Author Topic: A example study of why the public is distrustful of climate change.  (Read 2907 times)

elagache

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Dear WeatherCat climate research observers,

There was an odd bit of controversy over a study published in the weekly journal Nature.  The title is: Recent improvement and projected worsening of weather in the United States and you can read the abstract here:

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v532/n7599/full/nature17441.html

In a nutshell the authors claim that the public in the United States have shown little interest in climate change because in their experience, the weather has been actually improving.

Well, this is precisely the sort of study that should make everyone angry, for multiple reasons.

For starters, this study used a very strange methodology.  It took the weather data for the past 40 years and then ran it through some algorithms that are supposed to mimic the way humans respond to the weather conditions.  According to those algorithms, the winters have been milder which people like and the summers haven't heated up too much yet - which people also like.  Therefore, according to these simulations - people should be happier with the weather.

Well, the authors of the study didn't interview any actual human beings to confirm the accuracy of the algorithms.  That seems to be a glaring oversight.  Moreover, exactly what is the utility of attempting to model human experiences of weather over the past 40 years?

What seems obvious is that this was an easy study to perform and it was the sort of thing that clearly fell into a particular political agenda.  Is this the sort of thing that the public wants academia to be spending our money on?

Sadly it demonstrates what I have seen during my time as an academic.  Science isn't a sort of truth revealing machine.  Instead science is practiced by human beings and those human beings have the same needs everyone else does - including making sure you have a paycheck.  If you can find funding to do a study like this and journals are willing to publish it - that's one more paycheck.

Science has never been a kind of logical calculus that worked apart from human intentions.  However, as universities, research centers, and industry increasing functioned within western capitalist system, the priorities have shifted, as they have to, so that these institutions have the money to sustain themselves.

Should the public be concerned - absolutely.  There is no system of check and balances in place to make sure that ideas that are "sexy" (i.e. for which funding can be found) can distort our understanding.  By the same token, ideas that aren't accepted by the mainstream of academics is far less likely to get the necessary investment of time and effort to confirm or deny them.  No scientist ever has the objective "God's eye view" no matter how rigorous to scientific method he or she may be.  However, it is clear that today producing "facts" is much more of a business than a disciplined and disinterested quest for truth.

Edouard


xairbusdriver

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Re: A example study of why the public is distrustful of climate change.
« Reply #1 on: April 24, 2016, 03:53:51 AM »
I'm assuming that there will also be follow up reports concerning the 'feelings' of people over 150 years old. The 'data' are a bit less accessible, OTOH, so are the people... Thank goodness for 'algorithms'! Who says "psychics" can't speak to the dead?! Apparently those people can still vote in many places, so why shouldn't they be included in the climate "studies"?! [banghead] [rolleyes2]
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Blicj11

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Re: A example study of why the public is distrustful of climate change.
« Reply #2 on: April 24, 2016, 04:13:53 AM »
Well stated Edouard.
Blick


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Re: A example study of why the public is distrustful of climate change.
« Reply #3 on: April 24, 2016, 06:28:11 AM »
What Blick says, and that goes for Xair, too!
Herb

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Big Science is Broken
« Reply #4 on: April 25, 2016, 07:52:52 AM »
Here's an eye opening article into why Big Science is broken.

In a nutshell, it's become political and paid for. The general population isn't as stupid as politicians and the news media thinks it is. They know that there is too much politics in the climate "science" the UN peddles. Many people understand that it's just a massive redistribution scheme. The saddest part is, there may actually be some valid climate science, but it won't be heard over the din of scare mongering and grant money exchanging hands.

Another Earthday came and went, as did all the doom and gloom predictions that once again, were flat out wrong. Anyone remember Algore's countdown clock? When grant money pays people to find climate troubles, they find them! When hysterical scientists breathlessly worry about a computer model that shows trouble 50 to 100 years from now, the American public is smart enough to call BS. No, not that BS, but Big Science . . . and I feel it's broken.
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Weatheraardvark

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Re: A example study of why the public is distrustful of climate change.
« Reply #5 on: April 25, 2016, 03:34:40 PM »
When I was teaching, there were 2 Earth Science teachers in the high school.  Me and Steve.    I am the one with the graduate minor in geology and astronomy. Steve has science education.

When we got to the unit about climate change,   I gave examples and we discussed the serious impact we had on the environment, the impact and the probably very unhappy future due to what we are doing. That for nature to go back the other way, will take a very long time to do that, and the species that have died as a result of that , won't come back.   However we need to start now.

