Dear Blick and WeatherCat drought watchers,
We have an inch of snow projected for this Sunday and up to 3 inches predicted for Thursday. In the meantime, our high mountain valleys have incredibly bad inversions, which will only be cleared out by the snowstorms so I am hoping they happen as forecast.
Well, I"m glad that you are seeing a change in the weather pattern.
I heard on the radio today that California had a mostly normal winter and is back to dry now. Sorry Edouard.
Well, I think northern California has ended up with close to normal rainfall totals, but the south has been drier than normal which is not what is expected for El Ni?o. Also the rainfall hasn't been falling in a way that is normal for the north. Autumn was drier than normal and we basically caught up because of extra rain in December and January.
Indeed we are suffering from this demon high pressure ridge. However, the forecast models are continuing to show it will be broken down later this week and the models aren't showing the ridge immediately rebuilding after all. The moisture taps that El Ni?o generates should still be out there. In the past, El Ni?o has tended to produce two episodes of heavy rain: at the start of winter and the start of spring. If that pattern holds up, the West may eek out at least partial relief from the drought.
Nonetheless, there is something really weird going on here. It does look ominously like processes of climate change are already underway. This is where climate science really needs to step up to the plate and inform society of what we can realistically expect. Without better predictions of what to expect in the future - we are stuck with nothing more than hoping for precipitation and that clearly isn't enough to make it happen.
Edouard