Trixology

Weather => General Weather Discussion => Topic started by: elagache on July 15, 2017, 10:19:39 PM

Title: A year without either an El Niño or a La Niña?
Post by: elagache on July 15, 2017, 10:19:39 PM
Dear WeatherCat Climate watchers,

Mid-summer is the first opportunity for use to get some idea of what we might expect in terms of El Niño or La Niña effects on our upcoming winter.  Well the prognosticators have weighed and the answer is - neutral!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

As the synopsis reads:

ENSO-neutral is favored (~50 to 55% chance) into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18

So does that mean we might have a "normal" winter this year?  I suppose we could always hope (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/pray.gif) , but I sure wouldn't count on it! (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/eek-sign.gif)

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: La Niña watch? (Re: El Niño or La Niña? )
Post by: elagache on September 16, 2017, 10:46:26 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Earlier this summer, the Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWSand the International Research Institute for Climate and Society folks had predicted a neutral year with neither an El Niño or La Niña event.  Well things have changed and we are now under a La Niña watch.  Here is the report:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

Here is a quote for the most relevant bit:

Quote
A majority of the models in the IRI/CPC suite of Niño-3.4 predictions favor ENSO-neutral through the Northern Hemisphere 2017-18 winter [Fig. 6]. However, the most recent predictions from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) and the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) indicate the formation of La Niña as soon as the Northern Hemisphere fall 2017 [Fig. 7]. Forecasters favor these predictions in part because of the recent cooling of surface and sub-surface temperature anomalies, and also because of the higher degree of forecast skill at this time of year. In summary, there is an increasing chance (~55-60%) of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

The past few La Niña events have caused atmospheric rivers to become more intense and has brought a lot of moisture to the Western United States.  For those who forgot, last year was a La Niña:

http://athena.trixology.com/index.php?topic=2221.msg22663#msg22663 (http://athena.trixology.com/index.php?topic=2221.msg22663#msg22663)

So we may be in for another wet winter.

We'll just have to wait and see . . . . . .

Cheers, Edouard
Title: Re: La Niña watch? (Re: El Niño or La Niña? )
Post by: Blicj11 on September 24, 2017, 06:41:00 AM
So we may be in for another wet winter.

Sign me up.
Title: Beware of what you wish for . . . . (Re: La Niña watch?)
Post by: elagache on September 24, 2017, 10:14:25 PM
Dear Blick and WeatherCat Western US drought flood? watchers?!?!??

So we may be in for another wet winter.

Sign me up.

I certainly don't want the drought to start up again, but the rains definitely did a lot of damage around here.  The roads have suffered a lot because of the extremes of the soil.  In the middle of the rains the ground swelled a great deal and now with the very hot and dry summer, the ground has contracted to another extreme.  California rode out last winter mostly in stride, but our luck might not hold out if we get battered by a series of atmospheric rivers again.

I sure wish moderation would once more return to "climatological fashion."

Grin and bear it!  Edouard
Title: La Niña watch for another month. (Re: El Niño or La Niña? )
Post by: elagache on October 16, 2017, 11:38:35 PM
Dear WeatherCat types affected by El Niño and/or La Niña,

The CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society have updated their El Niño /La Niña predictions and we continue to be under a La Niña watch.  Here is the full briefing:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The punch-line is: "La Niña conditions are favored (~55-65%) during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18."

This is further bolstered by the puzzling technical jargon to be found in the discussion for the first storm expected for this year on Thursday.  The offending sentence reads as follows (key text with my emphasis) :

"IVT progs are focusing on Thursday evening being the best shot for moderate rainfall (coverage has decreased, but a narrow band of values over 500 KG/m/s are now indicated)."

To those who forgot from last year - IVT stands for Integrated Water Vapor Transport and Kg/m/s is a measure of how much water vapor is being transported.  In other words, by decoding the technical jargon, it is clear that there was already the possibility for an atmospheric river event this early in October.  The forecast has since downgraded the potential rainfall, but those of you in harm's way of atmospheric rivers might want to start preparing . . . . . just in case! . . . (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/eek-sign.gif)

Cheers, Edouard
Title: Re: La Niña watch for another month. (Re: El Niño or La Niña? )
Post by: Blicj11 on October 17, 2017, 07:00:22 PM
The forecast has since downgraded the potential rainfall, but those of you in harm's way of atmospheric rivers might want to start preparing . . . . . just in case! . . . (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/eek-sign.gif)

I am preparing the ark.
Title: Is that why you are into computers? (Re: El Niño or La Niña? )
Post by: elagache on October 18, 2017, 12:31:49 AM
Dear "Noah"  ;) and WeatherCat "survivalists," . . . . .  [biggrin]

I am preparing the ark.