Steve on the other hand, came in to my room and said it is all bull shit.  That the climate always changes and just we are noticing it more now because of our technology is monitoring it, some thing that we didn't have before.  One one hand I agreed with him, and on the other I was upset.  So we began to argue in front of my class.  I then said  was it not important that we  start immediately changing our ways as not to accelerate this thing, that wasn't it in the best interests for the planet we do something. 

He wouldn't budge.  I think that is where a lot of the problems are.   We have teachers who live within their opinions, they don't read the journals or get into discussions.

We tend to go on road trips , the wife and me.   In Vermont area we saw solar farms.  Large areas of solar panels  gathering  free energy.
In Iowa, Mid American Energy is investing in wind farms.    For the farmer they get about  10,000 dollars rent on having one on their property,but it is a sure cash crop.

As you go in Iowa to the North and West,  you see more and more of the wind turbines and across the country, clean energy.

Elections?   Democrats bring up conservation and clean energy,  the Republicans say that reducing  fossil fuels will cost jobs and put people out of work.    Now go back to my original premise.  If teachers are saying that climate change at the rapid rate we are going is bull pucky,, then  ignorant, misinformed people are going to continue doing what they are doing.

Earth day one day of the year that we pick up trash along the roadside, put it in a plastic sack and bury it in the ground.    Earth day needs to be every day.  Going to Whole Foods, isn't going to cut it.

 [sun2]
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elagache

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Problems on both sides (Re: public is distrustful of climate change. )
« Reply #6 on: April 26, 2016, 12:22:01 AM »
Dear dfw, Weatheraardvark, and WeatherCat science observers,

As usual the plot is more complex than any one point of view can easily capture.

Here's an eye opening article into why Big Science is broken.

Yes science is broken, but it is broken at a far more fundamental level.  It isn't the politics of government that is to blame, but the ugly process by which people are weeded out as the pursue higher education.  My example is as good as any.  I started out interested in using artificial intelligence to develop tools to help students learn.  I had an idea of having these tools on the periphery of learning.  The tools didn't have to be really smart in of themselves, but would have procedures that students needed to know and student could learn by watching the tools complete these simple procedures.  I could see that AI technology could handle these simple tasks and I could select learning opportunities that students should have been able to easily pick up.  How could I go wrong?

My pilot studies utterly failed.  Students weren't learning in the way the faculty told me they were supposed to.  To be precise, Cognitive Science wasn't capturing the learning process as they believed.  Ultimately I had to come up with a new PhD topic and a whole new view of how learning happened.  Because of offending the faculty by trying to use their theories and finding out they were wrong - i was basically thrown out.

It is a far more dangerous problem than the one you mention.  It is a self-sustaining status quo that makes new ideas very difficult to become established.  It is true that most academics are to the political left, but when it comes to their own survival they are extremely conservative and reject change.

We tend to go on road trips , the wife and me.   In Vermont area we saw solar farms.  Large areas of solar panels  gathering  free energy.
In Iowa, Mid American Energy is investing in wind farms.    For the farmer they get about  10,000 dollars rent on having one on their property,but it is a sure cash crop.

As you go in Iowa to the North and West,  you see more and more of the wind turbines and across the country, clean energy.

Well sorry to differ, but this is misguided in its own way.  Solar and wind power is anything but free.  Both cost considerably more per megawatt than conventional power plants.  The infrastructure needs to be maintained and there is a lot of it.  More importantly neither is a 24/7 source of power.  Green energy hasn't found a balance such that our power grid can provide our energy needs when we want them.  The old rule of thumb was that no more than 30% of a power grill could come from intermittent sources like wind and solar.  California is already committed to much more than 30% and the power regulators are quietly expressing their concern.

Like so many things green energy is a perfectly valid power source with advantages and disadvantages.  Certainly, improvements in solar technology has brought about a wide variety of devices that are very useful.  Wind power has a place - no doubt.  But the physics and engineering of a power grid are what they are.  We have to respect what the experts say these systems can cope with and not ask more than that.  At the same time, green technology should see its own kind of "natural balance."  If you have looked at the wax and wane of solar power, clearly it isn't constant.  The maximum power is, not surprisingly, at noon.  Could industrial processes be adapted to produce their products within the limits of the solar power curve?  It seems like a problem worth trying to solve.

Science must be pursued with a disinterested discipline.  No changes we make to society should be made without a careful consideration of all the factors involved - including the economics of implementation.  That should be the path of a society guided by reason and rationality.  Is it the path we are taking?

Earth day one day of the year that we pick up trash along the roadside, put it in a plastic sack and bury it in the ground.    Earth day needs to be every day.  Going to Whole Foods, isn't going to cut it.

