Author Topic: A year without either an El Niño or a La Niña?  (Read 306 times)

elagache

  • Global Moderator
  • Storm
  • *****
  • Posts: 4453
    • DW3835
    • KCAORIND10
    • Canebas Weather
  • Station Details: Davis Vantage Pro-2, MacBook Pro (Mid 2009)
A year without either an El Niño or a La Niña?
« on: July 15, 2017, 10:19:39 PM »
Dear WeatherCat Climate watchers,

Mid-summer is the first opportunity for use to get some idea of what we might expect in terms of El Niño or La Niña effects on our upcoming winter.  Well the prognosticators have weighed and the answer is - neutral!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

As the synopsis reads:

ENSO-neutral is favored (~50 to 55% chance) into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18

So does that mean we might have a "normal" winter this year?  I suppose we could always hope , but I sure wouldn't count on it!

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]

elagache

  • Global Moderator
  • Storm
  • *****
  • Posts: 4453
    • DW3835
    • KCAORIND10
    • Canebas Weather
  • Station Details: Davis Vantage Pro-2, MacBook Pro (Mid 2009)
La Niña watch? (Re: El Niño or La Niña? )
« Reply #1 on: September 16, 2017, 10:46:26 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Earlier this summer, the Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWSand the International Research Institute for Climate and Society folks had predicted a neutral year with neither an El Niño or La Niña event.  Well things have changed and we are now under a La Niña watch.  Here is the report:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

Here is a quote for the most relevant bit:

Quote
A majority of the models in the IRI/CPC suite of Niño-3.4 predictions favor ENSO-neutral through the Northern Hemisphere 2017-18 winter [Fig. 6]. However, the most recent predictions from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) and the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) indicate the formation of La Niña as soon as the Northern Hemisphere fall 2017 [Fig. 7]. Forecasters favor these predictions in part because of the recent cooling of surface and sub-surface temperature anomalies, and also because of the higher degree of forecast skill at this time of year. In summary, there is an increasing chance (~55-60%) of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

The past few La Niña events have caused atmospheric rivers to become more intense and has brought a lot of moisture to the Western United States.  For those who forgot, last year was a La Niña:

http://athena.trixology.com/index.php?topic=2221.msg22663#msg22663

So we may be in for another wet winter.

We'll just have to wait and see . . . . . .

Cheers, Edouard

Blicj11

  • Storm
  • *****
  • Posts: 2536
    • EW3808
    • KUTHEBER6
    • Timber Lakes Utah
  • Station Details: Davis Vantage Pro2 Plus | WeatherLinkIP™ Data Logger | iMac (late 2013), 3.5 GHz Intel Core i7, 24 GB RAM, macOS Sierra | Sharx SCNC2900 Webcam | Supportive Wife
Re: La Niña watch? (Re: El Niño or La Niña? )
« Reply #2 on: September 24, 2017, 06:41:00 AM »
So we may be in for another wet winter.

Sign me up.
Blick


elagache

  • Global Moderator
  • Storm
  • *****
  • Posts: 4453
    • DW3835
    • KCAORIND10
    • Canebas Weather
  • Station Details: Davis Vantage Pro-2, MacBook Pro (Mid 2009)
Beware of what you wish for . . . . (Re: La Niña watch?)
« Reply #3 on: September 24, 2017, 10:14:25 PM »
Dear Blick and WeatherCat Western US drought flood? watchers?!?!??

So we may be in for another wet winter.

Sign me up.

I certainly don't want the drought to start up again, but the rains definitely did a lot of damage around here.  The roads have suffered a lot because of the extremes of the soil.  In the middle of the rains the ground swelled a great deal and now with the very hot and dry summer, the ground has contracted to another extreme.  California rode out last winter mostly in stride, but our luck might not hold out if we get battered by a series of atmospheric rivers again.

I sure wish moderation would once more return to "climatological fashion."