[wink] . . . Well if you are going to all that trouble, perhaps you should "supersize" the Biblical dimensions for your ark, since it seems that we have identified quite a few more species than the Old Testament would have suggested.  You also probably need all your binary math skills you can muster so you count all those animals one and then two to make sure you have a pair!! . . . .  lol(1)

Cheers, Edouard  [biggrin]
Title: It's official: a La Niña Advisory. (Re: El Niño or La Niña? )
Post by: elagache on November 13, 2017, 12:06:20 AM
Dear WeatherCat climate observers,

Those folks at the Climate Predication Center and and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society have made if official.  We are now under a La Niña Advisory:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The summary reads:  "La Niña conditions are predicted to continue (~65-75% chance) at least through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18. "

The key points of discussion can be summarized as follows:

" During October, weak La Niña conditions emerged as reflected by below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

. . . .

For the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18, a weak La Niña is favored in the model averages of the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] and also in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) [Fig. 7]. The consensus of forecasters is for the event to continue through approximately February-April 2018. In summary, La Niña conditions are predicted to continue (~65-75% chance) at least through the Northern Hemisphere winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period). "


So for all of you affected by La Niña events, the next question is to figure out exactly what do La Niña event actually does to your location.  There was a time when La Niñas caused drought in the Western United States.  However, between the fact that last year as also a La Niña and the current forecast for the rest of November, I decided to clean the storm drains this afternoon.  Alas, of course they needed more cleaning than I had hoped. (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/sigh_bubble.gif)  When it comes to home maintenance, the work is never done . . . .

Oh well, . . . . . Edouard
Title: La Niña Advisory for another month (Re: El Niño or La Niña? )
Post by: elagache on December 20, 2017, 11:07:35 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate observers,

Those folks at the Climate Predication Center and and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society have an update on the El Niño or La Niña situation:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The summary reads:  "La Niña is likely (exceeding ~80%) through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18, with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely during the mid-to-late spring."

The key points of discussion can be summarized as follows:

"La Niña strengthened during the past month, as indicated by an increasingly prominent pattern of below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean

. . . .

La Niña is predicted to persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18 by nearly all models in the IRI/CPC plume and in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME).


. . . .

La Niña is anticipated to affect temperature and precipitation across the United States during the upcoming months (the 3-month seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks will be updated on Thursday December 21st). The outlooks generally favor above-average temperatures and below-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, and below-average temperatures and above-median precipitation across the northern tier of the United States."


The expected effects of La Niña leave the center of the United States up for grabs.  Last year there is no doubt that rainfall was much above average for the Northern 1/2 of the Western United States.  Thus far, we are looking at drought conditions for all of the Western United States as far North as Washington state.  Alas, La Niña is Spanish for "the little girl," (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Ni%C3%B1a)  so I suppose we can only expect this weather phenomena to be "fickle." . . . . . .

Oh well, . . . . . Edouard
Title: Re: A year without either an El Niño or a La Niña?
Post by: Blicj11 on December 21, 2017, 02:13:04 AM
Thanks for the update Edouard.

It is snowing here as I type. Send more.
Title: La Niña fading away. (Re: El Niño or a La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on February 24, 2018, 10:48:23 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

There is another report on this year's weak La Niña:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The La Niña Advisory continues, but the forecast is that this won't last for much longer.  Here is the synopsis: 

Quote
A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is most likely during the Northern Hemisphere spring (~55% chance of ENSO-neutral during the March-May season).

Given how dry this Winter has been, perhaps that will allow for more normal precipitation during Spring.  We'll see . . . .

Cheers, Edouard
Title: La Niña not gone yet. (Re: El Niño or a La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on March 08, 2018, 11:28:19 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Today there was another report on La Niña from the the Climate Predication Center and and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The synopsis is very much like last month:

Quote
A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is most likely (~55% chance) during the March-May season, with neutral conditions likely to continue into the second half of the year.


However, the alert status is still: La Niña Advisory and according to the observed data:

Quote
During February 2018, La Niña weakened, but was still reflected by below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1].

So the predictions remain the same, but only time will tell if this month will be the end of La Niña or not.

Stay tuned!

Cheers, Edouard
Title: La Niña still hanging around. (Re: El Niño or a La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on April 16, 2018, 11:29:11 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

There is an update to the El Niño or a La Niña forecast. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

As you may remember the sea surface temperatures were supposed to return to neutral in the March-May time frame.  Well, here we are in April and the latest report announces:

Quote
During March 2018, La Niña continued to weaken, but was still reflected by below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1].

