Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,
It is the first of November and here are the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service -
Climate Predication Center for the middle of Autumn. Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for November:
It is a curious forecast where the west is clearly expected to be warm while much the rest of the country is expected to be colder..
Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for November through January:
This is back to the "hot everywhere" forecast that we periodically see.
Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for November:
Like last month, there is considerably uncertainty. Alas, parts of the west as well as parts of the Midwest are expected to be below normal.
Here is the equivalent graph for November to January:
Once more there is a large band of above normal rainfall expected. Alas, Northern California and the region around the mouth of the Mississippi river are expected to receive below normal rainfall.
On to drought forecasts. Here is the drought outlook for November:
There is a large region of drought expected to persist around the 4-corners region. The 3 month outlook continues this trend:
In addition to the 4-corners region, parts of Texas are expected to experience continued drought. A drought is expected in Northern California as a result of the diminished rainfall.
Here are the Wildfire predictions. These come from the
NICC - National Interagency Coordination Center. These come only monthly. Here is the updated November:
This forecast follows the rainfall predictions with the continued risks through much of California. Here is the December's outlook.
Central and southern California continues to be at risk while the rest of the country is normal or at a lower risk than normal. Here is January:
It isn't until January that the increased risk from wildfires finally disappears in California.
As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . .
Edouard