed it until now.  However the forecast continues to be for a El Ni?o event for this autumn and winter.  Here is the link:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_jul2018/ensodisc.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_jul2018/ensodisc.shtml)

The summary reads as follows: "ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere summer 2018, with the chance for El Ni?o increasing to about 65% during fall, and to about 70% during winter 2018-19"

Wikipedia has a list of regional impacts based on overall research:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o#Regional_impacts (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o#Regional_impacts)

According to the same Wikipedia article, the recent El Ni?o events are listed here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o#Occurrences (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o#Occurrences)

The last two are the end of 2009-10 and 2014-15.  My station went up in October 2009, so I don't have the 2009-10 winter.  The 2014-15 event was the worst drought episode recorded by my station.

On the other hand, according to Wikipedia the La Ni?a events are:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Ni%C3%B1a#Occurrences (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Ni%C3%B1a#Occurrences)

That includes most of 2010 and 2016-17 wet years.  That is consistent with the overall observation that La Ni?a events bring additional rainfall to Northern California:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Ni%C3%B1a#North_America (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Ni%C3%B1a#North_America)

It seems to me that at least for Northern California, El Ni?o now brings droughts while La Ni?a events seem to intensify atmospheric rivers.  So depending on where you are in the Western United States, this could be another tough and dry winter.

Oh well, . . . . . Edouard
Title: Re: Sticking to their El Ni?o prediction (Re: El Ni?o or a La Ni?a?)
Post by: Blicj11 on August 03, 2018, 04:51:30 AM
It seems to me that at least for Northern California, El Ni?o now brings droughts while La Ni?a events seem to intensify atmospheric rivers.  So depending on where you

Just the kind of news we do not need. I'd rather hear about the Buick.
Title: Continued El Ni?o watch (Re: El Ni?o or a La Ni?a?)
Post by: elagache on August 26, 2018, 10:14:15 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

I've been so busy that I haven't been on the Climate Prediction Center website much.  As a result, I missed the August 9th update on El Ni?o.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The synopsis makes the key points:  "There is ~60% chance of El Ni?o in the Northern Hemisphere fall 2018 (September-November), increasing to ~70% during winter 2018-19. "

What caught my attention is that El Ni?o is already being blamed for the quiet Atlantic hurricane season.  There is a NOAA press release lowering number of expected storms:

http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-forecasters-lower-atlantic-hurricane-season-prediction (http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-forecasters-lower-atlantic-hurricane-season-prediction)

We are almost at the end of August so it does look like the  Atlantic hurricane season will be much quieter than last year's.  It is obvious that these changes in Pacific ocean temperatures have a global effect.  So wherever you live, try to brace as best you can for whatever El Ni?o brings to your corner of da' planet.

Oh well, . . . . . . Edouard
Title: Re: A year without either an El Ni?o or a La Ni?a?
Post by: Blicj11 on August 27, 2018, 05:50:27 PM
Thanks for the update. Yesterday I drove through a corridor of the Utah wildfires. Amazing amount of acreage burned and lots of smoke. Many of these fires may burn until it snows. If it snows.
Title: With a suitable apocalyptic spin . . . . (Re: El Ni?o or a La Ni?a? )
Post by: elagache on August 27, 2018, 11:30:58 PM
Dear Blick and WeatherCat "will somebody stop the world so can get out!" types, .. . . .

. . . . . . Many of these fires may burn until it snows. If it snows.

 [wink] . . . . . . Well, it might snow when . . . . . hell freezes over! . . .  lol(1)

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: Continued El Ni?o watch (Re: El Ni?o or a La Ni?a?)
Post by: elagache on October 13, 2018, 10:23:42 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

This week the experts on such things made their latest pronouncement on the El Ni?o - La Ni?a situation.  The El Ni?o Watch remains in effect as you can read here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The key points are as follows:  "The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict El Ni?o to form during the fall and continue through the winter. The official forecast favors the formation of a weak El Ni?o, consistent with the recent strengthening of westerly wind anomalies and positive temperature trends in the surface and subsurface ocean. In summary, El Ni?o is favored to form in the next couple of months and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (70-75% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period)."

Unfortunately exactly what this means for us mere inhabitants of planet Earth remains very much less clear.

Such are da' conditions that prevail, . . . . .

Cheers, Edouard
Title: Re: A year without either an El Ni?o or a La Ni?a?
Post by: Blicj11 on October 13, 2018, 11:06:06 PM
Here in the mountains of Northern Utah we have received an unprecedented 4.85 inches of precipitation since October 1. This is 4 times the monthly average and enough to reduce our area one status level in drought severity. Sure would be nice if this kept up although now nothing of the sort in the forecast.
Title: Continued El Ni?o watch (Re: El Ni?o or a La Ni?a?)
Post by: elagache on November 17, 2018, 10:06:10 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

The latest update on El Ni?o supplied by "da' usual suspects" can be found in its usual haunt:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The headline says it all:  "El Ni?o is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (~80% chance) and into spring (55-60% chance)."

Check into other breaking news on this forum for what this exactly might mean - or not mean!  :o

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: Re: A year without either an El Ni?o or a La Ni?a?
Post by: Blicj11 on November 17, 2018, 11:00:38 PM
It would be most welcome if it turns out to send precipitation our way.
Title: El Ni?o hanging around through Spring. (Re: El Ni?o or a La Ni?a?)
Post by: elagache on January 18, 2019, 12:05:15 AM
Dear WeatherCat viewers of the El Ni?o and La Ni?a soap opera,

There is yet another proclamation from "da' usual suspects" regarding El Ni?o:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The headline says it all: "El Ni?o is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (~65% chance)."

What does it mean for us mere mortals? . . . .    ;)  Besides the likelihood that our tax dollars are paying for the employment of "da' usual suspects," hard conclusions remain difficult to come by! . . . .  ??? . . .  lol(1)

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: Re: El Ni?o hanging around through Spring. (Re: El Ni?o or a La Ni?a?)
Post by: Blicj11 on January 18, 2019, 03:42:17 PM
What does it mean for us mere mortals? . . . .    ;)  Besides the likelihood that our tax dollars are paying for the employment of "da' usual suspects," hard conclusions remain difficult to come by! . . . .  ??? . . .  lol(1)

I read the their diagnostic discussion and concluded that I didn't know any more after doing so than I did before I read it.
Title: Da' plot thickens . . . . (Re: El Ni?o or a La Ni?a?)
Post by: elagache on February 07, 2019, 01:03:24 AM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

For some reason the latest El Ni?o or a La Ni?a report didn't get the CPC headlines until today even if it was issued January 10th.  Nonetheless here it is for the curious:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The headlines remain the same:  "El Ni?o is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (~65% chance). "

However the details are much more dicey all of a sudden.  The reports are of neutral conditions.  Here is an example:

Quote
ENSO-neutral continued during December 2018, despite widespread above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. In the last couple of weeks, all four Ni?o indices decreased, with the latest weekly values at +0.2?C in the Ni?o-1+2 region and near +0.7?C in the other regions [Fig. 2]. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180?-100?W) also weakened [Fig. 3],

That sounds like no El Ni?o after all.  However the report goes on to say:

Quote
The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict a Ni?o3.4 index of +0.5?C or greater to continue through at least the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 [Fig. 6]. Regardless of the above-average SSTs, the atmospheric circulation over the tropical Pacific has not yet shown clear evidence of coupling to the ocean. The late winter and early spring tend to be the most favorable months for coupling, so forecasters still believe weak El Ni?o conditions will emerge shortly. However, given the timing and that a weak event is favored, significant global impacts are not anticipated during the remainder of winter, even if conditions were to form.

