Author Topic: Highlights from Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season  (Read 10092 times)

Bull Winkus

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Re: Highlights from Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season
« Reply #15 on: January 20, 2016, 10:16:25 PM »
It's a Minecraft tree. They come apart in blocks.  [lol]

 [cheers1]
Herb

xairbusdriver

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Re: Highlights from Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season
« Reply #16 on: January 20, 2016, 10:31:17 PM »
Quote
It's a Minecraft tree. They come apart in blocks
Probably 64 bit 'words'?

Another question for enquiring minds; is your Console, which you show it that image (Post # 12), outside your house?

Or is it really only one degree 'warmer' inside (57°) than out (56°)?!  [cold1] If those are actually inside your home, I congratulate you for going well above and beyond in your attempt to lower your use of oil/gas/electricity and for supporting the clothing industry! ;)

elagache

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The demon high pressure ridge returns (Re: Northern CA 2015-16 rainy season)
« Reply #17 on: February 05, 2016, 11:14:48 PM »
Dear WeatherCat western United States drought waters,

There is an extremely ominous development here in California - the rain has stopped.  Worse it has stopped in exactly the same way it has did in 2015 and 2013.  A strong ridge of high pressure has pushed the storm track way to the north - negating any benefit that El Niño might provide.  The month is only 5 days old, but the extended forecasts are absolutely horrible.  No rain is expected through the middle of the month and the 8-14 day outlook by the climate prediction center is below normal - that leads to February 19th.  February is the second wettest month for my station at: 4.75" almost 20% of our total rainfall.  If we don't at least keep up with our normal pace of rainfall, surely we fall back into the misery of drought.

This morning the Monterey office of the National Weather Service made the worries official.  The following paragraph was part of the morning discussion:

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Ridge stays in place through most of next week suggesting dry    conditions and near normal temps. Latest long range trends are now trending dry through next weekend with some concern as the GFS runs out through 15 days are looking drier and drier with a ridge along the West Coast. From a drought perspective we don't want to lose February for rain and mountain snow. CFS climate model shows March as above normal in relation to the ongoing El Niño.

I fear that everyone in the western United States should view this situation with alarm and worry.  What had looked so promising to ease our suffering may yet let us down.  . . . .

Edouard

Blicj11

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Re: Highlights from Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season
« Reply #18 on: February 06, 2016, 12:00:05 AM »
Hate to see this. We've have a good snow pack replenishment so far, but our 10-day forecast here, after 3 inches of snow early this morning, calls for clear, sunny skies. Not what we need!
Blick


elagache

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Hoping for a change (Re: Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season )
« Reply #19 on: February 06, 2016, 10:05:49 PM »
Dear Blick and WeatherCat western US drought sufferers,

Hate to see this. We've have a good snow pack replenishment so far, but our 10-day forecast here, after 3 inches of snow early this morning, calls for clear, sunny skies. Not what we need!

Sadly, this high pressure ridge is continuing to behave as it has in past years and if it does really become stagnant everyone in the west will suffer.  The GFS model is trying to break down the ridge starting next weekend but the European and Canadian models don't produce this solution.  All we can do is wait and hope.

Edouard

TechnoMonkey

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Re: First real storm of the year!! (Re: Northern CA's 2015-16 rainy season)
« Reply #20 on: February 07, 2016, 01:24:30 AM »
Dear WeatherCat drought watchers,

Well, October was essentially a complete bust, but November is off to a nice start in northern California.  The promised storm of last night was indeed just the right size, not too much water that could cause damage, but enough to get the ground thoroughly wet and wash down the dust and debris.  Here is the storm as recorded by my WC Storm Monitor AppleScript (I've relocated the growl notifications to read normally one column at a time from left to right.)



The rainfall rates were sufficient to penetrate even very dense trees, so everything truly got wet.  The total rainfall is 0.65" (16.5mm) to this moment.  There was even enough runoff to start refilling the creeks:



This creek has been completely dry since late June, so the wildlife will be very happy to have that water source back.

Now the only problem is where is the next storm.  Thus far nothing expected through the 7 day forecast, but the pattern does seem more winter-like all of a sudden.  We'll see.

