Author Topic: Monthly reports for the Northern California 2015-16 rainy season.  (Read 2210 times)

elagache

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Dear WeatherCat drought watchers,

As last year, I thought I would keep track of rainfall at my station in the San Francisco East Bay.  November was the first month with significant rainfall, so the first opportunity to see how the 2015-16 wet season was progressing.  Alas, my intuitions have been thus far validated:



This November we have only received 46% of what would be considered normal rainfall.  Since the earlier months were also drier than normal, thus far we have only received 33% of what would have been expected in the period July to November.

The claims remain that El Niņo will still rescue California and the west, but for the moment the drought continues . . . .

Oh well, . . . . Edouard

elagache

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December's report . . . (Re: Northern California 2015-16 rainy season. )
« Reply #1 on: January 01, 2016, 12:03:14 AM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

December was the first month in the 2015-16 California wet season where rainfall exceeded seasonal averages - providing almost 1-1/2 times a normal December's rainfall.  That certainly helped the overall rainfall picture:



The autumn has been so dry that the bounty wasn't enough to bring us back to normal.  For the July to December period we are at 75% of normal.  Still that's a huge improvement over the 33% of normal that was the situation for July to November.

The big question remains whether El Niņo will bring its bounty or not.  We are expecting a wet first full week of 2016 - that's a start!

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]

elagache

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January's report (Re: Northern California 2015-16 rainy season. )
« Reply #2 on: January 31, 2016, 10:53:07 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

I had hoped for some rain today, but it went south (literally) so there no reason not to compile the data for January.  It was another good month for northern California:



We got over 1-1/2 times the normal rainfall for January and that was enough to bring to a scant 8% above normal for a period July-January.

Alas, there is definitely a menacing forecast for the moment.  Only nuisance rain expected this week and the NWS climate prediction center has mysteriously predicted below normal rainfall through mid-February.   Since February is almost as wet as January, this could send the area back into drought territory in a hurry.  Hopefully the forecast won't be correct, but it is enough to make me nervous . . . .

Edouard

elagache

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February's numbers (Re: Reports for the Northern CA 2015-16 rainy season.)
« Reply #3 on: February 29, 2016, 11:30:14 PM »
Dear WeatherCat drought watchers,

Alas the menacing forecasts noted in the previous post on this thread came to pass and February turned out to be an extremely dry month for Northern California:



We received less than 23% of a normal February's rainfall at Canebas weather station.

The overall numbers aren't horrible yet.  We are at 87% of a normal winter's rainfall to the end of February.  With storms lining up in the Pacific to dump rain on the west starting this weekend, March is looking promising. Unfortunately, we definitely have some serious catching up to do.

Cheers, Edouard

elagache

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March's report (Re: Northern California 2015-16 rainy season. )
« Reply #4 on: March 31, 2016, 11:27:41 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

March was a complete reversal from February here in the San Francisco Bay area.  At Canebas weather station we got 8.63" of rain (219mm).  It was more than double the normal rainfall for March and more than compensated for the shortfall in February.  The is the graph at the end of March:



However, the news isn't as good as it appears.  While we are within 2% of a normal rainfall year already, most of that rain fell in a very extreme period during the first 2 weeks of March.  That rainfall did a lot of damage and most of that water was back in the Pacific within a very short period of time.  During the second 1/2 of March there have been several periods of above normal temperatures that forced me to resume watering.  The rainy season isn't over yet, perhaps El Niņo will provide a few more periods significant rainfall.  What is clear is that California (and probably most of the western United States) aren't prepared to change their water collection strategies to take advantage of rainfall when it comes.  Politicians are quick to take advantage of the short memories of the voters.  Will the voters decide change is needed?  Only time will tell. . . . . .

Edouard

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April's report (Re: Northern California 2015-16 rainy season. )
« Reply #5 on: April 30, 2016, 11:03:58 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Here is the April rainfall observations at my humble weather station.  We ended up picking up 1.44 inches of rain here which is 88% of normal - I assume that's within one standard deviation so call it normal.  After the torrent of rain in March that is enough to nominally kick us over a normal wet season for 2015-16:



Even if we get no more rain, we are 7% above normal at this point.

At the moment there is at least one more rain event forecast for the next of next week.  Alas, the quantity of rain is finally falling behind what the plants need.  Unless we get a more substantial storm soon, we have made the transition into the dry season - which means it is watering season.  Oh well, just one more chore I've gotta do . . . .

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]

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Final report (Re: Northern California 2015-16 rainy season. )
« Reply #6 on: July 02, 2016, 12:28:41 AM »
Dear WeatherCat drought watchers,

It is July 1 the beginning of a new wet season as California has done it for decades.  So time to take one last look at the 2015-2016 rainy season:



Rainfall in May was well below normal and June brought zero rainfall at all, so the dry season got off to hot and difficult start.  We ended up with a few percent above a normal rainy season, but obviously that leaves the drought more or less where it was.

Stay tuned for the 2016-17 season . . . . what does La Niņa hold in store? . . . .

Cheers, Edouard