So whatever El Ni?o may form, it isn't expected to have any effect on your climate and whatever climate effects you are observing now are not due to El Ni?o.

Of source it is up to you decide if this is good news or bad!   ???

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: El Ni?o . . . IT'S BAACK!!! (Re: El Ni?o or a La Ni?a?)
Post by: elagache on February 14, 2019, 10:29:41 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

For Valentine's day we learn that we are under an El Ni?o Advisory.  All the details can be read here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The headline reads:  "Weak El Nino conditions are present and are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (~55% chance)"

Moreover the discussion includes the following observation:  "El Nino conditions formed during January 2019, based on the presence of above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean and corresponding changes in the overlying atmospheric circulation. "

So the weather you are presently observing may (or may not) have something to do with this weak El Ni?o.

So as usual - what you make of this is entirely your concern - on account of nobody is too terribly sure what this means anyway!  lol(1)

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: Re: A year without either an El Ni?o or a La Ni?a?
Post by: pbeaudet on February 14, 2019, 11:01:33 PM
 lol(1)

Thanks for the FYI.
Title: El Ni?o strengthening (Re: El Ni?o or a La Ni?a?)
Post by: elagache on March 19, 2019, 11:48:48 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

The gang keeping an eye on El Ni?o and La Ni?a but out another bulletin on March 14th:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The headline has been revised slightly:  "Weak El Nino conditions are likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (~80% chance) and summer (~60% chance)"

Furthermore they report "El Ni?o conditions strengthened during February 2019, as above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) increased across the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the associated atmospheric anomalies became increasingly well-defined."

An El Ni?o during the Spring and Summer isn't something I ever recall experiencing.  So I guess we'll all find out what this sort of unusual temperature scenario will do to our local weather.

Cheers, Edouard
Title: El Ni?o into Autumn? (Re: El Ni?o or a La Ni?a?)
Post by: elagache on May 23, 2019, 11:22:29 PM
Dear WeatherCat observers of El Ni?o and/or La Ni?a,

Those sneaky devils posted an update on the El Ni?o situation but didn't bother to post a headline about it.  The last update is from May 9th.  The title reads:

El Ni?o is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2019 (70% chance) and fall (55-60% chance).

You can read all the details here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The key paragraph is reproduced below:

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict El Ni?o to continue through 2019, with SST anomalies in the Ni?o-3.4 region clustering between +0.5?C and +1.0?C.  However, model predictions made during the spring tend to be less accurate relative to the rest of the year, so uncertainty remains whether this outcome will occur. In the shorter term, a recent increase in westerly wind anomalies over the west-central Pacific Ocean portends the possible development of another downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave, which could build up the above-average subsurface temperatures needed for El Ni?o to persist. In summary, El Ni?o is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2019 (70% chance) and fall (55-60% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

Like all forecasts beyond a few days, take with a generous grain of salt!  [biggrin]

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: Re: A year without either an El Ni?o or a La Ni?a?
Post by: xairbusdriver on May 24, 2019, 01:13:26 AM
What are "SST anomalies"? I thought they were all grounded a decade ago! Although Boeing still makes noises (no pun intended, of course) about building one. I don't think that's a high priority for them right now, however...

Quote
Like all forecasts beyond a few days, take with a generous grain of salt!
My docs wants me to lay off salt as much as possible...
Title: Could it be? . . . . (Re: A year without either an El Ni?o or a La Ni?a? )
Post by: elagache on August 16, 2019, 11:18:59 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate observers,

We are starting to make the transition from Summer to Autumn and the "da' usual suspects" have been once more pouring over their tea leaves with respect to El Ni?o and La Ni?a.  You can read the latest discussion here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

This time they have concluded:

El Ni?o has transitioned to ENSO-neutral, which is most likely to continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2019-20 (50-55% chance).

Of course this is different than either El Ni?o or La Ni?a, but what will this actually do to your local winter season? . . . . . . (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/confused_do_no.gif)

. . . . . . As usual, we are all left with about the same uncertainty as we had before the forecast! . . . . (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/D'oh.gif)

Such are da' conditions that prevail! . . . . . .

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: Re: A year without either an El Ni?o or a La Ni?a?
Post by: Blicj11 on August 21, 2019, 03:45:18 PM
I love reading through this stuff and not knowing anything more afterwards than I did before. Not.
Title: Could it be a La Niña winter? (Re: El Niño or a La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on July 10, 2020, 12:36:25 AM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Another favorite weather-related soap-opera is the dance of El Niño and La Niña.  It is only July, but the CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (aka da' usual suspects,) are already weighing in on the subject.  You can read all about it here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The headline reads:  "ENSO-neutral is favored to continue through the summer, with a 50-55% chance of La Niña development during Northern Hemisphere fall 2020 and continuing through winter 2020-21 (~50% chance)"

You can plow through the gobbledygook yourself for all the sorted details.   What I've noticed is that ENSO-neutral years tend to be drought years here in California (at least for the past decade or so.)  In contrast, either El Niño and La Niña tend to bring above normal rainfall.  Of course none of this makes sense, but that exactly what does anymore? (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/confused_do_no.gif)

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]

Title: Re: A year without either an El Ni?o or a La Ni?a?
Post by: Blicj11 on July 10, 2020, 03:36:03 PM
Hahaha. Looks like there is a 50-50 chance that something could happen. Or not. Let's hope for the best, whatever that is. Thanks for posting; I alway find these ENSO predictions interesting but I get the most out of your summary.
Title: La Niña Advisory! (Re: El Niño or La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on September 14, 2020, 10:43:45 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

When it comes to forecasting an El Niño or La Niña, often it is best to allow the experts to "simmer" a bit before looking to see what they have decided.  Here we are in September and lo and behold we are under a  La Niña Advisory.  You can read all the "gruesome" details on the usual webpage:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

However, the key point comes straight from the synopsis:" La Niña conditions are present and are likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (~75% chance)."

Now that this threat seems more real, you can cruise over to the Wikipedia page on La Niña:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Ni%C3%B1a (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Ni%C3%B1a)

There you will find a list of past La Niña events.  You can then compare those years to your weather station data to . . . . perhaps  (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/confused_do_no.gif) . . . . decide what this might mean for your location.

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: 95% chance of La Niña! (Re: El Niño or La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on November 18, 2020, 11:03:30 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

There is an update on the El Niño or La Niña situation:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The synopsis says it all: "La Niña is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 (~95% chance during January-March) and into spring 2021 (~65% chance during March-May)"

Rarely can you get such odds in gambling!  Alas, the usual problem remains: so exactly what sort of weather will we stumble into thanks to betting on La Niña? (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/confused_do_no.gif)

Unfortunately, for most of us, we will find out da' hard way! . . . .  [banghead]

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]

Title: Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?
Post by: Blicj11 on November 19, 2020, 01:57:16 AM
Thanks for the post. Apparently we have a 95% chance that weather will continue but no specifics. Hahaha.
Title: Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?
Post by: The Grand Poohbah on November 19, 2020, 05:54:31 PM
Quote
Apparently we have a 95% chance that weather will continue but no specifics.

