Howdy Stu, JC, and WeatherCat fans,
Yep, that about sums it up JC
Well then, if the weather is so consistent, why travel so far to experience it? It rained solid and was cold Wednesday through Friday, Saturday was a little better (it stopped raining but was still chilly ) then things improved just as we were leaving (which is pretty typical).
Having said that, at the moment the temperature is 22.5?C (72.5?F), sunny and dry!
However, this raises a much more interesting topic associated with weather forecasting models during holiday periods. We are all familiar with models like
NAM,
GFS, and
ECMWF. However, less widely known, but equally important in making an accurate weather forecast around holiday periods are the
CCFM (Chamber of Commerce Forecast Model) and the dreaded
MFM (
Murphy Forecast Model.
)
Perhaps not surprisingly, the
CCFM is extremely consistent:
"The weather will be sunny, beautiful, and mild - go out and spend money!" This forecast becomes oddly "important" around major holidays like the US Memorial day weekend (coming up.)
However, forecasters who wish to be "safe" should always show deference to
MFM which basically says:
"When weather can play it's part to make things go wrong, of course it will, and in the obligatory worse possible way." At the moment, in Northern California there is a low pressure forecast to "snoop around" just as the 3-day weekend begins. At the beginning of the week, the
MFM was getting more weight from the forecasters of the National Weather Service. However, as the holiday approaches, the
CCFM is now dominating the forecast with reassurances
"yes, go ahead and enjoy the Memorial Day Weekend (i.e. spend money! )"All, this however needs to be factored into the reliability of the
MFM in forecasting the Memorial day weekend. I used to make a pligrimages to Southern California to attend the
Riverside Telescope Makers conference in
Big Bear Like. Keep in mind this is
Southern California (San Bernardino County) and this event always happens in late May (almost summer.) Still both times, snow fell on us!!
Once we drove up to the park entrance late at night before it opened the next day. Exhausted from the long drive, we tossed a tarp next to the entrance road and slept in the open air. So imagine our surprise when we woke up to snowflakes on our sleeping bag.
It is one of the few times my trusty wagon has been in the snow.
So when contemplating a trip,
never underestimate the importance of the
MFM!! Happy vacation planning!!
Cheers, Edouard
P.S. Yup, you guessed it!
The trusty wagon, telescopes, and me are all staying home this Memorial day weekend!!