Trixology

Weather => Observations => Topic started by: elagache on September 30, 2014, 09:47:23 PM

Title: Monthly reports for the Northern California 2014-15 rainy season.
Post by: elagache on September 30, 2014, 09:47:23 PM
Dear WeatherCat drought watchers,

For the northern hemisphere, we are moving into the autumn-winter wet season.  I decided to be a bit more systematic about reporting the rainfall at my weather station.  Here is the first report:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Orinda%20rainfall%202014-2015/Cum_rainfall_2014-2015_sept.jpg)

Comparison of observed rainfall at Canebas Weather station with seasonal averages for Orinda as reported by: idcide.com (http://www.idcide.com/weather/ca/orinda.htm).    Two unusual storms in September resulted in receiving our normal monthly rainfall.  However, some rain is expected in July and August so for the 2014-2015 wet season we are already behind by our cumulative normal rainfall by over 25%. 

I will archive the images so that they can be compared as the months evolve and I'll try to post a new entry here around the first of each new month.

I certainly encourage anyone else to start up threads like this recording the climatic conditions around their station.  I would be interesting if we could follow each others weather on a month by month basis.

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: Re: Monthly reports for the Northern California 2014-15 rainy season.
Post by: Blicj11 on October 01, 2014, 09:01:09 AM
Edouard:

What software are you using to produce your graph?
Title: Oh da' shame!!! (Re: Northern California 2014-15 rainy season. )
Post by: elagache on October 01, 2014, 10:00:57 PM
Dear Blick and WeatherCat victims of da' ol' evil empire . . . .

What software are you using to produce your graph?

Oh da' shame!! (http://www.canebas.org/Weather/LWC_forum/Custom_emoticons/hiding.gif)  How can I face my friends when I used Microshaft (un)Excel!!  (http://www.canebas.org/Weather/LWC_forum/Custom_emoticons/pout.gif)  It is part of Office 2011.

As much as I hate Excel it does have some very nice graphing options.  It is just extremely hard to use!  [banghead]

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: Re: Oh da' shame!!! (Re: Northern California 2014-15 rainy season. )
Post by: Blicj11 on October 01, 2014, 10:40:35 PM
How can I face my friends when I used Microshaft (un)Excel!!

Ha ha! I too am an Office for Mac junkie. I have tried twice to use Numbers and it's just not as powerful. I have converted to Pages for simple stuff, but complicated reports with footnotes are way simpler in Word.

I tried to re-create your graph with my data but can't quite figure out how you did it. Would you mind emailing (or PMing) me a copy of your spreadsheet? I like the layout.
Title: Sent! (Re: Northern California 2014-15 rainy season. )
Post by: elagache on October 02, 2014, 09:41:14 PM
Dear Blick and WeatherCat drought watchers,

I tried to re-create your graph with my data but can't quite figure out how you did it. Would you mind emailing (or PMing) me a copy of your spreadsheet? I like the layout.

Okay, I just sent it to you, but . . . . . . . .

 ;)  . . . . . . Remember!  You're askin' for it!!! . . . . . . (http://www.canebas.org/Weather/LWC_forum/Custom_emoticons/computer_sock_it_to_me.gif)

 [lol2]

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: October report for the Northern California 2014-15 rainy season.
Post by: elagache on November 01, 2014, 09:15:07 PM
Dear WeatherCat drought watchers,

Here is the October precipitation report and sadly it definitely isn't good.

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Orinda%20rainfall%202014-2015/Cum_rainfall_2014-2015_oct.jpg)

As before this is a comparison of observed rainfall at Canebas Weather station with seasonal averages for Orinda as reported by: idcide.com.    October brought a number of storms but all fell significantly short in rainfall.  Only 56% of the normal rainfall was received this October.  To date for the 2014-2015 wet season only 21% of the expected rainfall has fallen.  So indeed the drought continues.

Oh well,. . . . . . (http://www.canebas.org/Weather/LWC_forum/Custom_emoticons/desert-smiley.gif)

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: November report for the Northern California 2014-15 rainy season.
Post by: elagache on December 01, 2014, 09:18:45 PM
Dear WeatherCat drought watchers,

Here is the November precipitation report and sadly it still isn't good.