So true. But, even better, it's good to have such thoughtful reassurances in these troubling times

I hope you don't mind if I quote you.
Title: Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?
Post by: Blicj11 on November 20, 2020, 06:36:25 PM
I hope you don't mind if I quote you.

Hahaha, quote away!
Title: La Niña! weakening by spring? (Re: El Niño or La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on December 16, 2020, 12:13:07 AM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

There is yet another update on the El Niño or La Niña situation:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The synopsis provides the key info: "La Niña is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 (~95% chance during January-March), with a potential transition during the spring 2021 (~50% chance of Neutral during April-June)"

The discussion proposes that we are going to experience a "moderate" La Niña event.  Alas, at least in Northern California, La Niña is behaving very differently than in past events and our extreme drought is only getting worse.  (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/desert-smiley.gif)

Alas, such are da' conditions that thus far prevail, . . . . . .

Oh well, Edouard 
Title: Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?
Post by: Blicj11 on December 22, 2020, 10:02:28 PM
Thanks for sharing. Is till don't know hat it means, other than the western US is drier then dry.
Title: La Niña down but not out. (Re: El Niño or La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on March 11, 2021, 11:33:31 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

The El Niño / La Niña soap opera has been continuing without any significant change the plot for this winter.  There is another update today:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The synopsis reads as follows:  " There is a ~60% chance of a transition from La Niña to ENSO-Neutral during the Northern Hemisphere spring 2021 (April-June)."

As you can read in the diagnostic discussion, the indicators have been waffling during winter.   La Niña conditions have diminished in some oceans but not others.  The expectation remains that conditions will shift to so-called ENSO-Neutral before the start of summer.  Alas for those of us who appear to suffering from drought as a result of La Niña, that would be too late to affect the winter rainy season.

So, as seems to be all to common these days:

Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . . . . . .

Oh well, . . . . . Edouard
Title: Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?
Post by: Blicj11 on March 11, 2021, 11:58:17 PM
Thanks for the summary. All I know is we got a lot of snow in February and are still in very dangerous drought conditions. Snow pack is about 2/3 of normal.
Title: No more La Niña . . . . at least until autumn! (Re: El Niño or La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on May 17, 2021, 10:41:33 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Da' usual suspects
have issued their final pronouncement with respect to this past winter's La Niña.  You can read all about it here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The headline reads as follow:  "La Niña has ended, with ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer (67% chance in June-August 2021). "

However, as seems typical for this soap opera, then the plots gets more murky.  The bulk of the second paragraph reads as follows:

Most of the models in the IRI/CPC plume predict a continuation of ENSO-neutral through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2021. The forecaster consensus agrees with this set of models through the summer, and then begins hedging toward cooler conditions as the Northern Hemisphere fall approaches. La Niña chances are around 50-55% during the late fall and winter, which is in alignment with forecasts from the NCEP Climate Forecast System and North American Multi-model Ensemble. However, there is typically large uncertainty with forecasts made in the spring, so confidence in ENSO-neutral for the coming seasons is highest.

So the situation is clear . . . . . . .  as soapy water for the summer and degrading toward mud as we approach winter.

As Jimmy Durante would put it:  Such are da' conditions that prevail! . . . . . . . .

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?
Post by: Blicj11 on May 19, 2021, 11:42:32 PM
Thanks for posting. Even if it didn't say anything I understand.
Title: Job security!! (Re: El Niño or La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on May 21, 2021, 12:42:02 AM
Dear Blick and WeatherCat observers of climate science and . . . . . . . . taxpayers!! . . .

. . .  Even if it didn't say anything I understand.

 [wink] . . . . Of course!  What did you expect?  If we understood what da' usual suspects were really up to - we'd probably fire them in a heartbeat! . . . . . . .  lol(1)

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?
Post by: Steve on May 21, 2021, 03:19:51 PM
Thanks for posting. Even if it didn't say anything I understand.

It's California. The weather never changes, so they have to come up with ever more complex ways to say "The weather will be perfect today, but if it isn't, it will be perfect tomorrow."

That's the west coast equivalent to the adage applied to much of the Midwest; "If you don't like the weather, wait five minutes." ;)

Title: What!?!?? - Another La Niña? (Re: El Niño or La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on July 10, 2021, 09:47:03 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate observers,

As Blick reported elsewhere on this forum:

https://athena.trixology.com/index.php?topic=3316.msg31869#msg31869 (https://athena.trixology.com/index.php?topic=3316.msg31869#msg31869)

Da' usual suspects have once more issued a La Niña watch.  You can read all the gory details at this link:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The synopsis reads as follows:  "ENSO-neutral is favored through the Northern Hemisphere summer and into the fall (51% chance for the August-October season), with La Niña potentially emerging during the September-November season and lasting through the 2021-22 winter (66% chance during November-January)."

I don't know about you guys, but at least for me, this constantly creating sequels of the same movie is really getting old . . . . . . . . . . (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/unhappy_grumble_smiley.jpg)

Oh well, . . . . . . Edouard  :-\
Title: More La Niña chatter . . . . . (Re: El Niño or La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on August 31, 2021, 10:57:38 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Sorry for the late notice, this was posted on the 12th of August, but I didn't visit the Climate Predication Center website until now.  There is yet another La Niña headline:

ENSO-neutral is favored for the remainder of summer (~60% chance in the July-September season), with La Niña possibly emerging during the August-October season and lasting through the 2021-22 winter (~70% chance during November-January)

You can read (as usual) all the gory details here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The gist I get from the discussion is that sub sea temperatures have already started to decrease more than expected and more recent runs of their forecast models are consistent with a weak La Niña starting as early as autumn.

As usual, what this means for us climate-bound morals is utterly unclear.  The patterns I had noticed in the past seem overturned by changes in the seasons that seem undeniably due to climate change.  Nonetheless, particularly for those of us in the drought stricken west, La Niña is definitely something to keep an eye on.

Edouard
Title: Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?
Post by: Blicj11 on September 01, 2021, 11:31:07 PM
i always rely on your two-sentence interpretations of this gobbledy gook, so thanks for letting us know the experts don't have  any idea what is going to happen, or when.
Title: Da' woman's prerogative. . . . (Re: El Niño or La Niña? )
Post by: elagache on October 21, 2021, 11:30:56 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Da' usual suspects have once more weighed in on the subject of El Niño or La Niña.  You can read up on all da' dirt at the usual webpage: 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The synopsis is also the punch-line:  "La Niña conditions have developed and are expected to continue with an 87% chance of La Niña in December 2021- February 2022. "

In addition, NOAA created this slick press release announcing the "double-dip La Niña"

https://www.noaa.gov/news/double-dip-la-nina-emerges (https://www.noaa.gov/news/double-dip-la-nina-emerges)

There is also a press release outlining NOAA's winter outlook, but I'll save that for another day.

As usual, what does it mean?  (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/confused_do_no.gif)  Well, look at it this way, I certainly wouldn't buy or sell any stocks based on this information!!  . . . (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/big_laugh.gif)

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: La Niña advisory. (Re: El Niño or La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on November 12, 2021, 11:58:06 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Da' usual suspects
have been at it again and have another pronouncement on this year's La Niña.  You can read all about it at the usual place:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The synopsis is pretty emphatic:  "La Niña is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2021-22 (~90% chance) and into spring 2022 (~50% chance during March-May)."

