Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,
Spring has officially sprung and here is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for Spring. Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for April:
There is an expectation of savage cold centered around the Great Lakes while the West is expected to warm up.
Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for April through June:
This outlook is even more pessimistic than last month. Thus, Caveat Emptor is appropriate.
Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for April:
This graph has been changing dramatically in the past week. Last week it had most of the West much below rainfall. So perhaps this too should be taken with a grain of salt especially with
"Atmospheric Rivers" back in the forecast for the Pacific coast.
Here is the equivalent graph for April to June:
This graph is also similar to last month's although the extremes are shifted over a bit. The drought is more focused on the West while the above normal rains would be further to the East.
Here are drought forecasts. Here is the drought outlook for April:
It shows that the droughts in the South have indeed mostly ended. It also indicates that the rains of March were sufficient to prevent drought from starting from the Sacramento delta and parts North. The one exception is a patch of Southeast Oregon which is supposedly going to see an improving drought situation.
Here is the equivalent 3 month outlook:
The 3 month outlook has drought holding steady in the Southwestern part of the United States and adds drought forming in the Southeast. Oddly drought in Southeastern Oregon returns. Drought the Dakotas is supposed to improve but apparently very slowly.
It appears that these forecasts may be placing a misguided confidence in the stability of climatology. The shorter-term outlooks paint a different picture that could overturn what has been forecast at the start of the month. Only time will tell.
As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . .
Edouard