Trixology

Weather => General Weather Discussion => Topic started by: elagache on February 14, 2017, 11:06:44 PM

Title: 2016-17 La Ni?a event had ended.
Post by: elagache on February 14, 2017, 11:06:44 PM
Dear WeatherCat global climate watchers,

Without much fanfare, the Final La Ni?a Advisory was issued on February 9th:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

To quote from the discussion:

Quote
Most models predict the continuation of ENSO-neutral (3-month average Ni?o-3.4 index between -0.5?C and 0.5?C) through the Northern Hemisphere summer [Fig. 6]. However, a few dynamical model forecasts, including the NCEP CFSv2, anticipate an onset of El Ni?o as soon as the Northern Hemisphere spring (March-May 2017). Because of typically high uncertainty in forecasts made at this time of the year for the upcoming spring and summer, and the lingering La Ni?a-like tropical convection patterns, the forecaster consensus favors ENSO-neutral during the spring with a ~60% chance. Thereafter, there are increasing odds for El Ni?o toward the second half of 2017 (~50% chance in September-November).

If these forecasts are correct, we might go from a La Ni?a winter to an El Ni?o winter in 2017-18.  Considering that this year is anything but a "typical" La Ni?a winter - what this might mean is . . . . . .anybody's guess . . . . . (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/confused_do_no.gif)

Oh well, . . . . . Edouard
Title: Re: 2016-17 La Ni?a event had ended.
Post by: Blicj11 on February 15, 2017, 12:19:46 AM
If these forecasts are correct, we might go from a La Ni?a winter to an El Ni?o winter in 2017-18.  Considering that this year is anything but a "typical" La Ni?a winter - what this might mean is . . . . . .anybody's guess . . . . . (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/confused_do_no.gif)

Amen!!