It is hard to argue with a 90% probably that La Niña will be present this winter.  There is a bit of additional news (and I quote:) "At its peak, a moderate-strength La Niña is favored."  I couldn't easily ferret out what last year's La Niña event was, but if I recall correctly it was a weak event.  The weather seems different than last year, we might be in for a winter that doesn't resemble last year's.  Of course what does that mean?  The usual uncertainty applies. (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/confused_do_no.gif)

Oh well,
. . . . . Edouard
Title: La Niña winter but not spring? (Re: El Niño or La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on December 11, 2021, 09:34:32 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Da' usual suspects continue to be at large and have issued another pronouncement on the Niña situation.  As usual you can read it here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The synopsis shows an important difference from last bulletin: "La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2021-22 (~95% chance) and transition to ENSO-neutral during the spring 2022 (~60% chance during April-June)"

As reported here earlier (https://athena.trixology.com/index.php?topic=2509.msg32142#msg32142), the previous forecast was for La Niña to continue into the spring.  The discussion notes the change:

"The IRI/CPC plume average of forecasts for the Niño-3.4 SST index indicates La Niña will continue through the February-April 2022 season [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus anticipates a transition to ENSO-neutral sometime during the Northern Hemisphere spring, with chances for La Niña declining below 50% after March-May 2022. The chance of a moderate-strength La Niña declined slightly from last month's update, but there is still a 59% chance of the Niño-3.4 index reaching a value less than -1.0°C for the November 2021 - January 2022 season. "

So the forecast has indeed changed.  Does that change the meaning for us mere mortals?  As was true last month, the usual uncertainty applies . . .. (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/confused_do_no.gif)

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?
Post by: Blicj11 on December 11, 2021, 11:43:52 PM
Sounds like we can expect either warmer, cooler, wetter, drier, or the same as last winter. In 6 months the Cat [WCSmall] and I will tell you exactly how it all turned out.  :)
Title: Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?
Post by: xairbusdriver on December 15, 2021, 03:33:00 PM
Here's a late (Dec 11,2021) link to a YouTube vid (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fKFKzLp4DUI) from an airline Captain. It shows the sad state of the Oroville reservoir. He took his Husky (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviat_Husky) up last Saturday.

There is also mention of the forecast precip that should be ending about now (Dec 15). Hope you also got some rain/snow in the watersheds a bit nearer your area. Frankly, I don't see how you can hope for more than a very slow and incomplete recovery from the drought conditions.
Title: Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?
Post by: The Grand Poohbah on December 15, 2021, 07:12:03 PM
Here's a late (Dec 11,2021) link to a YouTube vid (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fKFKzLp4DUI) from an airline Captain. It shows the sad state of the Oroville reservoir. He took his Husky (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviat_Husky) up last Saturday.

There is also mention of the forecast precip that should be ending about now (Dec 15). Hope you also got some rain/snow in the watersheds a bit nearer your area. Frankly, I don't see how you can hope for more than a very slow and incomplete recovery from the drought conditions.

The airline captain's YouTube handle is "blancolirio" and he lives in Grass Valley, CA, not too far from us. We had a big storm pass thru after he did the Lake Oroville video. The storm dropped up to 7 inches of rain in places (4 inches at our location) and many feet of snow in the Sierra Nevada mountains. The static water level in our well went up 3 feet because of the storm. Another storm is on it's way starting this afternoon. Woo-wee! Bring it on!
Title: Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?
Post by: Blicj11 on December 16, 2021, 04:37:23 PM
Woo-wee! Bring it on!

Amen!
Title: Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?
Post by: xairbusdriver on December 27, 2021, 11:24:29 PM
Looks like the Oroville water level is actually rising and will have a good amount of snow pack in the Sierras next Spring. Edouard's graphs show a bit of rain... ThU32:-)
Title: Still the same refrain . . . . . (Re: El Niño or La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on January 16, 2022, 12:43:48 AM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Undeterred by Omicron or tsunamis , Da' usual suspects remain at large and released another communique this week.  You can read up on all da' dirt here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The synopsis basically provides the same refrain:  "La Niña is likely to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring (67% chance during March-May 2022) and then transition to ENSO-neutral (51% chance during April-June 2022). "

They are hedging their bets a bit as to when da' fickle princess will final depart, but the overall theme is a transition back to ENSO-neutral sea temperature conditions by the mid to late spring.

Of course da' usual question remains - what does it mean?  (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/confused_do_no.gif)  However, as noted in an earlier posting: . . . .

Well, look at it this way, I certainly wouldn't buy or sell any stocks based on this information!!  . . . (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/big_laugh.gif)

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: La Niña still dragging her feet. (Re: El Niño or La Niña)
Post by: elagache on February 21, 2022, 10:27:37 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Da' usual suspects have once more resurfaced to make a proclamation on the usual El Niño/La Niña question.  This time they have changed their tune slightly.  As usual, you can catch up on all the sordid details at this link:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

Here is the synopsis:

La Niña is likely to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring (77% chance during March-May 2022) and then transition to ENSO-neutral (56% chance during May-July 2022).

This is a change from last month in that it seems La Niña is reluctant to leave.  The discussion fills in some of the details:  Below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) weakened during January 2022, though anomalies stayed negative across most of the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

The punch-line is:  The IRI/CPC plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index continues to forecast a transition to ENSO-neutral during the Northern Hemisphere spring. Because the easterly trade winds have recently been strengthening and are predicted to continue in the near term, the forecaster consensus favors those models suggesting a slower decay of La Niña through the spring. However, ENSO-neutral is still anticipated to return by the Northern Hemisphere summer, although the chance does not exceed 57% during June-August 2022, reflecting the uncertainty associated with the spring predictability barrier.

So what has been uncertain at best has become even more uncertain.  Why am I not surprised? . . . . .  (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/confused_do_no.gif)

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]

Title: Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?
Post by: Blicj11 on February 25, 2022, 03:41:53 PM
I always appreciate your synopsis of this gobbeldy gook, even if all it says is, "We're not sure, but we think there may still be some weather of one kind or another."
Title: Da' girl simply won't leave . . . . (Re: El Niño or La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on April 14, 2022, 11:16:02 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Hot off the press is a new twist in the worn out plot regarding La Niña.  As usual you can get your fix at the usual webspot:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The headline reads:  "La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer (59% chance during June-August 2022), with a 50-55% chance through the fall."

The long and the short of it is that models aren't converging very clearly, but in so far as there is any convergence, La Niña would continue until the autumn.

It isn't at all clear what is the effect of La Niña on the worsening drought in the western United States, but those of us fed up with the dry conditions certainly have no reason for hope in this forecast.  (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/desert-smiley.gif)

Oh well, . . . . . . Edouard (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/pout.gif)
Title: La Niña drags on . . . . . . (Re: El Niño or La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on May 13, 2022, 11:07:42 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

The proper authorities should really round up "da' usual suspects" so that they cannot do any more harm.  Alas, they remain at large and are up to their usual mischief.  Their latest communique seems like still more bad news for drought sufferers in the western United States.  You can read up on all da' dirt for yourself at the usual spot:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The synopsis reads as follows: "Though La Niña is favored to continue, the odds for La Niña decrease into the late Northern Hemisphere summer (58% chance in August-October 2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (61% chance)."

