Author Topic: Latest forecast - a STRONG El Ni?o for 2015-16  (Read 2632 times)

elagache

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Latest forecast - a STRONG El Ni?o for 2015-16
« on: June 11, 2015, 09:57:45 PM »
Dear WeatherCat global weather monitors,

The latest update on El Nino forecast is good for those who get better weather during an El Ni?o:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

The headline reads:

Quote
There is a greater than 90% chance that El Ni?o will continue through Northern Hemisphere fall 2015, and around an 85% chance it will last through the 2015-16 winter.

Buried in the text you will find:

Quote
Nearly all models predict El Ni?o to continue throughout 2015, with many predicting SST anomalies to increase into the late fall 2015 (Fig. 6). For the fall and early winter, the consensus of forecasters slightly favors a strong event (3-month values of the Ni?o-3.4 index +1.5oC or greater), relative to a weaker event. However, this prediction may vary in the months ahead as strength forecasts are the most challenging aspect of ENSO prediction. A moderate, weak, or even no El Ni?o remains possible, though at increasingly lesser odds.

As they state, winter is a long way away and to repeat the quote: "strength forecasts are the most challenging aspect of ENSO prediction."

Still, this is something to either hope for or dread depending on which end of an El Ni?o you find yourself facing.

Cheers, Edouard

HantaYo

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Re: Latest forecast - a STRONG El Ni?o for 2015-16
« Reply #1 on: June 12, 2015, 01:46:10 AM »
I am hoping for a White Christmas  [snow]

elagache

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July forecast - still a STRONG El Ni?o for 2015-16
« Reply #2 on: July 09, 2015, 11:24:38 PM »
Dear WeatherCat drought watchers,

The July prediction for El Nino is in and it continues the forecast from last month:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

The most important text is below:

Quote
Nearly all models predict El Ni?o to continue into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, with many multi-model averages predicting a strong event at its peak strength (3-month values of the Ni?o-3.4 index of +1.5oC or greater; Fig. 6). At this time, the forecaster consensus is in favor of a significant El Ni?o in excess of +1.5oC in the Ni?o-3.4 region. Overall, there is a greater than 90% chance that El Ni?o will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, and around an 80% chance it will last into early spring 2016 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

Across the contiguous United States, temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Ni?o are expected to remain minimal during the Northern Hemisphere summer and increase into the late fall and winter (the 3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday July 16th). El Ni?o will likely contribute to a below normal Atlantic hurricane season, and to above-normal hurricane seasons in both the central and eastern Pacific hurricane basins (click Hurricane season outlook for more).

Interesting to me is that this forecast includes an increase in the eastern Pacific hurricane basins.  After a strong start, hurricanes on our side of the Pacific have been basically nonexistent.  As a result, since June 11, we haven't gotten any much needed summer rains.   If El Ni?o were to increase the hurricane activity near the west coast of the United States, that might bring monsoonal moisture to places that normally don't get it and start providing drought relief early.

The downside with this forecast is the feast or famine nature of it.  If California is pounded by severe weather after 4 years of drought, lots of fallen trees, landslides and worse are basically a certainty.  No matter what, things look rough for the western part of the United States.

Edouard

HantaYo

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Re: Latest forecast - a STRONG El Ni?o for 2015-16
« Reply #3 on: July 12, 2015, 01:38:04 AM »
Quote
The downside with this forecast is the feast or famine nature of it.  If California is pounded by severe weather after 4 years of drought, lots of fallen trees, landslides and worse are basically a certainty.  No matter what, things look rough for the western part of the United States.

Unfortunately, the new weather paradigm for the west.

elagache

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Worries about continued drought. (Re: STRONG El Ni?o for 2015-16)
« Reply #4 on: July 12, 2015, 10:53:41 PM »
Dear HantaYo and WeatherCat climate watchers,

Unfortunately, the new weather paradigm for the west.

I suspect there is a new looming weather paradigm for the west but I'm not sure what it is.  This summer is shaping up to be very much like the previous few drought years.  It mostly cooler than normal, but there are brief episodes of heat, and after that, monsoonal moisture is driven towards our area.  We picked up 0.02" of rain Thursday night.  Definitely no help for the drought, but very unusual for northern California nonetheless.

I don't know how an aggressive El Ni?o will interact with the new climate patterns I'm observing.  If a large high pressure positions itself over the western United States like it has the past three winters, the storms will still be blocked.

So, I'm afraid we shouldn't count on our reservoirs being filled up - until they really are full.

Edouard