Grin and bear it!  Edouard

elagache

  • Global Moderator
  • Storm
  • *****
  • Posts: 4453
    • DW3835
    • KCAORIND10
    • Canebas Weather
  • Station Details: Davis Vantage Pro-2, MacBook Pro (Mid 2009)
La Niña watch for another month. (Re: El Niño or La Niña? )
« Reply #4 on: October 16, 2017, 11:38:35 PM »
Dear WeatherCat types affected by El Niño and/or La Niña,

The CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society have updated their El Niño /La Niña predictions and we continue to be under a La Niña watch.  Here is the full briefing:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The punch-line is: "La Niña conditions are favored (~55-65%) during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18."

This is further bolstered by the puzzling technical jargon to be found in the discussion for the first storm expected for this year on Thursday.  The offending sentence reads as follows (key text with my emphasis) :

"IVT progs are focusing on Thursday evening being the best shot for moderate rainfall (coverage has decreased, but a narrow band of values over 500 KG/m/s are now indicated)."

To those who forgot from last year - IVT stands for Integrated Water Vapor Transport and Kg/m/s is a measure of how much water vapor is being transported.  In other words, by decoding the technical jargon, it is clear that there was already the possibility for an atmospheric river event this early in October.  The forecast has since downgraded the potential rainfall, but those of you in harm's way of atmospheric rivers might want to start preparing . . . . . just in case! . . .

Cheers, Edouard

Blicj11

  • Storm
  • *****
  • Posts: 2536
    • EW3808
    • KUTHEBER6
    • Timber Lakes Utah
  • Station Details: Davis Vantage Pro2 Plus | WeatherLinkIP™ Data Logger | iMac (late 2013), 3.5 GHz Intel Core i7, 24 GB RAM, macOS Sierra | Sharx SCNC2900 Webcam | Supportive Wife
Re: La Niña watch for another month. (Re: El Niño or La Niña? )
« Reply #5 on: October 17, 2017, 07:00:22 PM »
The forecast has since downgraded the potential rainfall, but those of you in harm's way of atmospheric rivers might want to start preparing . . . . . just in case! . . .

I am preparing the ark.
Blick


elagache

  • Global Moderator
  • Storm
  • *****
  • Posts: 4453
    • DW3835
    • KCAORIND10
    • Canebas Weather
  • Station Details: Davis Vantage Pro-2, MacBook Pro (Mid 2009)
Is that why you are into computers? (Re: El Niño or La Niña? )
« Reply #6 on: October 18, 2017, 12:31:49 AM »
Dear "Noah"  ;) and WeatherCat "survivalists," . . . . .  [biggrin]

I am preparing the ark.

[wink] . . . Well if you are going to all that trouble, perhaps you should "supersize" the Biblical dimensions for your ark, since it seems that we have identified quite a few more species than the Old Testament would have suggested.  You also probably need all your binary math skills you can muster so you count all those animals one and then two to make sure you have a pair!! . . . .  lol(1)

Cheers, Edouard  [biggrin]

elagache

  • Global Moderator
  • Storm
  • *****
  • Posts: 4453
    • DW3835
    • KCAORIND10
    • Canebas Weather
  • Station Details: Davis Vantage Pro-2, MacBook Pro (Mid 2009)
It's official: a La Niña Advisory. (Re: El Niño or La Niña? )
« Reply #7 on: November 13, 2017, 12:06:20 AM »
Dear WeatherCat climate observers,

Those folks at the Climate Predication Center and and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society have made if official.  We are now under a La Niña Advisory:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The summary reads:  "La Niña conditions are predicted to continue (~65-75% chance) at least through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18. "

The key points of discussion can be summarized as follows:

" During October, weak La Niña conditions emerged as reflected by below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

. . . .

For the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18, a weak La Niña is favored in the model averages of the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] and also in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) [Fig. 7]. The consensus of forecasters is for the event to continue through approximately February-April 2018. In summary, La Niña conditions are predicted to continue (~65-75% chance) at least through the Northern Hemisphere winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period). "


So for all of you affected by La Niña events, the next question is to figure out exactly what do La Niña event actually does to your location.  There was a time when La Niñas caused drought in the Western United States.  However, between the fact that last year as also a La Niña and the current forecast for the rest of November, I decided to clean the storm drains this afternoon.  Alas, of course they needed more cleaning than I had hoped.   When it comes to home maintenance, the work is never done . . . .

Oh well, . . . . . Edouard