Back in the 1970s when I was going up, my family tried to reuse things that we got for free like grocery bags.  As a child of the 1970s I knew never to litter - no matter how inconvenient the alternative.  Starting last year, cities in California passed laws requiring people to use reusable bags.  The reason - people are littering and those bags are getting into the environment.  Now can you explain to me why in 2010 anybody still litters, if in 1970 I already knew not to?  If in 2010 people still litter, will they stop because they use flimsy reusable bags?

In the meantime, my family has been forced to try to find inexpensive sources for plastic and paper bags that we used to gladly reuse.

Is punishing the responsible person, while having very little effect on the irresponsible litterbug, the best environmentally friendly laws we can come up with?

As I have said, things are rarely what they seem to be.

Edouard

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Re: A example study of why the public is distrustful of climate change.
« Reply #7 on: April 26, 2016, 10:06:35 PM »
Quote
we pick up trash along the roadside, put it in a plastic sack and bury it in the ground.
I've been extremely busy the last few days; yard work, yard trash (not mine, btw) disposal, computer crashing, etc. But when Edouard repeated this text, I was reminded of my reaction when I first read it. ;)

I can first hope that the "plastic sack" is biodegradable. Unfortunately, in this case, that will simply bury the probably not biodegradable "trash" in the disappearing areas we call "landfills" or worse yet, "hiding" the trash in our oceans! Even in this 'backwater' town on the Mighty Muddy, every city in the county has a recycling system. It is not often that we hear of a community asking that we bring them our smelly, discarded items, and trash, "sacked" or not. Many 'recycling' operations generate their own power needs from their 'gifts'. Not sure that is included in "green" energy, but it removes some load on the "grid"!

My solution for the Sun/Wind power failing the 24/7 test is simple. Use solar panels to charge a huge collection of batteries during the day (even cloudy conditions can still generate some power). Use those batteries to drive large fans aimed at the wind generators at night! [tup]

Often, the simplest solution is also the best. I rest my case!

NEXT!
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elagache

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Dear X-Air and WeatherCat "survivalists,"

My solution for the Sun/Wind power failing the 24/7 test is simple. Use solar panels to charge a huge collection of batteries during the day (even cloudy conditions can still generate some power). Use those batteries to drive large fans aimed at the wind generators at night! [tup]

Well just in case you need to charge up your Tesla as well, Elon Musk is working on lithium-ion batteries that could easily store the power needed to keep your house going and even recharge your car.  The starting price is around $10,000 and that doesn't include the extensive rewiring of your house so that you could actually cope with the electrical grid failing.

However before you jump into this green technology, the production of things like solar voltaic cells and lithium-ion batteries involve toxic chemicals.  Badly manufactured products of this kind could leach those chemicals and potentially create a serious health problem.  30 years ago, the worst nuclear accident occurred at Chernobyl.  It is estimated that as many as 4000 people will die ultimately (the count of confirmed dead stands at less than 500.)  If a large number of solar cells or lithium-ion batteries were incorrectly manufactured and released their chemicals around people's homes - could 4000 die?  It doesn't seem out of the question especially with many of these products being manufactured overseas and a very strong pressure to keep prices as low as possible.

So is green energy "Chernobyl proof?"  There is certainly no conclusive way to prove that.  If it isn't, is green energy truly safer than nuclear power?  The public perception is that green technology clearly is.  However that perception clearly is not based on an actual understanding of these complex technologies. Instead people feel that they intuitively "understand" these technologies - but is this even true?  To understand an electric solar panel requires understanding Einstein's photoelectric effect.  Understanding how a wind turbine actually works involves a lot of mechanics and electricity.  For the general public it is mostly a "hope" that green energy is safer, and obviously, hoping that things are safe is no way guarantee safety.

So in the end, the public remains dependent on those technocrats of whom they remain distrustful.  The public has spoken and some technocrats have been dethroned and new ones anointed - what makes the new technocrats any more trustworthy?

In the end our fate depends very much on the "litterbugs" in a general sense: people who break the rules when nobody is looking.  The nuclear power industry has a exemplary safety record, but when people have not done their job correctly - disasters has happened.  Green technology isn't magical, it is simply another technology dependent on competent and skilled people doing their jobs correctly.  No industry is immune to the "litterbug syndrome" and some green energy companies have collapsed by promising more than they could actually deliver.

Given this increasing lapse in moral fortitude, we must be vigilant that any technology is implemented to the best safety and performance standards the industry is aware of.  One thing is certain, there is only thing worse than doing nothing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions: that would be to attempt to reduce greenhouse gas emissions with flawed technologies and failing.

Cheers, Edouard