Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,
It may be a new year, but
Da' Usual Suspects are still at it. As is their tradition, they have issued another communique on the second Thursday of the month. You can read it here:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtmlThe synopsis reads as follows:
"El Niño is expected to continue for the next several seasons, with ENSO-neutral favored during April-June 2024 (73% chance)."What is meant by "several seasons" is a bit baffling to me. At most it could mean only 2 seasons: winter and spring.
The discussion no longer mentions a strong El Niño. Indeed a sentence in the second paragraph reads:
"The most recent IRI plume indicates El Niño will gradually weaken and then transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024." Also to be found in the second paragraph is some wishful forecasting at least in my opinion:
"There are also increasing odds of La Niña in the seasons following a shift to ENSO-neutral."It isn't that these forecasts are particularly clear at best, but this forecast definitely left me rather uncertain as to what they are expecting.
Edouard