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Orinda%20rainfall%202014-2015/Cum_rainfall_2014-2015_nov.jpg)

As before this is a comparison of observed rainfall at Canebas Weather station with seasonal averages for Orinda as reported by: idcide.com (http://www.idcide.com/weather/ca/orinda.htm).    Like October, November brought a number of storms but all fell significantly short in rainfall.  Only 60% of the normal rainfall was received this November.  The only good news is that November represents a sizable fraction of the total rainfall, so even with the below average rainfall, we caught up to being 60% of a normal rainfall to November.

There is a monster storm supposed to hit us tonight through Wednesday, so that should put us into the plus column for the start of December.  Also the Climate Predication Center is forecasting above normal rainfall for December.  So, we'll see if we can play catch-up or not.

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: December's report (Re: Northern California 2014-15 rainy season.)
Post by: elagache on January 02, 2015, 10:30:29 PM
Dear WeatherCat drought watchers,

Here is the December precipitation report for Northern California and at last there is good news!

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Orinda%20rainfall%202014-2015/Cum_rainfall_2014-2015_dec.jpg)

In December we got almost 3 times the normal rainfall for the month.  As a result, we more than caught up for all the previous months of drought.  We are somewhat ahead of January.  At the moment we are once more suffering from a blocking high-pressure.  However, there is a chance of rain next week and if the CPC predication for January to March turns out correct, that should be enough to break the drought for at least Northern California.

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: January's report (Re: Northern California 2014-15 rainy season.)
Post by: elagache on February 01, 2015, 10:11:35 PM
Dear WeatherCat drought watchers,

Here is the January precipitation report for Northern California and sadly there was a complete reversal from December.  This is the graph I have of the difference from normal rainfall at the end of the day yesterday:

(http://www.canebas.org/misc/Voila_images/No%20rainfall%20at%20all%20January%202015.jpg)

As you can see, there wasn't a single bucket tip at Canebas weather station for all of January.  As a result, the overall precipitation graph is identical to December:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Orinda%20rainfall%202014-2015/Cum_rainfall_2014-2015_dec.jpg)

The blocking high pressure that appeared at the end of December has remained through the entire month of January.  We go no rain at all which is a record and most of the San Francisco Bay Area also set that abysmal record that obviously can only be tied.

The current forecast is more encouraging.  At the end of next week we are supposed to have another "atmospheric river" phenomenon that should bring a good amount of rain at least to the northern part of the region.  However, the latest forecasts from the climate predication center aren't encouraging at all.  The drought in California is now expected to get worse.

Oh well, . . . .

Edouard
Title: Re: Monthly reports for the Northern California 2014-15 rainy season.
Post by: LesCimes on February 02, 2015, 07:41:44 PM
Bummer. Our area went through a prolonged drought a few years ago - five years or so of subnormal rainfall. The Chattahoochee River, which flows through Atlanta, reached historic low levels. Municipalities, farmers and industry below Atlanta got very concerned about their water supply. Ended up in court - Georgia Water Wars - with Florida, Alabama and Georgia suing one another over water rights. Then North Carolina jumped in for good measure. Worst flooding in a century rendered the immediate concerns, insufficient water supply, moot, but they are still trying to sort through the ramifications of water rights.
Title: Civility in short supply (Re: Northern California 2014-15 rainy season. )
Post by: elagache on February 02, 2015, 11:20:53 PM
Dear LesCimes and WeatherCat water resource watchers,

Bummer. Our area went through a prolonged drought a few years ago - five years or so of subnormal rainfall. The Chattahoochee River, which flows through Atlanta, reached historic low levels. Municipalities, farmers and industry below Atlanta got very concerned about their water supply. Ended up in court - Georgia Water Wars - with Florida, Alabama and Georgia suing one another over water rights. Then North Carolina jumped in for good measure. Worst flooding in a century rendered the immediate concerns, insufficient water supply, moot, but they are still trying to sort through the ramifications of water rights.

Sadly, "water wars" is a fine art practiced all over California.  Instead of working together to make sure we have sufficient water for everyone, political bullying is used to steal water from others who don't have the political muscle.  Considering that droughts which would bring down civilization in California have been observed in tree rings, this sort of infantile behavior is utterly inexcusable. 

Oh well, . . . .