Cheers, Edouard

I noticed that you have 11.0 mph winds considered as high winds. ???  That is a gentle breeze.  Here on the Gulf coast, we do not consider winds high until they reach 20-25 mph with gusts to 35-40 mph.

elagache

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Anenometer not well placed (Re: Northern CA's 2015-16 rainy season)
« Reply #21 on: February 07, 2016, 11:25:51 PM »
Dear TechnoMonkey and WeatherCat less than ideal station owners,

I noticed that you have 11.0 mph winds considered as high winds. ???  That is a gentle breeze.  Here on the Gulf coast, we do not consider winds high until they reach 20-25 mph with gusts to 35-40 mph.

You would be correct if I could get good wind data, but my location makes that impossible.  My station isn't like this exactly but here is the write-up on Canebas weather station 1.0.

http://athena.trixology.com/index.php?topic=969.msg8478#msg8478

I'm in the shadow of a steep hill with tall trees at the summit.  So what wind does reach us is minimal.  I set the values for WC Storm Monitor based on what the national weather service calls a wind event.  It's purpose isn't to provide data for meteorologists (since it can't,) instead it is to give me some idea of the potential for property damage.  Since strong winds are rare, that criteria is sufficient to get to run around and make sure we don't have something that could blow around.  Normally that simply isn't an issue.

Cheers, Edouard

elagache

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February heat wave . . (Re: Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season )
« Reply #22 on: February 09, 2016, 12:09:58 AM »
Dear WeatherCat drought watchers, . . . .

Definitely not getting the sort of weather I want for February.  Today's high was 70.8˚.  I'm sure some record highs fell.  We have a strong off-shore flow and gusty wind.  It is the equivalent of a Santa Ana condition for Northern California and the effect is to dry out the soil very rapidly.  The moisture that was so hard won is disappearing from the upper parts of the soil and things will continue to dry in this heat.

Temperatures are supposed to moderate for the second half of the week, but no significant change in the weather pattern is so far being suggested by the forecast models.

Oh well, . . . . . Edouard

HantaYo

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Re: February heat wave . . (Re: Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season )
« Reply #23 on: February 10, 2016, 02:24:29 PM »
Dear WeatherCat drought watchers, . . . .

Definitely not getting the sort of weather I want for February.  Today's high was 70.8˚.  I'm sure some record highs fell.  We have a strong off-shore flow and gusty wind.  It is the equivalent of a Santa Ana condition for Northern California and the effect is to dry out the soil very rapidly.  The moisture that was so hard won is disappearing from the upper parts of the soil and things will continue to dry in this heat.

Temperatures are supposed to moderate for the second half of the week, but no significant change in the weather pattern is so far being suggested by the forecast models.

Oh well, . . . . . Edouard

Heat is here in Colorado too.  My snow pack has gone from 18" last week to 6" this morning.  We hit a high of 54°F yesterday.  5 day forecast is more of the same.  This is more like middle of March weather   [sweat2]

elagache

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Rain back in forecast (Re: Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season )
« Reply #24 on: February 11, 2016, 12:19:38 AM »
Dear HantaYo and WeatherCat drought watchers,

Heat is here in Colorado too.  My snow pack has gone from 18" last week to 6" this morning.  We hit a high of 54°F yesterday.  5 day forecast is more of the same.  This is more like middle of March weather   [sweat2]

Sorry to hear that.  The forecast is looking a bit better with a chance of rain starting a week from today.  Also the outlooks from the Climate Predication Center aren't so gloomy for northern California.  I sure wish these so called climate experts would come to understand this winter ridging phenomenon.  If it is a permanent feature of winter weather than what we call drought would become the new normal.  It is really important to understand why this is happening.

Oh well, . . . Edouard

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Re: Highlights from Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season
« Reply #25 on: February 11, 2016, 12:51:31 AM »
Same in Utah. We lost a foot of snowpack over the past couple of days and made it to 50° F today.
Blick


HantaYo

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Re: Highlights from Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season
« Reply #26 on: February 12, 2016, 01:31:19 PM »
Quote
The forecast is looking a bit better with a chance of rain starting a week from today.

Similar here with snow possibility next Thursday.  Looks like highs in the upper 40s and low 50s until then.  My local weather model called AVIAN has flown the coop to colder environs- until the Rosy Finches return it will be hot and dry.