The key observation can be found in this sentence in the discussion:  "However, much of the model guidance is also hinting at a re-strengthening of La Niña conditions again in the fall and upcoming winter."

So if you like La Niña, I suppose this is a hopeful forecast.  For those of us who associate La Niña with drought - enough said . . . . . (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/desert-smiley.gif)

What'ya gonna do? . . . . . . . Edouard (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/confused_do_no.gif)
Title: Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?
Post by: Blicj11 on May 14, 2022, 03:05:38 PM
Booooo!
Title: Can't seem to catch a break . . . (Re: El Niño or La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on June 24, 2022, 11:13:32 PM
Dear WeatherCat subscribers to the El Niño or La Niña soap opera,

I must apologize for not keeping closer tabs on "da' usual suspects," but by this time of year they are normally on vacation or something.   I guess with the price of gas they opted for a staycation and since they were stuck in the house they chose to accost us with another communique.  The latest annoyance can be found at the usual spot on the web:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The headline reads thus:  "Though La Niña is favored to continue through the end of the year, the odds for La Niña decrease into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (52% chance in July-September 2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (58-59% chance)."

You can read all the details for yourself, but the bottom line is that the forecast models predict that la Niña will weaken for a time and then return.  How much stock should you put into these models?  Well, let's put it this way, they might be more trustworthy than cryptocurrencies - or not! . . .  :o

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?
Post by: Blicj11 on June 25, 2022, 02:22:19 PM
 In other words, the weather might be different, or the same. Stay tuned …
Title: La Niña still hanging around. (Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on September 09, 2022, 10:19:57 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

D'em usual suspects are a gabby lot and they have been blabbering all summer long.  However, now that autumn is in the wings, perhaps it is more important to see what are their latest prognostications.  As usual, you can catch up on all da' dirt, at the usual spot on the world wide web:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The synopsis is as follows:  "La Niña is favored to continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23, with a 91% chance in September-November, decreasing to a 54% chance in January-March 2023."

In this case, the discussion is more interesting.  Here is second paragraph which discusses the issues associated with the predication:  "The most recent IRI plume forecast of the Niño-3.4 SST index indicates La Niña will persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23. There is an interesting split in the dynamical versus statistical model forecasts, with the latter set suggesting La Niña will persist longer, through January-March 2023. At this time, the forecaster consensus sides with the statistical models, although there is still large uncertainty over how long La Niña will last and when it will transition to ENSO-neutral (56% chance of a transition to ENSO-neutral during February-April 2023). In summary, La Niña is favored to continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23, with a 91% chance in September-November, decreasing to a 54% chance in January-March 2023."

The punch line is very much what this ongoing soap opera seems to suggest.  La Niña is hanging around for much longer than the climate experts were expecting, and thus far, there isn't any obvious signs of when it will end.  As much as we all enjoy a chuckle when predictions like this fall flat, there is a sobering point we all should accept.  The atmospheric oceanic system is extremely large, complex, and intrinsically chaotic.  It is easier to predictions about subatomic physics than our own climate.  The obvious trouble is that we really need to know what our climate is doing - far more in some respects than particle physics. 

Cheers, Edouard
Title: Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?
Post by: Blicj11 on September 10, 2022, 01:06:32 AM
My favorite part of all this is you taking the time to summarize the latest so the rest of us don't have to dig through the technical mumbo jumbo. Thank you!!
Title: Triple-dip La Niña! (Re: El Niño or La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on September 13, 2022, 09:45:51 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Apparently, WeatherCatters aren't the only folks keeping an eye on "da' usual suspects."  The forecast of a third La Niña winter for the northern hemisphere has gotten the attention of the press who have dubbed it: "triple-dip La Niña!"

Sadly, what is being reported isn't particularly insightful.  This piece from NPR is representative:

https://www.npr.org/2022/09/12/1122259523/triple-dip-la-nina-explained-weather (https://www.npr.org/2022/09/12/1122259523/triple-dip-la-nina-explained-weather)

As those of us facing still more drought are all too painfully aware - no amount of explanations is going to cause the rains to return . . . . . . (https://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/desert-smiley.gif)

Such are da' conditions that prevail out west in these days . . . .

Edouard
Title: Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?
Post by: xairbusdriver on September 14, 2022, 02:06:24 AM
I tried to read that when it came out earlier this week. But I stopped when I read that
Quote
when strong winds blow warm water on the surface of the Pacific Ocean near the coast of South America across the equator toward Indonesia, other parts of Asia and Australia.

That causes cooler water to rise to the surface of the Pacific Ocean…
What? If I had missed the name of the reporter, I would have assumed this was the product of a committee… of geography-challenged grade schoolers! Definitely not the normal output of NPR. 🙄 😱
Title: La Niña won't quit. (Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on October 19, 2022, 10:39:07 PM
Dear WeatherCat observers of the seasons turning,

Winter is close approaching, so I suppose we should pay more careful attention to the communiques of "da' usual suspects."  They've been at it once more at the usual spot on the World Wide Web:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The synopsis reads:  "There is a 75% chance of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere winter (December-February) 2022-23, with a 54% chance for ENSO-neutral in February-April 2023."

You can read the details, but it seems obvious that the forecast models are having some difficulty with the current La Niña episode.  It seems clear that winter in the northern hemisphere and summer in the southern hemisphere will have to cope with a La Niña that refuses to quit.

Such are da' conditions that appear to be prevailing.
Edouard
Title: Will La Niña finally end? (Re: El Niño or La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on December 09, 2022, 11:05:05 PM
Dear WeatherCat observers of what is the state of the art in climate science,

Da' Usual suspects have been making relatively regular forecasts for the past few months, but they were basically the same as my last posting.  Finally, they are bold enough to claim something new is in the offing.  As usual you can read up on all da' dirt here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The synopsis reads:  " La Niña is expected to continue into the winter, with equal chances of La Niña and ENSO-neutral during January-March 2023. In February-April 2023, there is a 71% chance of ENSO-neutral."

Digging into the details the data for this change still isn't there - to quote: "Below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) persisted in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean during the past month."  As to the forecasts well that seems even more murky - again to quote:  "For the dynamical model averages, ENSO-neutral is favored in January-March 2023, while the statistical model average shows the transition to ENSO-neutral occurs in February-April 2023. The forecaster consensus, which also considers the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), is split on whether La Niña or ENSO-neutral will prevail during January-March 2023. Regardless, there is higher confidence that ENSO-neutral will emerge by the Northern Hemisphere spring."

So if you trust the experts, La Niña should finally release her icy grip on the northern hemisphere sometime between this winter and spring.   However, that doesn't come with a money-back guarantee, so caveat emptor remains your best policy.

Edouard
Title: Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?
Post by: Blicj11 on December 13, 2022, 04:52:17 PM
That's a lot of verbiage to say, "We have no idea, but after it happens, we'll tell you what occurred."
Title: Finally an end to La Niña? (Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on February 13, 2023, 10:40:50 PM
Dear WeatherCat observers of climate phenomena (or alternatively the El Niño/La Niña soap opera.)

Da' usual suspects are still at large and released another communique a few days ago:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The synopsis reads as follows: "ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to begin within the next couple of months, and persist through the Northern Hemisphere spring and early summer."