Edouard
Title: Re: Monthly reports for the Northern California 2014-15 rainy season.
Post by: LesCimes on February 03, 2015, 11:01:35 PM
Alas, it isn't just water wars that we fight.
Title: Feburary's report (Re: Northern California 2014-15 rainy season.)
Post by: elagache on March 01, 2015, 10:15:01 PM
Dear WeatherCat drought watchers,

Another month and alas more bad news.  Here is the rainfall graph updated with February's totals:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Orinda%20rainfall%202014-2015/Cum_rainfall_2014-2015_Feb.jpg)

We did get some rain in February but only about 60% of normal.  That leaves us with 80% of normal to date, but since most of that rain fell in December, the situation is more dire that the 80% figure suggests.  The latest climate forecasts aren' t encouraging either.

Oh well, . . .

Edouard
Title: Re: Monthly reports for the Northern California 2014-15 rainy season.
Post by: LesCimes on March 03, 2015, 02:02:42 AM
Pretty fascinating to see these stats but a real bummer for those on the ground. The consequences, obviously, are not trivial. Hope the pattern shifts for you Californians soon.
Title: March results (Re: Northern California 2014-15 rainy season.)
Post by: elagache on April 02, 2015, 12:08:54 AM
Dear WeatherCat drought watchers,

I'm afraid the news is just getting worse for the California drought.  We only got 0.21" in March - about 5% of normal:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Orinda%20rainfall%202014-2015/Cum_rainfall_2014-2015_mar.jpg)

That leaves Orinda with about 67% of normal rainfall to April first.  However, essentially all that rainfall fell in the deluge of December and only the water that was saved in reservoirs remains.  What snowpack fell must be long gone with warm winter and spring.  Our governor announced today mandatory 25% water conservation although details were missing.  He also mentioned that he was "studying" measures to streamline drought relief efforts and develop new infrastructure to provide water.  Clearly our governor doesn't have a rain gauge at his residence as he apparently didn't notice the problem has been going on since January.

So much for politicians who can . . . . . lead (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/pout.gif)

Oh well, . . . . . Edouard
Title: Re: Monthly reports for the Northern California 2014-15 rainy season.
Post by: LesCimes on April 02, 2015, 01:22:25 AM
Just read in the paper that the governor of California is mandating water restrictions! Report said it is the driest it has been out there in 65 years.
Title: Actor - not leader . . . . (Re: Northern California 2014-15 rainy season. )
Post by: elagache on April 02, 2015, 11:14:20 PM
Dear Michael and WeatherCat disappointed observers of our political system.

Just read in the paper that the governor of California is mandating water restrictions! Report said it is the driest it has been out there in 65 years.

I don't know if your paper mentioned the theatrics that Jerry Brown went to in making the announcement.  The press conference was held on a field of dead grass where normally there would be several feet of snow accumulated at this time of year.  So our "dear" governor went to a lot of trouble to make his announcement as dramatic and compelling as possible.  I wouldn't be surprised if Brown's staff have been planning this announcement for months.

The trouble with all this is of course all that planning could have been instead focused on actually doing something that would help the situation.  Brown has now dished out the pain and done absolutely nothing to provide any relief either in the short term or the long term.  Certainly at this point, building more desalination plants would seem to be highly-desirable and these can be built quite quickly.  If the governor had jumped on this back in January, there is a chance some plants would be online before the end of the summer.  However, . . . . . all we've got is an actor and thanks to that everyone in California will suffer more than necessary.

Oh well, . . . . . Edouard (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/pout.gif)
Title: Re: Monthly reports for the Northern California 2014-15 rainy season.
Post by: jace on April 03, 2015, 12:13:44 PM
Edouard and sunny clime enthusiasts in the former colonies.
 
I dinna think that realistically that any Governor anywhere would be able to push the construction and commissioning of a desalination plant in the timescale that you mention, let alone the number and size of plants that you would need to give the volume of fresh water that is required.

Who is going to build them, private companies or the state ? Where is the funding coming from ? What about the environmentalists ? After all somebody may wish to build a plant on the only spot where the Lesser Known Uncommon Spotted Californian SandFly breeds, thus wiping out an entire species of irritating blood-sucking Dipteran.

   [interesting] comments here: http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Desalination-plants-a-pricey-option-if-drought-5239096.php (http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Desalination-plants-a-pricey-option-if-drought-5239096.php)

Oh, as an aside, over here we end up with water restrictions after about 4 -6 weeks of below average rainfall, this in a country where it seems to rain almost every day !  [rainy]


Title: Desalination plants can be built quickly (Was: CA 2014-15 rainy season.)
Post by: elagache on April 03, 2015, 10:37:02 PM
Dear JC and WeatherCat drought observers,

I dinna think that realistically that any Governor anywhere would be able to push the construction and commissioning of a desalination plant in the timescale that you mention

This plants actually can be built in a hurry.  It has been done for communities around San Diego during earlier droughts.


let alone the number and size of plants that you would need to give the volume of fresh water that is required.