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I sure wish these so called climate experts would come to understand this winter ridging phenomenon.  If it is a permanent feature of winter weather than what we call drought would become the new normal.  It is really important to understand why this is happening.

I wonder if this phenomenon is why the climate models show the southwest drying out?  The prediction is El Nino like conditions to become permanently  established and it just did not make sense, considering past El Nino events, that the southwest would dry out.

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Same in Utah. We lost a foot of snowpack over the past couple of days and made it to 50° F today.
Well for my CoCoRAHs snow depth report I'll have to call a trace of snow depth real soon.  Bare ground is popping up all over the place.  See what this morning looks like.

elagache

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CPC forecast pessmistic for Feb. (Re: Northern CA's 2015-16 rainy season )
« Reply #27 on: February 12, 2016, 10:20:09 PM »
Dear HantaYo, Blick, and Western US drought watchers,

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The forecast is looking a bit better with a chance of rain starting a week from today.

Similar here with snow possibility next Thursday.  Looks like highs in the upper 40s and low 50s until then.  My local weather model called AVIAN has flown the coop to colder environs- until the Rosy Finches return it will be hot and dry.

Alas, if the NWS Climate Prediction Center is correct, the rain of next week is all we shall get for the remainder of the month of February.  If so, that would put us around 20% behind normal rainfall once more.

I wonder if this phenomenon is why the climate models show the southwest drying out?  The prediction is El Nino like conditions to become permanently  established and it just did not make sense, considering past El Nino events, that the southwest would dry out.

This recurrent winter ridge of high pressure will most certainly dry out the west and especially the southwest.  However, I've never seen an explanation of - why - this ridge is forming now in winter.  It is certainly something that is new and remarkably stable.  There has been this sort of ridging during the winter months for I believe 4 years in a row.  It doesn't completely shut down the storm systems, but it does make storms much less frequent and as a result, the only way to catch up is with periods of extremely wet storms.  That is what happened in 2014.  At the moment this maybe what will have to happen this year in order to avoid a serious water shortfall.

Oh well, . . . . . Edouard

Blicj11

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Re: Highlights from Northern California's 2015-16 rainy season
« Reply #28 on: February 12, 2016, 11:42:54 PM »
We have an inch of snow projected for this Sunday and up to 3 inches predicted for Thursday. In the meantime, our high mountain valleys have incredibly bad inversions, which will only be cleared out by the snowstorms so I am hoping they happen as forecast. I heard on the radio today that California had a mostly normal winter and is back to dry now. Sorry Edouard.
Blick


elagache

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Normal totals - not climate (Re: Northern CA's 2015-16 rainy season )
« Reply #29 on: February 13, 2016, 10:07:59 PM »
Dear Blick and WeatherCat drought watchers,

We have an inch of snow projected for this Sunday and up to 3 inches predicted for Thursday. In the meantime, our high mountain valleys have incredibly bad inversions, which will only be cleared out by the snowstorms so I am hoping they happen as forecast.

Well, I"m glad that you are seeing a change in the weather pattern.

I heard on the radio today that California had a mostly normal winter and is back to dry now. Sorry Edouard.

Well, I think northern California has ended up with close to normal rainfall totals, but the south has been drier than normal which is not what is expected for El Niño.  Also the rainfall hasn't been falling in a way that is normal for the north.  Autumn was drier than normal and we basically caught up because of extra rain in December and January.

Indeed we are suffering from this demon high pressure ridge.  However, the forecast models are continuing to show it will be broken down later this week and the models aren't showing the ridge immediately rebuilding after all.  The moisture taps that El Niño generates should still be out there.  In the past, El Niño has tended to produce two episodes of heavy rain: at the start of winter and the start of spring.  If that pattern holds up, the West may eek out at least partial relief from the drought.

Nonetheless, there is something really weird going on here.  It does look ominously like processes of climate change are already underway.  This is where climate science really needs to step up to the plate and inform society of what we can realistically expect.  Without better predictions of what to expect in the future - we are stuck with nothing more than hoping for precipitation and that clearly isn't enough to make it happen.

Edouard