However as is not uncommon in this soap opera, the plot line is more complex than it seems.  The first sentence of the discussion is: "Although a weak La Niña was still apparent during January, below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continued to weaken further across the equatorial Pacific Ocean"

Nonetheless, for those of us who are sick and tired of La Niña, the second paragraph starts with:  "The most recent IRI plume predicts a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral in the next couple of months. The forecaster consensus is largely in agreement. ENSO-neutral is expected to prevail during the spring and early summer."

At least for those of us in the northern hemisphere, El Niño or La Niña events are of little concern during the summer months.  However, the next sentence is perhaps worth noting as a possible warning for next autumn and winter: "There are increasing chances of El Niño at longer forecast horizons, though uncertainty remains high because of the spring prediction barrier, which typically is associated with lower forecast accuracy."

[wink] . . . .For the moment however, whether an El Niño or the Second Coming is a more likely outcome in the near future is left as an exercise for the reader to . . . . . resolve!?!!?!??  . . (https://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/scratch_head.gif). . .  lol(1)

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?
Post by: Blicj11 on February 14, 2023, 11:00:08 PM
After looking through the article, and reading Edouard's synopsis, I still have no idea what it means. Hahaha. Nevertheless, I still plan on getting up in the morning and carrying on.
Title: Finally - La Niña departs. (Re: El Niño or La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on March 13, 2023, 09:23:30 PM
Dear WeatherCat observers of sea-surface temperatures,

After what has seemed like forever, da' usual suspects have pronounced that La Niña is finally over.  Here is all the gory details:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The synopsis reads: "La Niña has ended and ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring and early summer 2023. "

However, like the last communique, there are threats that El Niño is waiting in the wings.  To quote from the forecast discussion: "The most recent IRI plume favors ENSO-neutral to continue through the spring, with El Niño forming during summer 2023 and persisting through the fall. In contrast, the forecaster consensus favors ENSO-neutral through summer 2023, with elevated chances of El Niño developing afterwards. The smaller chances of El Niño relative to the model predictions are primarily because ENSO forecasts made during the spring are less accurate, and also the tropical Pacific atmosphere is still fairly consistent with a cool/La Niña-like state. However, it is possible that strong warming near South America may portend a more rapid evolution toward El Niño and will be closely monitored."

It is no longer clear how El Niño or La Niña affect the climate given that global warming appears to be suspiciously out of control.  However, I have long suspected that the transitions between these states could have something to do with the manifestation of atmospheric river events like those which have been pounding the west coast of the United States.

So, for better or worse, I do monitor these reports.  It is a little better than a crystal ball.  the operative word is - little!

Cheers,  Edouard
Title: Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?
Post by: Blicj11 on March 13, 2023, 10:00:07 PM
Since the recent atmospheric rivers impacting the western United States are aimed directly at my house, I say, keep 'em coming. To steal Tesco's slogan, "Every little helps." Or, in American English, "Every little bit helps."
Title: If not one then the other . . . . (Re: El Niño or La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on April 14, 2023, 10:23:56 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Regrettably, da' usual suspects remain at large and have released yet another communique.  As usual you can read up on da' dirt at this URL:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The synopsis basically summarizes the situation: "ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring, followed by a 62% chance of El Niño developing during May-July 2023."

The key issue is described in the first paragraph:  "During the last month, above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) became more prominent in the western and far eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The latest weekly Niño-3.4 index value was 0.0°C, but the Niño1+2 index value was +2.7°C, indicating significant warming along the South American coast. Area-averaged subsurface temperatures also increased over the past month, reflecting the dominance of above-average subsurface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean."

So in the face of all the sea surface warming, an  El Niño Watch has been issued.  The interaction between El Niño and progressive climate change is difficult to grasp.  In Northern California, El Niño events used to be welcome because they usually brought above normal rainfall.  However, recent El Niño events have brought the opposite - drought.

So whatever has been your experience, we are now warned that an El Niño may be on our way and we will just have cope with it as best we can.

Oh well, . . . . . . Edouard
Title: 90% probability of El Niño this winter. (Re: El Niño or La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on May 16, 2023, 11:00:24 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Da' usual suspects are still at it and released another communique.  As usual you can get all the gory details at the usual location on the web:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The synopsis is basically a more detailed version of my subject line: A transition from ENSO-neutral is expected in the next couple of months, with a greater than 90% chance of El Niño persisting into the Northern Hemisphere winter.

The discussion doesn't mention what has been in some weather headlines: that sea surface temperatures have been detected to be unusually warm for the season.  There is some concern that this another manifestation of global warming.  However, the second paragraph clearly displays a wide range of possibilities as quoted here:

The most recent IRI plume also indicates El Niño is likely to form during the May-July season and persist into the winter. The combination of a forecasted third westerly wind event in mid-late May, and high levels of above-average oceanic heat content, means that a potentially significant El Niño is on the horizon. While at least a weak El Niño is likely, the range of possibilities at the end of the year (November-January) include a 80% chance of at least a moderate El Niño (Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.0°C) to a ~55% chance of a strong El Niño (Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.5°C). It is still possible the tropical atmosphere does not couple with the ocean, and El Niño fails to materialize (5-10% chance).

Anyone that has been effected by El Niño in the past might want to consult this Wikipedia article on past events:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o)

From that article, here are the recent El Niño events:  Since 2000, El Niño events have been observed in 2002–03, 2004–05, 2006–07, 2009–10, 2014–16, and 2018–19

At Canebas weather station which has been up since 2009, El Niño years have tended to be normal to above normal rainfall.  However, as the old saying goes: "your mileage may vary."

As usual, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . . . .

Edouard
Title: The Weather Channel's take on an El Niño summer. (Re: El Niño or La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on May 19, 2023, 10:55:27 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

The Weather Channel has posted their expectations on how El Niño might effect the summer weather in the United States:

https://weather.com/safety/heat/news/2023-05-16-summer-temperature-outlook (https://weather.com/safety/heat/news/2023-05-16-summer-temperature-outlook)

The effects on the temperatures seemed a bit curious and interesting.

Cheers, Edouard

P.S. I never bothered to watch the video itself.  I got all I was curious about from the diagrams.
Title: El Niño Advisory (Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on June 10, 2023, 10:00:02 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Another month has passed and there is yet another communique from da' usual suspects.  You can read all about it here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The synopsis reads as follows: El Niño conditions are present and are expected to gradually strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24.

Not much has changed from last month.  Instead their confidence about how this El Niño will unfold is increasing.  The key punch-line is: At its peak, the chance of a strong El Niño is nearly the same as it was last month (56% chance of November-January Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.5°C), with an 84% chance of exceeding moderate strength (Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.0°C).

The report has gotten the attention of the press.  For example, the Weather Channel ran this piece:

https://weather.com/news/climate/news/2023-06-08-el-nino-has-developed (https://weather.com/news/climate/news/2023-06-08-el-nino-has-developed)

So whatever an El Niño does to your weather, you might start planning for it assuming there is anything you can do to prepare!

Edouard

Title: Re: El Niño Advisory (Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?)
Post by: Blicj11 on June 12, 2023, 08:35:42 PM
So whatever an El Niño does to your weather, you might start planning for it assuming there is anything you can do to prepare!