Nonetheless, the forecasters are sticking to their guns:

Quote
Most models in the IRI/CPC plume predict La Niña will decay and return to ENSO-neutral during the current March-May season [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus similarly favors a transition to neutral, with a continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions through the summer 2018.

Beyond that, well there isn't nearly as much enthusiasm to predict the future:

Quote
Thereafter, there is considerable forecast uncertainty, in part due to the lower prediction skill for forecasts made at this time of year.


 ;) . . . . . So continues the El Niño or a La Niña soap opera for 2018! . . . .  ;D

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: Re: A year without either an El Niño or a La Niña?
Post by: xairbusdriver on April 17, 2018, 01:41:08 AM
"Nonetheless, the forecasters are sticking to their guns" How can you be "consistent" if you keep changing your mind(s)?! If they pict the right forecast, they are bound to be correct, someday! For me, if I have a chance to change my mind, I usually do it right before my current opinion is confirmed!! [banghead] cmu:-) [rolleyes2] [blush]
Title: La Niña finally sent packing, but . . . . (Re: El Niño or a La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on May 14, 2018, 11:20:28 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

The Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society have issued (to quote:) their "Final La Niña Advisory."

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The critical bit of data is (once more I quote:) "During April 2018, the tropical Pacific returned to ENSO-neutral, as indicated by mostly near-to- below average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) along the equator."

However, just when you thought you could relax because things were back to "normal," the discussion goes on to say: "The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict ENSO-neutral to continue at least through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2018. As the fall and winter approaches, many models indicate an increasing chance for El Niño. Therefore, the forecaster consensus hedges in the direction of El Niño as the winter approaches, but given the considerable uncertainty in ENSO forecasts made at this time of year, the probabilities for El Niño are below 50%. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored through September-November 2018, with the possibility of El Niño nearing 50% by Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 . . . . ."

;) . . . . . So continues the El Niño or a La Niña soap opera for 2018 with every hope for a brand new season of foolishness for 2018-19!! . . . .  ;D

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: Re: A year without either an El Niño or a La Niña?
Post by: xairbusdriver on May 15, 2018, 01:08:32 AM
I think the key word in that “explanation” is hedges...
Title: Re: A year without either an El Niño or a La Niña?
Post by: Blicj11 on May 16, 2018, 01:19:32 AM
Their guess may be more scientific than mine, but mine is just as probable.
Title: Depends on da' coin! (Re: A year without either an El Niño or a La Niña? )
Post by: elagache on May 16, 2018, 10:04:46 PM
Dear Blick and WeatherCat gamblers on da' weather,

Their guess may be more scientific than mine, but mine is just as probable.

 [wink] . . . . Oh I dunno'  50% odds are simply a coin toss, but your odds are much better in a coin toss if you happen to sneak in a two-headed coin! . .  lol(1)

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: El Niño watch? (Re: El Niño or La Niña? )
Post by: elagache on July 07, 2018, 12:25:16 AM
Dear WeatherCat observers of El Niño and La Niña,

Just when you thought it was safe to turn your television back on - the El Niño La Niña soap opera is back!  The folks at the climate prediction center and friends have issued a El Niño watch on June 14th:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_jun2018/ensodisc.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_jun2018/ensodisc.shtml)

The punch line reads:

ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere summer 2018, with the chance for El Niño increasing to 50% during fall, and ~65% during winter 2018-19

The key text is as follows:

Quote
The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict ENSO-neutral to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2018, with El Niño most likely thereafter [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus favors the onset of El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere fall, which would then continue through winter. These forecasts are supported by the ongoing build-up of heat within the tropical Pacific Ocean. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere summer 2018, with the chance for El Niño increasing to 50% during fall, and ~65% during winter 2018-19 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

So what does this mean for us mere morals . . . . . . . who knows? (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/confused_do_no.gif)

Oh well, . . . . Edouard
Title: Re: A year without either an El Niño or a La Niña?
Post by: Blicj11 on July 07, 2018, 01:26:07 AM
Remember the old Saturday Night Live clips where Chris Farley translated Spanish into English for us?

