Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,
Here is the latest 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center. Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for October:
Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for October through December:
Just as through the summer, the Climate Prediction Center insists there exists a broad stable climatic feature in the northwestern part of the United States. As winter sets in they insist this band of warmer than normal temperatures will extend across most of the northern parts of the country. I just took a look at the September report from WeatherCat and once more the CPC forecast was wrong. We had an average high temperature of 80˚ F for September, a perfectly normal result. I have no idea what sort of forecasting methodology they are using, but they are now on their third straight month of incorrectly forecasting the temperature variations in coastal northern California.
Note the use in all these graphs the extensive presence
EC which stands for
Equal Chances of either above, below, or normal conditions. It is certainly odd, that the CPC can be so confident about some parts of the country, but admittedly clueless about immediately adjacent regions.
Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for October:
Here is the equivalent graph for October to December:
So, the Climate Prediction Center has put its reputation on the drought continuing in Northern California. That should trigger new rounds of water conservation efforts by the state. We'll see if the government trusts the CPC or not.
Since these posting seem to generate relatively low traffic, I'll post the data for November and December in this same thread. That should make the data a bit easier to find.
Cheers, Edouard
P.S. As always, I would be most interested how US
"WeatherCatters" are seeing the weather in their local corner. Is anybody seeing reliable climate forecasts from the NWS - Climate Prediction Center?