So whatever it did this past winter, I vote for a repeat.
Title: Re: El Niño Advisory (Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on June 12, 2023, 10:59:38 PM
Dear Blick and WeatherCat drought sufferers,

So whatever it did this past winter, I vote for a repeat.

You won't get any disagreement from me!

I have been attempting to see if there is any relationship between El Niño, La Niña, and abundant rainfall.  Here are the relevant Wikipedia articles with the years:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Ni%C3%B1a (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Ni%C3%B1a)

Comparing that to my data it seems like the most abundant rainfall happens during a transition like La Niña ending this year.  So next year might not be the best for the West.  However, we won't find out until we get there!

Cheers, Edouard
Title: El Niño threat continues. (Re: El Niño or La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on July 14, 2023, 10:49:14 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Another month has passed and there is yet another communique from da' usual suspects.  You can read all about it here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The synopsis is very much the same as last month: There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter.

The aspect of the discussion that raised my eyebrows was this sentence:  Forecasters favor continued growth of El Niño through the fall, peaking this winter with moderate-to-strong intensity (81% chance of November-January Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.0°C). An event that becomes "historically strong" (seasonally averaged Niño-3.4 ≥ 2.0°C), rivaling the winters of 1997-98 or 2015-16, has an approximately 1 in 5 chance.

We are still July and a lot can happen between now and winter, but if an El Niño could be an issue at your location - a possible risk is clearly looming.

Edouard
Title: Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?
Post by: Blicj11 on July 17, 2023, 04:37:29 PM
As always, your synopsis of the gobbledy gook is much appreciated.
Title: Two articles on the ENSO on Climate.gov. (Re: El Niño or La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on July 29, 2023, 10:00:37 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

The World Wide Web is a big place and you can easily miss something that you should be interested in.  Somehow I never stumbled across the U.S. government site Climate.gov (https://www.climate.gov/) until now:

https://www.climate.gov/ (https://www.climate.gov/)

There were two interesting articles on it with regards to the  El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).  The first is on how experts decided when an El Niño event is coming:

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/june-2023-enso-update-el-ni%C3%B1o-here (https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/june-2023-enso-update-el-ni%C3%B1o-here)

The second is an article describing a study attempting to determine if global warming has changed the cycles of El Niño and La Niña:

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/has-climate-change-already-affected-enso (https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/has-climate-change-already-affected-enso)

Both articles are interesting, although the methodology used to assess the effect of global warming seems to me to be a bit of a stretch.  My only overall complaint is that the rhetoric was, by my tastes anyway, a little too folksy and elementary.  Perhaps it is a sign that a high school education hasn't maintained the literacy standards from my youth.

Edouard
Title: Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?
Post by: Blicj11 on August 01, 2023, 11:15:12 PM
Thanks for sharing.
Title: Strong El Niño anticipated. . . . (Re: El Niño or La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on August 11, 2023, 10:17:10 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Another month has passed and those "ENSO" watchers have another pronouncement.  As usual, you can find all the technical jargon on this webpage:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The synopsis reads as follows: " El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (with greater than 95% chance through December 2023 -February 2024)."

Of greater interest is the strength of the El Niño.  On that issue, the discussion reports: "Given recent developments, forecasters are more confident in a 'strong' El Niño event, with roughly 2 in 3 odds of an event reaching or exceeding 1.5°C for the November-January seasonal average in Niño-3.4. Note that a strong El Niño does not necessarily equate to strong El Niño impacts locally, with the odds of related climate anomalies often lower than the chances of El Niño itself (e.g., CPC's seasonal outlooks)."

As usual, it doesn't give us mere mortals much of an idea of what to expect.  However, it does give us good reason to compare our local weather in the past to what occurred during a strong El Niño event.  That is about all the guidance we can get these days.

As seems to be all too common these days: like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing.

Edouard
Title: Confidence is building. (Re: El Niño or La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on September 15, 2023, 10:50:49 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Another month has passed and da' usual suspects have released another communique.  You can read it here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The synopsis reads as follows: "El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (with greater than 95% chance through January - March 2024)."

The key sentence from the discussion is as follows: "The most recent IRI plume indicates El Niño will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24. Despite nearly the same ensemble mean amplitude as last month, the shorter forecast horizon means that the odds of at least a "strong" El Niño (≥1.5°C for the November-January seasonal average in Niño-3.4) have increased to 71%."

Nonetheless, they attach the following disclaimer: "However, a strong El Niño does not necessarily equate to strong impacts locally, with the odds of related climate anomalies often lower than the chances of El Niño itself (e.g., CPC's seasonal outlooks)."

Nonetheless, if you needed convincing that you need to look up the records at your location to see what a strong El Niño might do to your location, this might very well do the trick.

Edouard
Title: Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?
Post by: Blicj11 on September 15, 2023, 11:14:10 PM
I always appreciate your pulling out the key sentences so I don't have to sort through the gobbledy gook. Here is my personal bottom line: It's a crap shoot and they have no idea what's going to happen. And you can quote me on that.
Title: The Weather Channel's take on an El Niño winter. (Re: El Niño or La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on September 25, 2023, 10:10:07 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Just as back in May, the gang at the Weather Channel have noticed the El Niño prediction and now have a summary of what they expect should happen for this winter.  Here is a link to the video:

https://weather.com/news/weather/video/what-el-nino-has-historically-meant-for-winter-in-the-us (https://weather.com/news/weather/video/what-el-nino-has-historically-meant-for-winter-in-the-us)

It is a nice overview with easy to follow graphics.

Edouard
Title: Major El Niño expected. (Re: El Niño or La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on October 16, 2023, 10:30:27 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Da' usual suspects have been back at it once more and have released their latest prognostications.  We are now under a  El Niño Advisory.  As usual you can read up on it at this web address:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The synopsis for this month reads as follows:  "El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring (with an 80% chance during March-May 2024)."

However, what seems to be the most important part can found in the second paragraph which includes the following "The most recent IRI plume favors El Niño to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2024. Also considering recent observations and the NMME, the team favors at least a "strong" event with a 75-85% chance through November-January (≥ 1.5°C for the seasonal average in Niño-3.4). There is a 3 in 10 chance of a "historically strong" event that rivals 2015-16 and 1997-98 (seasonal average ≥ 2.0°C). Stronger El Niño events increase the likelihood of El Niño-related climate anomalies, but do not necessarily equate to strong impacts locally."

With winter fast approaching, it seems like we all should expect a strong El Niño event and plan appropriately.

Edouard
Title: How El Niño affects California winters. (Re: El Niño or La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on October 18, 2023, 10:05:56 PM
Dear California WeatherCatters,

The Weather Channel has a well-presented article on the effects of El Niño on California in past years:

https://weather.com/news/climate/news/2023-10-17-el-nino-california-winter-weather-rain-snow (https://weather.com/news/climate/news/2023-10-17-el-nino-california-winter-weather-rain-snow)

The rainfall diagrams in particular are very interesting.  However, they are clear to caution that there are no guarantees - a very prudent position to take.

