Author Topic: A year without either an El Niño or a La Niña?  (Read 1311 times)

xairbusdriver

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Re: A year without either an El Niño or a La Niña?
« Reply #15 on: May 15, 2018, 01:08:32 AM »
I think the key word in that “explanation” is hedges...

Blicj11

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Re: A year without either an El Niño or a La Niña?
« Reply #16 on: May 16, 2018, 01:19:32 AM »
Their guess may be more scientific than mine, but mine is just as probable.
Blick


elagache

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Dear Blick and WeatherCat gamblers on da' weather,

Their guess may be more scientific than mine, but mine is just as probable.

 [wink] . . . . Oh I dunno'  50% odds are simply a coin toss, but your odds are much better in a coin toss if you happen to sneak in a two-headed coin! . .  lol(1)

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]

elagache

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El Niño watch? (Re: El Niño or La Niña? )
« Reply #18 on: July 07, 2018, 12:25:16 AM »
Dear WeatherCat observers of El Niño and La Niña,

Just when you thought it was safe to turn your television back on - the El Niño La Niña soap opera is back!  The folks at the climate prediction center and friends have issued a El Niño watch on June 14th:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_jun2018/ensodisc.shtml

The punch line reads:

ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere summer 2018, with the chance for El Niño increasing to 50% during fall, and ~65% during winter 2018-19

The key text is as follows:

Quote
The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict ENSO-neutral to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2018, with El Niño most likely thereafter [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus favors the onset of El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere fall, which would then continue through winter. These forecasts are supported by the ongoing build-up of heat within the tropical Pacific Ocean. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere summer 2018, with the chance for El Niño increasing to 50% during fall, and ~65% during winter 2018-19 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

So what does this mean for us mere morals . . . . . . . who knows?

Oh well, . . . . Edouard

Blicj11

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Re: A year without either an El Niño or a La Niña?
« Reply #19 on: July 07, 2018, 01:26:07 AM »
Remember the old Saturday Night Live clips where Chris Farley translated Spanish into English for us?

"I am El Niño! All other tropical storms must bow before El Niño! ¡Yo soy El Niño! For those of you who don't habla español, 'El Niño' is Spanish for ... 'the Niño'!"
Blick


elagache

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Sticking to their El Niño prediction (Re: El Niño or a La Niña?)
« Reply #20 on: August 03, 2018, 12:31:54 AM »
Dear viewers of the El Niño or a La Niña soap opera,

The July update didn't make any headlines so I missed it until now.  However the forecast continues to be for a El Niño event for this autumn and winter.  Here is the link:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_jul2018/ensodisc.shtml

The summary reads as follows: "ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere summer 2018, with the chance for El Niño increasing to about 65% during fall, and to about 70% during winter 2018-19"

Wikipedia has a list of regional impacts based on overall research:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o#Regional_impacts

According to the same Wikipedia article, the recent El Niño events are listed here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o#Occurrences

The last two are the end of 2009-10 and 2014-15.  My station went up in October 2009, so I don't have the 2009-10 winter.  The 2014-15 event was the worst drought episode recorded by my station.

On the other hand, according to Wikipedia the La Niña events are:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Ni%C3%B1a#Occurrences

That includes most of 2010 and 2016-17 wet years.  That is consistent with the overall observation that La Niña events bring additional rainfall to Northern California:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Ni%C3%B1a#North_America

It seems to me that at least for Northern California, El Niño now brings droughts while La Niña events seem to intensify atmospheric rivers.  So depending on where you are in the Western United States, this could be another tough and dry winter.

Oh well, . . . . . Edouard

Blicj11

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Re: Sticking to their El Niño prediction (Re: El Niño or a La Niña?)
« Reply #21 on: August 03, 2018, 04:51:30 AM »
It seems to me that at least for Northern California, El Niño now brings droughts while La Niña events seem to intensify atmospheric rivers.  So depending on where you

Just the kind of news we do not need. I'd rather hear about the Buick.
Blick


elagache

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Continued El Niño watch (Re: El Niño or a La Niña?)
« Reply #22 on: August 26, 2018, 10:14:15 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

I've been so busy that I haven't been on the Climate Prediction Center website much.  As a result, I missed the August 9th update on El Niño.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The synopsis makes the key points:  "There is ~60% chance of El Niño in the Northern Hemisphere fall 2018 (September-November), increasing to ~70% during winter 2018-19. "

What caught my attention is that El Niño is already being blamed for the quiet Atlantic hurricane season.  There is a NOAA press release lowering number of expected storms:

http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-forecasters-lower-atlantic-hurricane-season-prediction

We are almost at the end of August so it does look like the  Atlantic hurricane season will be much quieter than last year's.  It is obvious that these changes in Pacific ocean temperatures have a global effect.  So wherever you live, try to brace as best you can for whatever El Niño brings to your corner of da' planet.

Oh well, . . . . . . Edouard

Blicj11

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Re: A year without either an El Niño or a La Niña?
« Reply #23 on: August 27, 2018, 05:50:27 PM »
Thanks for the update. Yesterday I drove through a corridor of the Utah wildfires. Amazing amount of acreage burned and lots of smoke. Many of these fires may burn until it snows. If it snows.
Blick


elagache

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With a suitable apocalyptic spin . . . . (Re: El Niño or a La Niña? )
« Reply #24 on: August 27, 2018, 11:30:58 PM »
Dear Blick and WeatherCat "will somebody stop the world so can get out!" types, .. . . .

. . . . . . Many of these fires may burn until it snows. If it snows.

 [wink] . . . . . . Well, it might snow when . . . . . hell freezes over! . . .  lol(1)

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]

elagache

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Continued El Niño watch (Re: El Niño or a La Niña?)
« Reply #25 on: October 13, 2018, 10:23:42 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

This week the experts on such things made their latest pronouncement on the El Niño - La Niña situation.  The El Niño Watch remains in effect as you can read here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The key points are as follows:  "The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict El Niño to form during the fall and continue through the winter. The official forecast favors the formation of a weak El Niño, consistent with the recent strengthening of westerly wind anomalies and positive temperature trends in the surface and subsurface ocean. In summary, El Niño is favored to form in the next couple of months and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (70-75% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period)."

Unfortunately exactly what this means for us mere inhabitants of planet Earth remains very much less clear.

Such are da' conditions that prevail, . . . . .

Cheers, Edouard

Blicj11

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Re: A year without either an El Niño or a La Niña?
« Reply #26 on: October 13, 2018, 11:06:06 PM »
Here in the mountains of Northern Utah we have received an unprecedented 4.85 inches of precipitation since October 1. This is 4 times the monthly average and enough to reduce our area one status level in drought severity. Sure would be nice if this kept up although now nothing of the sort in the forecast.
Blick