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NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Winter 2019

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elagache:
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

The new year has arrived and here is the 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the start of Autumn.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for January:



This prediction is back to the typical above normal theme that is found on these predictions.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for January through March:



All I can say is "ditto."  Only regions of the South might be colder than normal.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for January:



This prediction isn't nearly as optimistic for the western United States as the previous predictions.  While the Southwest gets some El Ni?o benefit, the rest remains uncertain.  Once more there is a prediction of increased rain in the old South.

Here is the equivalent graph for January to March:



The increased rain in the Southwest deserts is consistent with El Ni?o.  I don't know what is the basis for the rain continuing across the rest of the South into the Atlantic seaboard.

Here are drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for January:



This prediction is of significant reversals into drought for a large swath of the West.

Here is the equivalent 3 month outlook:



This predicts continued hardship for Oregon and the Arizona New Mexico boarder regions.  The remainder of the regions are supposed to see an improvement in their drought situations.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

Blicj11:
Today's low temperature here was -13?F (-25?C), so the first day of the new forecast period started in the opposite direction of the forecast.

elagache:
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

February is here and here is the 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the middle of Winter.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for February:



This is very different with a large band of cold expected from the Pacific covering a large part of the northern tier states.  Southern parts would be warmer in a region surrounding Florida.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for February through April:



The 3 month forecast is rather more typical of the Climate Predication Center.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for February:



This is a claim that it will be wet February for most of the country.  We'll see if this pans out.

Here is the equivalent graph for February to April:



This is a much more hesitant forecast with most of the country with an equal chance of the 3 possible outcomes.

Here are drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for February:



This predication is definitely bad news for Oregon and Nevada.  Everyone else should be in better shape.

Here is the equivalent 3 month outlook:



This prediction reverses the February gains for large areas in the West.  Only parts of Idaho and Washington state see relief.  There is also a part of Florida that is expected to get some relief from drought.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

Blicj11:
Thanks for sharing. Regarding drought: The Colorado River water use reduction agreement that failed to materialize last week because California did not submit a water reduction plan means that the Feds will be in charge of this important western water source instead of the 7 involved states. Bad move from the PRK (Peoples Republic of Kalifornia).

elagache:
Dear Blick and WeatherCat victims of those who prefer to repeat the mistakes of history,


--- Quote from: Blicj11 on February 01, 2019, 11:43:39 PM ---. . . . .
Bad move from the PRK (Peoples Republic of Kalifornia).

--- End quote ---

Alas, if that was the only bad move of the PRK, things wouldn't be to dire.  I remember my studies at the University of California, Berkeley.  Being on campus wasn't fun, but trying to cope with the city of Berkeley was a real horror.  I especially hated driving there - the roads were in such horrible condition.  Yet, the Berkeley city counsel was so preoccupied by world politics that the condition of the city that they were supposed to be governing was "unimportant" by comparison. 

The lunacy of Berkeley spread to San Francisco and Oakland.  Eventually it infected the state government and does the exact opposite of the political premise: there is governmental stalemate even if the Democratic party has complete control of the government.  There are plenty desperate problems that California needs to tackle, but California's politicians are "too busy" to be bothered by them.  Worse still, the voters don't seem to care even if they are the ones facing water rationing, horrible roads, and crippled electrical grid.

I used to be proud to have been born in California.  I'm definitely ashamed of it now.  No time like the present for the second coming!

Oh well, . . . . Edouard  :(

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