Dear WeatherCat drought sufferers,
The Climate Prediction Center has put out its latest forecast regarding El Ni?o versus La Ni?a. You can read it here:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_oct2016/ensodisc.shtmlUnfortunately they are back to a La Ni?a watch. The synopsis reads:
La Ni?a is favored to develop (~70% chance) during the Northern Hemisphere fall 2016 and slightly favored to persist (~55% chance) during winter 2016-17
Moreover they cite the following data:
ENSO-Neutral conditions were observed during September, with negative sea surface temperatures (SSTs) anomalies expanding across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean by early October (Fig. 1). All of the Ni?o regions cooled considerably during late September and early October, with the latest weekly value of Ni?o-3.4 index at -0.9?C (Fig. 2). Subsurface temperature anomalies also decreased toward the end of the month (Fig. 3), reflecting the strengthening of below-average temperatures at depth in the east-central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 4). Atmospheric anomalies across the equatorial Pacific edged toward La Ni?a during September, with a stronger tendency toward La Ni?a late in the month.
So whatever La Ni?a means in your corner of the world, you should probably prepare for it.
FYI, . . . . . Edouard