"I am El Niño! All other tropical storms must bow before El Niño! ¡Yo soy El Niño! For those of you who don't habla español, 'El Niño' is Spanish for ... 'the Niño'!"
Title: Sticking to their El Niño prediction (Re: El Niño or a La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on August 03, 2018, 12:31:54 AM
Dear viewers of the El Niño or a La Niña soap opera,

The July update didn't make any headlines so I missed it until now.  However the forecast continues to be for a El Niño event for this autumn and winter.  Here is the link:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_jul2018/ensodisc.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_jul2018/ensodisc.shtml)

The summary reads as follows: "ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere summer 2018, with the chance for El Niño increasing to about 65% during fall, and to about 70% during winter 2018-19"

Wikipedia has a list of regional impacts based on overall research:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o#Regional_impacts (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o#Regional_impacts)

According to the same Wikipedia article, the recent El Niño events are listed here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o#Occurrences (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o#Occurrences)

The last two are the end of 2009-10 and 2014-15.  My station went up in October 2009, so I don't have the 2009-10 winter.  The 2014-15 event was the worst drought episode recorded by my station.

On the other hand, according to Wikipedia the La Niña events are:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Ni%C3%B1a#Occurrences (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Ni%C3%B1a#Occurrences)

That includes most of 2010 and 2016-17 wet years.  That is consistent with the overall observation that La Niña events bring additional rainfall to Northern California:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Ni%C3%B1a#North_America (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Ni%C3%B1a#North_America)

It seems to me that at least for Northern California, El Niño now brings droughts while La Niña events seem to intensify atmospheric rivers.  So depending on where you are in the Western United States, this could be another tough and dry winter.

Oh well, . . . . . Edouard
Title: Re: Sticking to their El Niño prediction (Re: El Niño or a La Niña?)
Post by: Blicj11 on August 03, 2018, 04:51:30 AM
It seems to me that at least for Northern California, El Niño now brings droughts while La Niña events seem to intensify atmospheric rivers.  So depending on where you

Just the kind of news we do not need. I'd rather hear about the Buick.
Title: Continued El Niño watch (Re: El Niño or a La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on August 26, 2018, 10:14:15 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

I've been so busy that I haven't been on the Climate Prediction Center website much.  As a result, I missed the August 9th update on El Niño.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The synopsis makes the key points:  "There is ~60% chance of El Niño in the Northern Hemisphere fall 2018 (September-November), increasing to ~70% during winter 2018-19. "

What caught my attention is that El Niño is already being blamed for the quiet Atlantic hurricane season.  There is a NOAA press release lowering number of expected storms:

http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-forecasters-lower-atlantic-hurricane-season-prediction (http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-forecasters-lower-atlantic-hurricane-season-prediction)

We are almost at the end of August so it does look like the  Atlantic hurricane season will be much quieter than last year's.  It is obvious that these changes in Pacific ocean temperatures have a global effect.  So wherever you live, try to brace as best you can for whatever El Niño brings to your corner of da' planet.

Oh well, . . . . . . Edouard
Title: Re: A year without either an El Niño or a La Niña?
Post by: Blicj11 on August 27, 2018, 05:50:27 PM
Thanks for the update. Yesterday I drove through a corridor of the Utah wildfires. Amazing amount of acreage burned and lots of smoke. Many of these fires may burn until it snows. If it snows.
Title: With a suitable apocalyptic spin . . . . (Re: El Niño or a La Niña? )
Post by: elagache on August 27, 2018, 11:30:58 PM
Dear Blick and WeatherCat "will somebody stop the world so can get out!" types, .. . . .

. . . . . . Many of these fires may burn until it snows. If it snows.

 [wink] . . . . . . Well, it might snow when . . . . . hell freezes over! . . .  lol(1)

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: Continued El Niño watch (Re: El Niño or a La Niña?)
Post by: elagache on October 13, 2018, 10:23:42 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

This week the experts on such things made their latest pronouncement on the El Niño - La Niña situation.  The El Niño Watch remains in effect as you can read here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The key points are as follows:  "The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict El Niño to form during the fall and continue through the winter. The official forecast favors the formation of a weak El Niño, consistent with the recent strengthening of westerly wind anomalies and positive temperature trends in the surface and subsurface ocean. In summary, El Niño is favored to form in the next couple of months and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (70-75% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period)."

Unfortunately exactly what this means for us mere inhabitants of planet Earth remains very much less clear.

Such are da' conditions that prevail, . . . . .

Cheers, Edouard
Title: Re: A year without either an El Niño or a La Niña?
Post by: Blicj11 on October 13, 2018, 11:06:06 PM
Here in the mountains of Northern Utah we have received an unprecedented 4.85 inches of precipitation since October 1. This is 4 times the monthly average and enough to reduce our area one status level in drought severity. Sure would be nice if this kept up although now nothing of the sort in the forecast.