Of course not, but any supplement sources of water means that rationing doesn't have to be as harsh.


Who is going to build them, private companies or the state ? Where is the funding coming from ? What about the environmentalists ? After all somebody may wish to build a plant on the only spot where the Lesser Known Uncommon Spotted Californian SandFly breeds, thus wiping out an entire species of irritating blood-sucking Dipteran.

Well, during World War II the United States accomplished some amazing things.  What it takes is 1.) a recognition of a crisis and 2.) leadership.

Item #1 is taken care of, Item #2 is most definitely lacking . . . .  (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/pout.gif)

Oh well, . . . Edouard  :(
Title: April's report (Re: Northern California 2014-15 rainy season. )
Post by: elagache on April 30, 2015, 11:35:53 PM
Dear WeatherCat drought watchers,

April has turned out to be a surprise.  We got 14% above normal rains for the month of April.  It is the first time since December that we've had a month of above normal rainfall:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Orinda%20rainfall%202014-2015/Cum_rainfall_2014-2015_apr.jpg)

That extra rain meant that to date, Orinda has received 70% of a normal rainfall.  Given how gloomy things are, it is worth asking the question what would happen if no rains fall in May or June.  That would leave Orinda with 67% of normal rainfall for the 2014-15 rainy season.  Unfortunately, that isn't were most of our water comes from and the snow-pack is essentially nonexistent.  Reservoirs were already depleted from the 2013-14 season, so clearly California is in a mighty deep hole.

Oh well, . . . . Edouard
Title: May's report (Re: Northern California 2014-15 rainy season. )
Post by: elagache on May 31, 2015, 10:59:44 PM
Dear WeatherCat drought watchers,

May brought a return to well below normal precipitation.   While the month has been unusually cool and cloudy, only 0.08" of rain fell which is only 13% of the normal rainfall for the month.  It was so little that the graph basically shows no change.

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Orinda%20rainfall%202014-2015/Cum_rainfall_2014-2015_may.jpg)

With that weak performance, Orinda has received 68% of a normal rainfall to the end of May.  So little rain falls in June that if no more rain falls, the overall results for the 2014-2015 wet season would remain at 68% of normal.

I have upgraded to drip irrigation were practical, so our water use is greatly reduced.  However, even such technology has its vulnerabilities.  This morning, one of our drip circuits had a fountain instead of the normal drip action.  When I checked, an animal(s) had chewed on at least 5 emitters damaging them so either they could drip or failed all together.  Barring a miracle, we won't get any significant rain until late October or later.  It is going to be one  L O N G  dry-spell . . . (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/shrug_shoulders_confused.gif)

Oh well, . . . . Edouard
Title: Final report (Re: Northern California 2014-15 rainy season.)
Post by: elagache on June 30, 2015, 09:51:41 PM
Dear WeatherCat drought watchers,

Since California uses a July 1 to June 30 calendar to record rainfall, today is the last day of the 2014-2015 rainy season.  Therefore here is the final graph of that season:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Orinda%20rainfall%202014-2015/Cum_rainfall_2014-2015_june.jpg)

By June standards, it was a above normal month for rainfall.  The 0.25" of rain received on June 10th was almost double the normal of 0.15".  Alas, in the overall year, it was nothing more than a drop in the bucket and hardly met the water needs for the month.  For comparison, the Penman?Monteith estimate of grass evapotranspiration for the month of June is over 4.6 inches already and the day isn't over.

Still the additional rainfall created one modest correction to the 2014-25 statistics.  It was sufficient to raise the percentage of normal rainfall at Canebas weather station from 68% to 69%.

So far there hasn't been any additional rainfall from the monsoons.  Rain is falling in southern California and monsoonal moisture is reaching northern California, but in insufficient quantities to bring any rainfall.  The missing ingredient appears to be hurricane activity in the eastern Pacific.  After 3 hurricanes in short order, none have been formed since.  So dry northern California continues to hope for rain . . . . (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/desert-smiley.gif)

Oh well, . . .  Edouard . .  [sweat2]