Edouard
Title: Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?
Post by: xairbusdriver on October 18, 2023, 10:24:39 PM
Sorry, remind me, again, where is this "California"? [interesting] cmu:-)
Title: Strong El Niño still anticipated. . . . (Re: El Niño or La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on November 09, 2023, 11:01:42 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Another month has passed and da' usual suspects are still at large and doing mischief.  You can find their latest prognostication at the usual place:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The synopsis for this month reads as follows: "El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring (with a 62% chance during April-June 2024)"

However, like last month, the juicy info is to be found in second paragraph and reiterates what was proposed last month: "The most recent IRI plume favors El Niño to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2024. Based on latest forecasts, there is a greater than 55% chance of at least a "strong" El Niño (≥ 1.5°C in Niño-3.4 for a seasonal average) persisting through January-March 2024. There is a 35% chance of this event becoming "historically strong" (≥ 2.0°C) for the November-January season."

The same disclaimer is then provided as was stated last month.  Basically, it is the usual "your mileage may vary."

Either it is a slow weather news day, or perhaps this really is serious, but the Weather Channel picked up on this report right away.  Here is their take on the situation:

https://weather.com/news/climate/news/2023-11-09-el-nino-strong-november-update-noaa (https://weather.com/news/climate/news/2023-11-09-el-nino-strong-november-update-noaa)

As usual, what does this mean exactly? . . . . . good question!

Edouard
Title: Weather Channel's update on this winter. (Re: El Niño or La Niña? )
Post by: elagache on November 16, 2023, 10:47:48 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

The Weather Channel has updated their report on the effect of El Niño on the United States this winter:

https://weather.com/safety/winter/news/2023-11-15-winter-temperature-outlook-forecast-united-states (https://weather.com/safety/winter/news/2023-11-15-winter-temperature-outlook-forecast-united-states)

This report is focused on temperatures and notes some of the curve balls that could change what a typical strong El Niño does to the continental US.

FYI . . . . . .  Edouard
Title: 54% chance of a historically strong El Niño. (Re: El Niño or La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on December 14, 2023, 11:27:40 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Da' Usual Suspects aren't taking December off for the holidays.  As is their tradition, they have issued another communique on the second Thursday of the month.  You can read it here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The synopsis reads as follows: "El Niño is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral favored during April-June 2024 (60% chance)"

That could be good news for folks who get in trouble during El Niño years.  At least it is expected to end after this winter.  However, there are some juicy details in the text that definitely should catch the attention of anyone effected by El Niño.  To quote: "based on the latest forecasts, there is now a 54% chance of a "historically strong" El Niño during the November-January season (≥ 2.0°C in Niño-3.4). An event of this strength would potentially be in the top 5 of El Niño events since 1950. "

After this observation, the discussion provides the usual "your mileage may vary" disclaimer.

Nonetheless, this forecast definitely got the Weather Channel all excited:

https://weather.com/news/climate/news/2023-12-14-super-el-nino-chances-december-noaa-update (https://weather.com/news/climate/news/2023-12-14-super-el-nino-chances-december-noaa-update)

One quote from the Weather Channel piece might be of interest to anyone who has had their weather stations up for over a decade: "T​he last two strong El Niños proved this by having extremely different outcomes. Winter 2009-10, for example, was much colder than expected in the U.S. during a strong El Niño winter.  A​nd there are indications this strong El Niño may be behaving like 2009-10, at least initially."

So if you have data going back to 2009-10, you might take a look to see how your location might be effected by El Niño this year.

Edouard

Title: Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?
Post by: LesCimes on December 18, 2023, 04:24:00 PM
Quote
So if you have data going back to 2009-10, you might take a look to see how your location might be effected by El Niño this year.

I wasn't sure, so I double checked. I do have data from January 2010 to the present! Thanks for the idea.
Title: Still El Niño advisory. (Re: El Niño or La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on January 12, 2024, 11:10:07 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

It may be a new year, but Da' Usual Suspects are still at it.  As is their tradition, they have issued another communique on the second Thursday of the month.  You can read it here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The synopsis reads as follows: "El Niño is expected to continue for the next several seasons, with ENSO-neutral favored during April-June 2024 (73% chance)."

What is meant by "several seasons" is a bit baffling to me.  At most it could mean only 2 seasons: winter and spring.

The discussion no longer mentions a strong El Niño.  Indeed a sentence in the second paragraph reads: "The most recent IRI plume indicates El Niño will gradually weaken and then transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024."  Also to be found in the second paragraph is some wishful forecasting at least in my opinion:  "There are also increasing odds of La Niña in the seasons following a shift to ENSO-neutral."

It isn't that these forecasts are particularly clear at best, but this forecast definitely left me rather uncertain as to what they are expecting.

Edouard
Title: Re: Still El Niño advisory. (Re: El Niño or La Niña?)
Post by: Blicj11 on January 15, 2024, 04:28:44 PM
It isn't that these forecasts are particularly clear at best, but this forecast definitely left me rather uncertain as to what they are expecting.

It's clear to me. They are saying the weather will either be warmer and drier, colder and wetter, or about the same as normal. Unless it isn't.  :)
Title: In other words . . . . (Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on January 15, 2024, 11:11:22 PM
Dear Blick and WeatherCat commentators on weather forecasting technology,

It's clear to me. They are saying the weather will either be warmer and drier, colder and wetter, or about the same as normal. Unless it isn't.  :)

In other words . . . . It is as clear as MUD!

Oh well, . . . . Edouard
Title: Back to the yo-yo . . . . (Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on February 12, 2024, 11:31:44 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Another month has passed and we have the latest pronouncements from da' usual suspects.  You can get all the details at the usual spot:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The synopsis reads as follows: "A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (79% chance), with increasing odds of La Niña developing in June-August 2024 (55% chance)."

The details really don't add much.  Without having much confidence, the expectation is that we will yo-yo from El Niño to La Niña as this year unfolds.

Take it for whatever it is worth (and mostly likely - it isn't much!  ;) )

Edouard

Title: Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?
Post by: xairbusdriver on February 13, 2024, 04:39:21 PM
I think they got the year right, have to wait till 2025 to confirm everything else. cmu:-)
These Niña/o things get so messed up coming across the Rockies! ::)
Title: Back to the yo-yo . . . . (Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on March 15, 2024, 10:22:06 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Another month has passed and we have the latest pronouncements from da' usual suspects.  You can get all the details at the usual spot:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

This month the plot thickens a bit.  For starters the  ENSO Alert System Status is:  "El Niño Advisory / La Niña Watch."  What would appear to be contradiction is precisely what thickens the plot.

The synopsis reads: "A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (83% chance), with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (62% chance). "

The Weather Channel has picked up on this and has piece written more with the mere mortal in mind:

https://weather.com/news/weather/news/2024-03-14-el-nino-la-nina-forecast-march-update-noaa (https://weather.com/news/weather/news/2024-03-14-el-nino-la-nina-forecast-march-update-noaa)

It summarizes the observations and explains some of the ramifications of a rapid transition from El Niño to La Niña.

The key part of the discussion from da' usual suspects is as follows:

"The most recent IRI plume indicates a transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024, with La Niña potentially developing during summer 2024. While different types of models suggest La Niña will develop, the forecast team favors the dynamical model guidance, which is slightly more accurate for forecasts made during this time of year. Even though forecasts made through the spring season tend to be less reliable, there is a historical tendency for La Niña to follow strong El Niño events."

As usual, exactly what all of this means . . . . ????  As X-Air points out, the only certain way to find out is to live through the next year - assuming of course it isn't interrupted by the Second Coming! (https://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/Angelic_smiley_small.gif)

Edouard